wuhan - coronavirus

[Jean in Newcastle]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.31.018556v1
 

non peer reviewed preprint study - shows potential fatal effects when using metformin and chloroquine together in mice.  

And this is why you don't run out to get a medicine touted by a non-medical person in a press release. 

[HeartString]

My point with the HIV comparison was not that we dint have treatments, it was that a vaccine is not guaranteed even if we pour money and world wide effort into it. Most of the plans that I’m hearing just assume we’ll for sure have a vaccine in the next few years, but that might not happen.  

I’m sure we’ll develop some sort of treatment for Covid.  Although we do have treatments for influenza, but they don’t work great. Tamiflu just makes it slightly less bad and shortens it by a day or so.  I hope Covid treatments work better. Viruses are just hard to deal with.  

[Jean in Newcastle]

1 minute ago, Cnew02 said:

My point with the HIV comparison was not that we dint have treatments, it was that a vaccine is not guaranteed even if we pour money and world wide effort into it. Most of the plans that I’m hearing just assume we’ll for sure have a vaccine in the next few years, but that might not happen.  

I’m sure we’ll develop some sort of treatment for Covid.  Although we do have treatments for influenza, but they don’t work great. Tamiflu just makes it slightly less bad and shortens it by a day or so.  I hope Covid treatments work better. Viruses are just hard to deal with.  

No one can guarantee anything.  Many are working on vaccines.  Someone in some country might be successful or they may not.  (I can't find the citation but I thought that someone somewhere in this giant thread said that they were close to a vaccine for the common cold - or at least one of the viruses that cause the common cold - but it got stopped due to lack of funding). 

But having a better understanding of the biology of this virus and how it affects our biology would go a long way in making this less deadly.  Having the right treatments is huge and right now doctors are just trying to do anything they can to keep people from dying.  Even if we reduced the deadliness to this virus to that of influenza, that in and of itself would be a huge improvement. 

[mumto2]

This is a me pondering something that I don’t think has been discussed......

I have just been skimming through U.K. papers and someplace along the way glanced at a map of the world with which strain of Covid each country had.  I immediately noticed that the US and U.K. have different strains labeled on the map.......passed that off as because of travel we all must be a mix of strains in every country to some degree. Discussion here regarding NY and CA different strains ............
 

 That said I just now realized depending on immunity etc I might be fortunate enough to be immune in one or the other of my countries but may not be in both.....depending on vaccines etc.  Now pondering future travel restrictions based on status of your immunities.

This is being said by someone who is not immune to measles which I actually had as a child.  I have been vaccinated many many times.  I can answer when asked that I have been vaccinated but.......am I immune, very doubtful. 

[TravelingChris]

1 hour ago, ElizabethB said:

Can they get their levels up adequately with supplements or cod liver oil?  Adequate levels of vitamin D seem to be important for so many different things.

Yes, They both have Vitamin D prescriptions as do I, though I have no genetic cause for my lower vitamin D.  My dd has been on prescription Vit D for about 10 years now and my dh has finally started as of this year.

[TravelingChris]

55 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

And this is why you don't run out to get a medicine touted by a non-medical person in a press release. 

What I have no  idea about is whether Chloroquine is the same risk as Hydroxychloroquine = which was the medicine used succesfully in France and in places in the US.  I have been on hydroxychloroquine for more than 23 years.  When I started on it way back when, I did research on it.  It was considered a much safer alternative to chloroquine.  I do not know any lupus or RA patients taking chloroquine.  There are so many of us taking hydroxychloroquine.  It has been used for many, many decades and at least some of the people with lupus who are on it probably have type 2 diabetes and are taking metformin too.  There are no black box warnings for taking Plaquenil at all.

