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8 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

@mathnerd

California https://abc7news.com/health/live-gov-newsom-gives-update-on-ca-coronavirus-outbreak/5906450/

“5 p.m.

Schools could be out until summer break, Newsom says


During a press conference on Tuesday, Governor Gavin Newsom announced that individuals should plan for the possibility that students will not go back to school before summer break”

:sad: I expected it to happen. As the mayor of San Jose said yesterday when the stay-at-home order was issued, this the "defining moment" of our generation. I am not expecting school to reopen in the Fall as well, but, many people got upset by my reasoning and logic when I said that, so, I only say it on this forum. Many acquaintances have put down big amounts of money as deposits for high end summer camps for their kids and they are going to be scrambling for summer enrichment/camps as well as baby sitting in the coming months. This virus is lethal to older people and there is no way that grandparents can care for kids who might be asymptomatic carriers of the disease. 

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https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/coronavirus-covid-19-new-zealand-cases-12550544

“WELLINGTON: New Zealand confirmed eight new cases of coronavirus, all related to people who had recently travelled overseas, the health ministry said in a press conference on Wednesday (Mar 18).

The new cases take the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the country to 20.”

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2 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

 Many acquaintances have put down big amounts of money as deposits for high end summer camps for their kids and they are going to be scrambling for summer enrichment/camps as well as baby sitting in the coming months. This virus is lethal to older people and there is no way that grandparents can care for kids who might be asymptomatic carriers of the disease. 

YMCA and Parks & Recreation might be able to run summer “babysitting” camps. Some locations have big multipurpose rooms and they need to take less kids per room for social distancing effect. 

 

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Wisconsin

The state will ban gatherings of 10 or more people beginning at 5 p.m. Tuesday. Gov. Tony Evers said the new measure would have certain exceptions like in the case of hospitals, courts and job centers.

Evers also extended the closure of all public and private K-12 schools indefinitely and called on the Legislature to waive a one-week waiting period to receive unemployment compensation insurance.

Milwaukee, Dane and Kenosha counties all are exhibiting community spread.

 Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers has ordered that all bars, restaurants, and mass gatherings of 10 or more people effective at 5 p.m. Tuesday afternoon.

Restaurants will still be able to allow take-out and delivery services to customers the governor said in his remarks.

He said that there are exceptions for what he called critical functions including transportation, childcare, hotels, military, law enforcement, food pantries, hospitals, long-term care facilities, utilities, job centers, and courts

 

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11 minutes ago, Dotwithaperiod said:

  https://jacobinmag.com/2020/03/joe-biden-italy-coronavirus-public-health-care-debate

Here’s an excellent rebuttal regarding your comment about Italy. Don’t mind the title, it’s not about dem vs Repub piece, it’s about the history of Italy’s healthcare, how the people view it, and what some of it’s problems are.

 

Yes. It could be that bad as it is in Italy, it would have been far far worse far far sooner without national healthcare.  

I have an uncle resident of Spain who I think is less stressed by events (along with others there it seems) because of the sense of a national health system as a cushion. 

 

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“Kansas public school children will be out of class for the remainder of the 2019-2020 school year, the governor announced Tuesday in an effort to combat the spread of the coronavirus illness COVID-19.” 

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/coronavirus-updates-countries-across-world-step-restrictions-combat-crisis-n1161301/ncrd1162416

Edited by Arcadia
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Report from my city trip today.  I had planned to go yesterday, but by time I was dressed and had my soaps and everything ready to go (need a CV version of a travel diaper bag I think— all ready to go so that it isn’t a packing ordeal each time) I was too tired. 🤔

My regular supermarket which had been fully stocked except for hand sanitizer and that type of product the last time was now all out of the usual things. No toilet paper. Little bottled water.  Etc.   They said orders aren’t arriving for those products and their suppliers keep moving the delivery day off farther into future.  Was supposed to be yesterday, delayed to today, now supposed to be tomorrow etc.

I was afraid there would be no milk which I most wanted, but the milk, fresh vegetables etc all seemed fine.  At least what was on my list all was.    My usual coffee was out, but there were lots of others and it is often out. 

Many more people were wearing masks and or gloves.

Most of the workers were wearing gloves.  There was a lot of cleaning going on. Way more than usual.  (Hard on me because of my problems with fragrance and toxic chemical products.)

Moods seemed good.

A fair bit bit of humor about situation. At least from many.  

  I tried my best to practice kindness and I think others were doing same. 

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6 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

“Kansas public school children will be out of class for the remainder of the 2019-2020 school year, the governor announced Tuesday in an effort to combat the spread of the coronavirus illness COVID-19.” 

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/coronavirus-updates-countries-across-world-step-restrictions-combat-crisis-n1161301/ncrd1162416

https://mobile.twitter.com/GovLauraKelly/status/1240068428255330305
 

https://governor.kansas.gov/governor-kelly-announces-proactive-measures-to-mitigate-spread-of-covid-19-pandemic-in-kansas/
official info 

Edited by Ausmumof3
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ABC (Australia). Non-essential indoor gatherings of more than 100 people have been banned by the Federal Government as the country responds to the coronavirus pandemic.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has also warned Australians not to leave the country as the disease spreads, saying: "We haven't seen this sort of thing in Australia since the end of the First World War."

The Prime Minister has announced that:

  • The Federal Government is advising Australians not to travel overseas, and says that advice will remain in place indefinitely
  • Indoor gatherings of more than 100 people are banned but schools, universities, airports, public transport, medical and emergency services facilities, aged care homes, jails, courts, parliaments, supermarkets and many workplaces are exempt
  • Work restrictions on 20,000 student nurses have been lifted, so that they can help with the health response
  • A human biosecurity emergency has been declared, giving the Federal Government extra powers to respond to the crisis
  • There are new rules restricting visits to aged care homes
  • Schools will remain open for the foreseeable future, based on the advice of health officials.

"This is a once-in-a-100-year-type event," Mr Morrison said.

"Life is changing in Australia, as it is changing all around the world. Life is going to continue to change.

"The travel advice to every Australian is do not travel abroad. Do not go overseas."

The new restrictions were agreed to during a phone hook-up with federal, state and territory leaders last night.

Edited by Ausmumof3
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1 hour ago, Arcadia said:

@mathnerd

California https://abc7news.com/health/live-gov-newsom-gives-update-on-ca-coronavirus-outbreak/5906450/

“5 p.m.

Schools could be out until summer break, Newsom says


During a press conference on Tuesday, Governor Gavin Newsom announced that individuals should plan for the possibility that students will not go back to school before summer break”

 

I am glad that he is being honest with people instead of stringing them along with false hope. I get all these emails from the camps my kids are supposed to go to this summer, asking for continued payments, saying that they are going to run with increased cleaning, etc., and I just want to scream. Come on, already, these camps are not going to run! How can they ask me to continue to make payments when they know they aren't going to happen!

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Yes, OR schools cancelled through at least April 28. This affects us both as parents of a high school junior and I work at the high school as an educational assistant. Instruction is supposed to continue in some kind of format. We use Google Classroom, so teachers do have a way of getting assignments out and receiving them back. They can post instructional videos, links to Khan Academy, etc. Dd has 2 AP classes--it will be a lot harder to prepare for those tests without direct instruction. Her English teacher does not even use Google Classroom. We'll be back to something like homeschooling. And of course many of our students do not have easy access to the internet. We could certainly check out chromebooks, but they would still need some kind of connection. For me as an employee, if I'm reading my email correctly, I may still get paid. But it also looks like they could tell me to help provide childcare for necessary workers. I don't want to put too much worry or thought into that until I know more.

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2 minutes ago, Ali in OR said:

. Dd has 2 AP classes--it will be a lot harder to prepare for those tests without direct instruction.