[Jean in Newcastle]

4 minutes ago, TravelingChris said:

What I have no  idea about is whether Chloroquine is the same risk as Hydroxychloroquine = which was the medicine used succesfully in France and in places in the US.  I have been on hydroxychloroquine for more than 23 years.  When I started on it way back when, I did research on it.  It was considered a much safer alternative to chloroquine.  I do not know any lupus or RA patients taking chloroquine.  There are so many of us taking hydroxychloroquine.  It has been used for many, many decades and at least some of the people with lupus who are on it probably have type 2 diabetes and are taking metformin too.  There are no black box warnings for taking Plaquenil at all.

But I am sure that you and others have doctors who are weighing all the risks of all your meds.  I have many meds that I cannot take because I react to them or because they don't work on me or because they will interact with my other meds.   But of course those same meds work great for other people. 

[Jean in Newcastle]

12 minutes ago, TravelingChris said:

Yes, They both have Vitamin D prescriptions as do I, though I have no genetic cause for my lower vitamin D.  My dd has been on prescription Vit D for about 10 years now and my dh has finally started as of this year.

Prescription Vitamin D is often Vitamin D2 which is not absorbed as well as D3. 

[ElizabethB]

Article from science times about vitamin D and coronavirus:

https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/25248/20200408/fight-coronavirus-vitamin-d-boost-immune-system-sunshine.htm

Reposting my article about Vitamin D, coronavirus, possible tie in to racial death gap.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/vitamin-d-coronavirus-gap-liz-brown/

[mlktwins]

Deleted

Edited April 13, 2020 by mlktwins

[hopeallgoeswell]

Has anyone seen any models for the U.S. that compare total covid-19 deaths to the overall totals from previous years due to heart disease, lower respiratory disease, diabetes, influenza and pneumonia, and suicides?  The stats below should go down and some should transfer to the covid-19 category, correct?

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm

Number of deaths for leading causes of death

• Heart disease: 647,457
• Cancer: 599,108
• Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
• Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
• Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
• Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
• Diabetes: 83,564
• Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
• Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
• Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

Source: Deaths: Leading Causes for 2017, table 1 pdf icon[PDF- 2 MB]

[ElizabethB]

A doctor on twitter, Dr. Erik Hermstad, @EHermstad, said he hasn't seen any vitamin D levels in the 40's or higher yet on ANY patient he's admitted with it.

I've been blasting my twitter account with Vitamin D info.  Normally I post phonics info!  I'm @PhonicsMom there.

[lewelma]

6 hours ago, Mom2mthj said:

I personally wouldn’t trust them to not release the data or for it not to be hacked.  Maybe it would go over fine in NZ, but I would envision a huge uproar over tracking people’s every movement.  

This quote was in response to me discussing the Singapore app that tracks people 2m away from you so that contact tracing can happen efficiently and effectively. 

The interview I heard was actually with the Privacy Commissioner here in NZ, not with a tech person.  We know the tech is possible because Singapore is using it, but it is the ethics of the tracking that must be considered.  Luckily for us, NZ has had national laws about privacy for decades, and the Privacy Commissioner's office must be involved with figuring out what can be allowed and how to make it meet the privacy laws.  Once his office determines the requirements, then the GCSB's cybersecurity division (our national spy/secrets group) gets involved to make sure that the tech is sound and not hackable.  Then it all loops back to the Privacy Commissioner for approval before the public is asked to voluntarily download the app. 

This is not a done deal, but it is in the works to handle large-scale contact tracing.  People keep talking about contact tracing, but it takes either a HUGE number of people to do it for a dense population or technology to help.  People can't just throw around 'contact tracing' as one of the solutions without actually considering *how* it will be implemented.

[Arcadia]

@Sneezyonehttps://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/usns-mercy-crewmember-tests-positive-for-covid-19/2302319/

“Updated on April 8, 2020 at 8:08 pm

A medical treatment facility crewmember aboard the San Diego-based USNS Mercy has tested positive for COVID-19, according to Navy Public Affairs Officer Lt. Joseph Pfaff.

The individual is isolated onboard and will soon be transferred off the ship to an isolation facility where they will self-monitor for severe symptoms, Pfaff said Wednesday.