I know this is probably hard to hear but the reality of the manner is, it's very likely those tests won't be happening either so it probably doesn't matter a whole lot in the long run.

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2 hours ago, Arcadia said:


and now all 50 states have cases.

ETA:

“UPDATE: Coronavirus death toll in the US reaches 100; West Virginia reports its first case in the state, meaning the virus has now been confirmed to have reached all 50 US states.” https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/coronavirus-updates-countries-across-world-step-restrictions-combat-crisis-n1161301/ncrd1162321

54 deaths are in Washington state, most of those are in King county (where the nursing home is located, and Seattle.)

1 hour ago, prairiewindmomma said:

The layoffs are hitting, and hitting hard.  Our next door neighbor has closed her restaurant (is not going to do delivery/pick up).  It looks like a number of restaurants are doing that...just closing for the next month.

My dd's company shut down today in an attempt to weather this.  they're laying off hourly workers.  (dd is head of IT, and is refusing to let her one hourly go as she needs him for what IT needs to do.  they do have things they need to do during the shut down.)

a lot of restaurants around here are doing take-out and delivery.  it's funny to see some of the better ones doing that.  (I admit I feel like patronizing my favorite for my anniversary in a few weeks - make a picnic out of it.)

1 hour ago, PinkTulip said:

Sorry for my ignorance on this, but I have heard absolutely nothing in terms of Coronavirus cases or statistics coming out of Russia.  I’m assuming they surely must have it there, too, but because of state-controlled media, we don’t know anything?

as a PP mentioned - yes they do have cases.  yes it is showing up on some of the maps I have.  I dont' believe their official numbers, I think they're much higher. (I don't believe china's or Iran's either. - Iran's is based on the number of mass graves in Qom that have shown up on sat images.  they're also releasing a lot of prisoners, and reports are it's bad in the prisons - but no testing or anything else).  Russia did close their boarder with china very early.

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4 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Amy Qin:  China is expelling all American journalists w/the NYT, WSJ & WaPo — myself included. So many feelings, but I keep coming back to my last trip, to Wuhan, where ppl were so willing to talk - they wanted the world to know what was happening to them and to hold their govt accountable


https://mobile.twitter.com/StephenMcDonell/status/1239955452072349697

 

quoting myself to say this twitter thread from BBC journalist is worth a read.  It’s definitely political but if you ignore that is useful on why this is so important.

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10 minutes ago, Seasider too said:

 

I lost the list in this thread - what’s North Korea reporting? 

I've look at the several maps I've bookmarked.  NK isn't reporting anything.  no surprise there.  I'd be surprised if they don't have at least some - they're too dependent upon china, as well as SK.  (there's a zone where SK does have factories in NK.)

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Trying to figure out how to handle my only child—to extent I can since he is newly 18.  

They, he and his friends,  already have cut down their own group sizes significantly and seem proud to have figured it out for themselves. He is in a threesome with 2 other boys, he and one other are only children and the third so different in age from a sibling to essentially be. 

They are texting,, instagramming, and online game playing with other small groups of kids.  

Today they also went skateboarding which I was concerned about, but seems to have ended with no injuries. 

 

Our state hasn't figured out online school yet so this is sort of a spring break. 

I am trying to decide whether to be more of the heavy or let him keep working out things like now maybe less dangerous activities...

He pointed out that one of his friends who has 8 brothers has far more contacts and social outlets just at his own home than my son and his threesome of only or close to only children do.

Social contact is extremely important to him.

ideas?

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I am watching our school board meeting online.  We are doomed. That is all.

ETA: They have no idea what they are doing.  They are not going to offer actual instruction, only supplementary. They aren't sure how they are going to do that.  They spent 10 minutes talking about that and are now spending the rest of the time congratulating each other and talking about the new language arts program adoption.