This positive case will not affect the ability for the Mercy to receive patients, he said. Right now, the ship is treating non-coronavirus patients from Los Angeles-area hospitals to free up beds and resources for coronavirus patients. 

"The ship is following protocols and is taking precaution to ensure the health and safety of all crew members and patients onboard," Pfaff said.

Military and COVID-19

Anyone who boards the Mercy, which began accepting patients on March 29 after docking at the Port of Los Angeles, is tested for the coronavirus. 

As of April 7, some 27 patients have been treated on the 1,000-bed hospital ship for things like gunshot wounds, heart failure and pneumonia, but no COVID-19 cases, according to a spokesperson.”

[iamonlyone]

Sorry if this has already been posted: Medevac helicopters from several states flew to a New York hospital Tuesday night to evacuate patients on ventilators to other hospitals because the hospital's oxygen system was overwhelmed: https://world.wng.org/2020/04/new_york_s_dunkirk_moment

Edited April 10, 2020 by iamonlyone

[lewelma]

4 minutes ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

, I've been thinking about what risks we as a family are willing to take once the stay at home orders are lifted. How can we control those risks? 

I've been thinking about my MIL who lives alone in her house.  She is 90 and has just gotten over pneumonia at Christmas and is still suffering some respiratory issues.  She is *clearly* in the high risk group.  She has not left her house in 4 weeks.  She gets the groceries delivered and then wipes them all down with clorox wipes or leaves them in the garage for 3 days.  Does she stay in her house in complete isolation for a YEAR?

[Lucy the Valiant]

58 minutes ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

Has anyone seen any models for the U.S. that compare total covid-19 deaths to the overall totals from previous years due to heart disease, lower respiratory disease, diabetes, influenza and pneumonia, and suicides?  The stats below should go down and some should transfer to the covid-19 category, correct?

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm

 

 

I believe part of the "slipperiness" of the reporting lies in how Covid-19 deaths are categorized (and, in my limited research, this is wildly different even from hospital to hospital, never mind state to state or country to country). If a person "living with cancer" dies and tests positive for Covid-19, what is listed as the cause of death? 

[Sneezyone]

21 minutes ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

I've been thinking a lot about what happens next. It seems obvious to me that the US is going to open up in about a month. I don't see any alternative. There's too much money on the line to let the shut down continue. 

Which means that we're all pretty much on our own. The virus will still circulate. There is no vaccine and no testing widespread testing for immunity. 

I think that is why we are seeing so much talk about how the deaths are overstated and how most of us had this back in November. They want us to go back to our normal routine in a month or so without any fears. Go to the mall, go to baseball games, fly across the country, etc. 

We're going to receive a lot of terrible information about risk from all directions. It will be very confusing. There will be a lot of pressure on people who are still trying to social distance. 

But the virus will keep spreading and people will die. I anticipate a lot of lying about mortality figures. Lots of heart attacks and deaths from the flu instead of COVID19. Nothing will be clear for a long time but eventually we will see a two or so year period with a higher mortality rate across the population and probably a decreased average lifespan for everyone. 

Most of the people dying in the US are invisible people which will make this much easier to ignore. 

Because I believe the virus to be very dangerous and know that we will be at risk until a vaccine is developed, I've been thinking about what risks we as a family are willing to take once the stay at home orders are lifted. How can we control those risks? Who can we trust? My husband and I both work outside of the home. Our employers will likely require that we return to our offices in May. That's not a risk we can control. But there are many other ways that we can reduce contact with others; online shopping, avoiding crowded events, etc. 

On the who can we trust front - I've already made some assessments. People who have not taken this seriously, those who saw the shutdown as a personal inconvenience, and those who saw it through filtered through a political viewpoint are to be trusted. People who do not vaccinate are not to be trusted either. I'm obviously speaking only for myself and my family here. 

I've sadly concluded that there are people we know who we will need to avoid in the future because I don't trust them. Trust is important because if we socially distance but come in contact with people who do not, then we're at risk. 

What are you guys thinking about "what comes after?" I just don't see how we can return to normal life without a vaccine. I think some people will try to go back to normal life without any concern about the risk. They'll go to football games, concerts, etc. Then another group will be more cautious but will listen to the authorities who will say there is no risk and will attend crowded events, etc. Then there will be a significant minority that will hold back. Avoid risks when they can. 

 

I do not think we will ‘open up’ in a month but I do believe we, as a family, will continue to impose social distancing on ourselves and our children through August/September at least. I have already started making preparations for the opening of schools, sewing masks for both kids with filter pockets, obtaining non-woven materials (dental since no one is going to the dentist these days) to make reusable filters. I already know there are certain kids DD is friendly with that will NOT make the cut. Even if school resumes in the fall, my kids will be masked.

[hopeallgoeswell]

1 minute ago, Lucy the Valiant said:

 

I believe part of the "slipperiness" of the reporting lies in how Covid-19 deaths are categorized (and, in my limited research, this is wildly different even from hospital to hospital, never mind state to state or country to country). If a person "living with cancer" dies and tests positive for Covid-19, what is listed as the cause of death? 

Agreed. *Assuming* is now a thing that should be done and will be lumped in with the actual facts. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf

"If the death certificate reports terms such as “probable COVID-19” or “likely COVID-19,” these terms would be assigned the new ICD code. It Is not likely that NCHS will follow up on these cases."

"COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death. Certifiers should include as much detail as possible based on their knowledge of the case, medical records, laboratory testing, etc. If the decedent had other chronic conditions such as COPD or asthma that may have also contributed, these conditions can be reported in Part II. (See attached Guidance for Certifying COVID-19 Deaths)
           Steven Schwartz, PhD

[73349]

District ends food distribution after employee tests positive 😕 https://www.newsobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article241715791.html

Edited October 2, 2020 by Carolina Wren

[hopeallgoeswell]

1 hour ago, Happymomof1 said:

Did you see this one:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/the-rapid-increase-of-u-s-coronavirus-deaths-in-one-graphic.html

Thank you for posting that.  I have seen it.  Is that not myopic, though?  Are those numbers going to carry over every day through next year?  The next decade?  Will covid-19 deaths always outpace all other causes?  People acquire immunity to viruses and bacteria or the human race would be extinct, right?  Things that look bleak in the here and now seem to look different after we get to the end and look at the big picture.  Right now, the big picture is being ignored, which is understandable because some people are in the trenches and just trying to survive.  The blinders are on and we are looking right in front of us at only one factor.  I really hope Sweden doesn't cave and initiate the same lock down as everyone else; it would be beneficial for the world to have some controls so we can see, retrospectively, if locking whole countries down for months was the only efficient way to handle the virus. 

Edited April 10, 2020 by hopeallgoeswell

[TCB]

20 minutes ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

Thank you for posting that.  I have seen it.  Is that not myopic, though?  Are those numbers going to carry over every day through next year?  The next decade?  Will covid-19 deaths always outpace all other causes?  People acquire immunity to viruses and bacteria or the human race would be extinct, right?  Things that look bleak in the here and now seem to look different after we get to the end and look at the big picture.  Right now, the big picture is being ignored, which is understandable because some people are in the trenches and just trying to survive.  The blinders are on and we are looking right in front of us at only one factor.  I really hope Sweden doesn't cave and initiate the same lock down as everyone else; it would be beneficial for the world to have some controls so we can see, retrospectively, if locking whole countries down for months was the only efficient way to handle the virus. 

I don’t think they aren’t talking about the big future picture so much because they are blinkered and in the trenches as much as because nobody know with any degree of certainty what the big picture will be. I think some of us have a hard time realizing that this is a very new experience, one that we have no real previous experience with in our lifetimes, and it’s virtually impossible to apply our prior experience to it when thinking about the future, because it’s not the same - unless one was around and able to clearly remember 1918.