Edited by prairiewindmomma
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The Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from China/Korea/Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what happens if the US does absolutely nothing -- if we treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus take its course?
Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself.
It gets worse. People with severe COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number available in the US. Nearly 100% of these patients die.
So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die.
How many is 4 million people? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's 4 times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust.
Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. If we extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world (warning: MOE is high here), this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19, in 3-6 months. 15 Holocausts. 1.5 times as many people as died in all of World War II.
Now, of course countries won't stand by and do nothing. So the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, this time assuming a "mitigation" strategy: all symptomatic cases in the US in isolation. Families of those cases quarantined. All Americans over 70 social distancing.
This mitigation strategy is what you've seen a lot of people talking about when they say we should "flatten the curve": try to slow the spread of the disease to the people most likely to die from it, to avoid overwhelming hospitals.
And it does flatten the curve -- but not nearly enough. The death rate from the disease is cut in half, but it still kills 1.1 million Americans all by itself. The peak need for ventilators falls by two-thirds, but it still exceeds the number of ventilators in the US by 8 times.
That leaves the actual death toll in the US at right around 2 million deaths. The population of Houston. Two Civil Wars. One-third of the Holocaust. Globally, 45 million people die: 7.5 Holocausts, 3/4 of World War II. That's what happens if we rely on mitigation & common sense.
Finally, the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, assuming a "suppression" strategy: isolate symptomatic cases, quarantine their family members, social distancing for the whole population, all public gatherings/most workplaces shut down, schools and universities close.
Suppression works! The death rate in the US peaks 3 weeks from now at a few thousand deaths, then goes down. We hit but don't exceed the number of available ventilators. The nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear.
But here's the catch: if we EVER relax suppression before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before.
After the 1st suppression period ends in July, we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by 2 more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. Staggering breaks by city could do a bit better.
But we simply cannot EVER allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen.
How quickly will a vaccine be here? Last week three separate research teams announced they had developed vaccines. Yesterday, one of them (with FDA approval) injected its vaccine into a live person, without waiting for animal testing. That's an extreme measure, but necessary.
Now, though, they have to monitor the test subject for 14 months to make sure the vaccine is safe. This part can't be rushed: if you're going to inoculate all humans, you have to make absolutely sure the vaccine itself won't kill them. It probably won't, but you have to be sure.
Assuming the vaccine is safe and effective, it will still take several months to produce enough to inoculate the global population. For this reason, the Imperial College team estimated it will be about 18 months until the vaccine is available.
During those 18 months, things are going to be very difficult and very scary. Our economy and society will be disrupted in profound ways. And if suppression actually works, it will feel like we're doing all this for nothing, because infection and death rates will remain low.
It's easy to get people to come together in common sacrifice in the middle of a war. It's very hard to get them to do so in a pandemic that looks invisible precisely because suppression methods are working. But that's exactly what we're going to have to do. /end

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1239975682643357696.html

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4 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

at least one bus full of people from Melbourne has traveled around the state emptying the small shops of food in rural areas. it has happened to the small shops in my area and I am hearing reports of it happening in other areas as well.

 😞

 

 

How awful. 

Is it known Why?

Another scheme to price gouge sell online or something? 

Meanness? 

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@Chrysalis Academy @MEmama

Sonoma County, California effective midnight on Wednesday March 18, 2020.

https://socoemergency.org/order-of-the-health-officer-shelter-in-place/

“Directing all individuals living in the County to shelter at their place of residence, except that they may leave to provide or receive certain essential services or engage in certain essential activities and work for essential businesses and governmental services; exempting individuals experiencing homelessness from the shelter in place order but urging them to find shelter and government agencies to provide it; directing all businesses and governmental agencies to cease non-essential operations at physical locations in the County; prohibiting all non-essential gatherings of any number of individual; and ordering cessation of all non essential travel.

DATE OF ORDER: MARCH 17, 2020”

 

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2 hours ago, cjzimmer1 said:

I know this is probably hard to hear but the reality of the manner is, it's very likely those tests won't be happening either so it probably doesn't matter a whole lot in the long run.