[ElizabethB]

The Role of Vitamin D in Suppressing Cytokine Storm in COVID-19 Patients and Associated Mortality

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20058578v1

[Pen]

I got behind in thread and don’t know if this or the German study Campbell is talking about were already shared here — if so, sorry — but this looks extremely promising for a Dance phase after Hammer phase approach to allow gradual emergence from SIP/ Lockdowns Stay Home /Stay Safe —  within what medical system can handle and maybe to get real herd immunity from actual cases rather than vaccination 

 

 

[Pen]

7 minutes ago, ElizabethB said:

The Role of Vitamin D in Suppressing Cytokine Storm in COVID-19 Patients and Associated Mortality

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20058578v1

 

Thank you!

I have been using and suggesting Vitamin D since early on in this — and it is helpful to see some research directly related to Covid19 now, rather than just for prior viruses . 

 

[ElizabethB]

11 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Thank you!

I have been using and suggesting Vitamin D since early on in this — and it is helpful to see some research directly related to Covid19 now, rather than just for prior viruses . 

 

I found it searching for Vitamin D articles on twitter and sharing them and adding my gap article.  The doctor getting levels of all his patients and finding that he's admitting to the hospital only those with levels below 40 is also really interesting, hopefully more people start to look into the connection, it is a simple, cheap way to help if there is a connection, with little downside.

Edited April 10, 2020 by ElizabethB

[Ausmumof3]

Bno: Calls to 911 are starting to decline in New York City: 4,584 medical calls were taken yesterday, which is higher than normal but down from a peak of 6,500 - NBC

[SKL]

As far as going back to business - maybe what people will end up doing is wearing face masks every time they go around other people.  This is not particularly unusual in some countries.  It would take some getting used to, but if it was effective, then why not?

I'm for a phased approach to going back to "normal."  There will be a small group of people who will have to stay more isolated, but that is probably best for them anyway, as they are susceptible to more than just Covid19.  Like, my mom hasn't really gone anywhere but the doctor's for years.  A lot of people are in that situation actually.

[Arcadia]

San Francisco https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/San-Francisco-coronavirus-homeless-cases-shelter-15193075.php

“San Francisco Mayor London Breed announced Friday there are 70 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus at the St. Vincent De Paul Society's Multi-Service Center South, the city's largest homeless shelter.

"One of the real challenging situations could have been worse will be a little bit better [because] we were preparing to ensure we were able to respond quickly," she stated. "We have identified 70 people — 68 members of shelter, 2 staff members — who have tested positive for COVID-19. This is one of the largest shelters in San Francisco with anywhere on any given night 340 people that are located in that shelter."

City public health chief Grant Colfax stated that MSC-South will now be converted into a medical facility while other occupants will be moved to hotels.

"It will reduce transports and collate patients with a dedicated staff of healthcare professionals who can attend their needs," he said.”

[melmichigan]

5 hours ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

And this is why you don't run out to get a medicine touted by a non-medical person in a press release. 

Especially when 1 in 4 Americans takes metformin.  78 million people.

[Ausmumof3]

US just passed half a million cases

worldwide reported cases 1.7million

Deaths passed 100,000 overnight.

[Ausmumof3]

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN21S24G?__twitter_impression=true
 

2/3 of Covid19 patients given a 10 day course of remdisivir showed improvement in their oxygen status. 

Twelve patients, 23%, had serious side effects including multiple-organ-dysfunction syndrome, septic shock and acute kidney injury.

[Rosie_0801]

2 hours ago, SKL said:

As far as going back to business - maybe what people will end up doing is wearing face masks every time they go around other people.  This is not particularly unusual in some countries.  It would take some getting used to, but if it was effective, then why not?

 

Huh. That just got me to thinking face masks could end up so ordinary as to live in our undie drawers with the other non-negotiables and be given as gifts by our grandmothers along with socks. As you say, why not? 
 

[Ausmumof3]

The Times: non 
Coronavirus vaccine could be ready by September

Leading scientist ‘80 per cent’ sure drug will work

April 10 2020, The Times

A vaccine against coronavirus could be ready as soon as September, the British scientist leading one of the world’s most advanced efforts has said.

Sarah Gilbert, professor of vaccinology at Oxford University, told The Times she was “80 per cent confident” that the vaccine being developed by her team would work, with human trials due to begin in the next fortnight.

The government signalled that it would be willing to fund the manufacture of millions of doses in advance if results looked promising. This would allow it to be available immediately to the public if it were proven to work.

With ministers struggling to find a strategy to exit the lockdown, long-term hopes of a return to normality rely on a vaccine.

Even if measures to stop the spread of coronavirus are eased in the coming weeks, officials are expecting that without a vaccine some element of social distancing, such as shielding of the vulnerable or working from home, would remain in place for a long time.

The development came as:

• Downing Street said that Boris Johnson was walking for the first time since leaving intensive care and watching films and doing sudoku puzzles as he continued to recover from Covid-19.

• The number of UK deaths from Covid-19 reached nearly 9,000, with a further 980 reported yesterday, the highest daily total so far.

• Matt Hancock, the health secretary, said that there was enough personal protective equipment for NHS staff if doctors used “no more” than necessary. More than 742 million pieces have been delivered since the outbreak began.

• More than 19,000 coronavirus tests were carried out on Thursday as Mr Hancock said there was capacity for “all key social care staff and NHS staff who need to be tested to get those tests”.

• Downing Street urged police against being “heavy-handed” during the lockdown over the Easter weekend as officers patrolled supermarkets.

• The worldwide death toll reached 100,000, according to Johns Hopkins University in the United States.

Professor Gilbert’s team is one of dozens around the world trying to find a vaccine and is the most advanced in Britain. She has been working seven days a week to rush through the development stages.

“I think there’s a high chance that it will work based on other things that we have done with this type of vaccine,” she said. “It’s not just a hunch and as every week goes by we have more data to look at . . . I would go for 80 per cent, that’s my personal view.”

Initial safety trials are due to begin soon, with further studies following around the world to see if the vaccine reduces the risk of catching coronavirus.

Lockdown makes it harder to test a vaccine when the virus is not spreading, Professor Gilbert said. However, if one of the countries in which it is trialled “turns out to have a high rate of virus transmission then we will get our efficacy results very quickly, so that is the strategy for reducing the time”.

Asked if the most optimistic scenario for a working vaccine was September, she said: “Yes and we have to go for that.” Success by the autumn was “just about possible if everything goes perfectly”.

However, she added: “Nobody can promise it’s going to work.” Manufacturing millions of doses can take months and Professor Gilbert said she was talking to the government about going into production before final results were in.

Winter flu vaccines are typically 40-60 per cent effective, although this varies depending on the annual strain. Ministers think that if a vaccine looks viable it will be worth spending tens of millions of pounds to have it ready for use given the economic cost of lockdown.

The US philanthropist Bill Gates, the co-founder of Microsoft, says that he will “waste” billions of dollars manufacturing vaccines, even though most will fail, in order to avoid a delay for any that prove successful.

 

[matrips]

4 hours ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

I've been thinking a lot about what happens next. It seems obvious to me that the US is going to open up in about a month. I don't see any alternative. There's too much money on the line to let the shut down continue. 

Which means that we're all pretty much on our own. The virus will still circulate. There is no vaccine and no testing widespread testing for immunity. 

I think that is why we are seeing so much talk about how the deaths are overstated and how most of us had this back in November. They want us to go back to our normal routine in a month or so without any fears. Go to the mall, go to baseball games, fly across the country, etc. 

We're going to receive a lot of terrible information about risk from all directions. It will be very confusing. There will be a lot of pressure on people who are still trying to social distance. 

But the virus will keep spreading and people will die. I anticipate a lot of lying about mortality figures. Lots of heart attacks and deaths from the flu instead of COVID19. Nothing will be clear for a long time but eventually we will see a two or so year period with a higher mortality rate across the population and probably a decreased average lifespan for everyone. 

Most of the people dying in the US are invisible people which will make this much easier to ignore. 