 College Board is actually talking about making these take home exams. We can't assume they aren't happening.

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Aus - more major restrictions on food purchases.  Woolworths are restricting to no more than two of anything excluding fruit and veg, fresh Milk, meat (except mince - restricted to two), and hygiene type products are down to one.  Coles has a two item per customer limit on milk (that will double to triple the shopping trips per week.  Biggest carton is 3L). Aldi is reducing shopping hours.

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1 hour ago, square_25 said:

Eeeeep. What a disaster :-/.

So what does that mean about China? I know they are relaxing things now.

We think.

kicking out US journalists plus crackdown on rumours makes everything hard to tell.  One tweet from global times mentioned building more makeshift hospitals near Beijing to deal with foreign cases coming in.  
Anyone coming to Beijing has to quarantine 14 days.

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13 minutes ago, Plum said:

I am starting to think about this and I’m not sure what good shutting down our state (NV) for 30 days when the minute we lift it, people start flying in from other places. It seems like all of the states need to buy in for it to work.  🤷🏻‍♀️

 

I am hoping other state governors (like Kate Brown in Oregon! my state) will follow the lead of your Governor in Nevada and do a 30 day shut down using similar language.  

 

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@Pen

(Paywalled) https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/China-says-Japan-developed-drug-Avigan-works-against-coronavirus

(ETA: not paywalled https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-fujifilm/fujifilm-holdings-shares-hit-daily-limit-high-on-china-coronavirus-drug-trial-boost-idUSKBN215025)

 “DALIAN, China -- An influenza medicine developed by a Fujifilm Holdings group member is effective against the novel coronavirus, the Chinese government said Tuesday.

The government has already begun officially recommending the drug's use. Fujifilm Toyama Chemical developed favipiravir, sold under the brand Avigan.

"It has a high degree of safety and is clearly effective in treatment," said Zhang Xinmin, director of the science ministry's China National Center for Biotechnology Development, in a news conference. Fujifilm Toyama Chemical developed the drug in 2014, and it has been provided to patients in Japan as treatment for the novel coronavirus since February.

... Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical signed a patent-licensing agreement for favipiravir with Fujifilm in 2016. The drugmaker received clearance to produce the drug from Chinese authorities in February and can ramp up output of a generic version.

The clinical trial was conducted at hospitals in Wuhan and Shenzhen, with 200 patients participating. Test results for those receiving the drug turned negative in a shorter period, and their pneumonia symptoms improved at a higher rate.”

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This is infuriating - someone walked right into lifecare (43 of their patients have DIED from this) and hugged a positive patient.  she bragged about it, and walked away.  no protective clothing, no one stopped her.   how many people will she now infect?  talk about stupidity!

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5 minutes ago, Carol in Cal. said:


I am reading the US study mentioned in your link 

“An Effective Treatment for Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Presented by: James M. Todaro, MD (Columbia MD, jtodaro2@gmail.com) and Gregory J. Rigano, Esq. (grigano1@jhu.edu)

In consultation with Stanford University School of Medicine, UAB School of Medicine and National Academy of Sciences researchers.

March 13, 2020”

https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFio7bJ7GdNgbJAGbdfF67WuRJB3ZsidgpidB2eocFHAVjIL-7deJ7/pub

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3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

There is a huge amount of debate over schools here.  The gov don’t want to close due to the economic impact but catholic schools want to close, many teachers etc want to close, and some schools are reporting a drop in attendance of 30 percent.

 

Our schools are supposedly going back to school March 27.

Our locality is to have gatherings no bigger than 10 people until May 1

 

IF the schools open up, my kids will not be going back. You simply can't have it both ways.

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4 minutes ago, calbear said:

Well, apparently, they are early releasing prisoners now. 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/us/inmates-released-jail-coronavirus-trnd/index.html

 

And the sheriff (LA) is not going to arrest criminals anymore either. I heard (from friend in LA) that gun scales are skyrocketing because of fear of criminals. Must be a good time to be a criminal even though the world is suffering with Covid-19!

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12 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

And the sheriff (LA) is not going to arrest criminals anymore either. I heard (from friend in LA) that gun scales are skyrocketing because of fear of criminals. Must be a good time to be a criminal even though the world is suffering with Covid-19!

Not if you’re in prison though 

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36 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

Wow I knew about Iran but not LA.  In Italy there were riots and in San Paolo a mass escape.  So it’s a pretty significant issue.  

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2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3075567/people-blood-type-may-be-more-vulnerable-coronavirus-china-study?__twitter_impression=true
 

have we talked about this yet?  Study find possible link between blood type and vulnerability to Covid19.  I cant find the link to the original study.  

Saw the news on Asiaone and my husband asked me which blood groups me and our kids are 😛
 

Relationship between the ABO Blood Group and the COVID-19 Susceptibility https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.20031096v1

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8 hours ago, cjzimmer1 said:

I know this is probably hard to hear but the reality of the manner is, it's very likely those tests won't be happening either so it probably doesn't matter a whole lot in the long run.

Mine is taking 4 APS this year.
One of his teachers has been passing along all the testing updates he gets. As of a couple days ago the college board thought they should have test date information by the 20th. I’ll share here anything we hear. There are rumours the exams might be taken at home.

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I saw that (eta- the blood type study, sorry I didn't quote)  and don't know what to think. The sample was small and I didn't see anything about types B or AB, so I guess it's an interesting theory for someone to follow up on with more studies, but not too useful for today. 

Edited by Paige
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There’s a non English language report by I think Taiwan Apple.  I have no idea how reliable, possibly biassed.  It claims to be quoting from a WuhAn doctor saying the reason the numbers dropped was because they are no longer allowed to test and also from family members of patients being told there’s no hospital places for them two days ago.  I wish we had a real idea of the situations. The case numbers seem almost too good to be true.  It would help to know if those measures actually worked before we try to follow to some extent.

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53 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I think I’m going to need a mental health break from this thread :-/. I need to figure out how to run our homeschool with everyone home and no outside activities... I’m also getting a bit of a sore throat, which is obviously making me nervous.

I’m going to unfollow for a bit. I’ll be back :-).

 

Keep well - mind and body!!! 

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My nearest grocery store has a 2-day wait for delivery, 3 days for pick-up. Previously I could get either in 2-4 hours. I've chosen the delivery rather than sending DH out--if DS and I do have it, he has definitely been exposed. The CDC advice about isolating a sick person is neither suited to our house nor our family (read: I'm the only one who can cook decently).

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8 hours ago, mathnerd said:

And the sheriff (LA) is not going to arrest criminals anymore either. I heard (from friend in LA) that gun scales are skyrocketing because of fear of criminals. Must be a good time to be a criminal even though the world is suffering with Covid-19!

 

A little humor from (I think) SC: 

 

 
 
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Our nearest significant city has had its first confirmed case, and community spread confirmation.  

As I understand it, news has been murky, It was a person who died and was not confirmed positive till dead.  

The man had done no travel etc, so spread was definitely community. Locally people have been thinking there has been Community spread  for weeks, if not months, but since no testing was allowed for most people with symptoms, couldn’t prove it—this was finally proof.)

Since he had not qualified for testing by the very strict rules, I would guess that many health care workers would all have been exposed rather than using proper PPE .  He had initially presented with symptoms on March 1st. 

 

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1 hour ago, square_25 said:

I think I’m going to need a mental health break from this thread :-/. I need to figure out how to run our homeschool with everyone home and no outside activities... I’m also getting a bit of a sore throat, which is obviously making me nervous.

I’m going to unfollow for a bit. I’ll be back :-).

 

Me too.  Second time in the last week.   

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