Because I believe the virus to be very dangerous and know that we will be at risk until a vaccine is developed, I've been thinking about what risks we as a family are willing to take once the stay at home orders are lifted. How can we control those risks? Who can we trust? My husband and I both work outside of the home. Our employers will likely require that we return to our offices in May. That's not a risk we can control. But there are many other ways that we can reduce contact with others; online shopping, avoiding crowded events, etc. 

On the who can we trust front - I've already made some assessments. People who have not taken this seriously, those who saw the shutdown as a personal inconvenience, and those who saw it through filtered through a political viewpoint are to be trusted. People who do not vaccinate are not to be trusted either. I'm obviously speaking only for myself and my family here. 

I've sadly concluded that there are people we know who we will need to avoid in the future because I don't trust them. Trust is important because if we socially distance but come in contact with people who do not, then we're at risk. 

What are you guys thinking about "what comes after?" I just don't see how we can return to normal life without a vaccine. I think some people will try to go back to normal life without any concern about the risk. They'll go to football games, concerts, etc. Then another group will be more cautious but will listen to the authorities who will say there is no risk and will attend crowded events, etc. Then there will be a significant minority that will hold back. Avoid risks when they can. 

 

I guess I always just assumed that the current shutdown is mainly for them to get a handle on the virus- see the numbers, see what treatments work, have time for research to be done, have time to make and procure more equipment.  Basically buy some time.  To be able to plan without being overwhelmed everywhere at once. I don’t think there is lying about the numbers- just disagreement

 

At no point did I ever think that all would be fine by the end of it. Things have to open up.  People will get sick, yes, but they’ve been finding out what helps.  What happens if you’re proactive on treating it before needing the ER.  Tests have now been developed down to 5 minutes instead of a week.  So if you get get sick a month or two from now- ideally there will plenty of rapid tests available by then, plus meds that stop the virus from replicating before damaging your body.

I think I’ll just have to see what things look like when we open up.  We’ve been hunkered down since March 8; not going anywhere. I think we have about another month to do so (we’re in Florida which hasn’t peaked yet). 

[RootAnn]

With all the talk about opening back up - when & how, I was reminded of The Dance (from The Hammer and The Dance).  I hadn't yet read the article linked in thus thread a long time ago that critiqued that essay, so I did finally read it tonight.

Improving on Covid-19 Hammer and Dance

The author focuses more on The Dance and how the goal is actually to continue a low level of transmission in order to get to herd immunity. He's thought about what the Dance looks like & although a few of his underlying assumptions might be outdated, I think what he proposes is what we are headed for: Regional, periodic, temporary measures to control the worst of the spread until areas build up herd immunity. He is thinking of the cost of the shut down on the economy vs. the value of each life, but also encouraging each region to make their own choices while not relying on a vaccine to save us all. I don't agree with him on everything, but it is definitely worth a read if you haven't read it yet. Here's just a bit of it.

During the dance, we have to find ways to reduce the R Naught. The goal is to reduce it enough so that there is low level spread, but not so much that it overwhelms the healthcare system. In addition, we must look at how easy the policies are to implement and how expensive they are. We can put together individual interventions to form a bundle that works for our community.

Equally as important, acknowledge that this is pandemic made of regional epidemics. What works in your region may not work in mine.

Acknowledge that This is Regional

As the pandemic ends, regional epidemics will continue to come and go.

As transmission increases, as measured by testing, or hospital or ICU admission, interventions will need to be increased for 2-4 weeks. Then, as the new infection ebb, you can decrease interventions to allow for low-level sustained transmission.

A criticism I have for most projections regarding Covid-19 is that they deal with a homogeneous population, both in density and resources. This country is not homogeneous. There are unique geographical, sociological and population density differences that will make a difference in the interventions selected.

In each region, different interventions will have differential benefit and costs to implement.

[Arcadia]

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/national-international/mayo-clinic-announces-across-the-board-pay-cuts-furloughs/2271100/

“One of the premier medical facilities in the country and Minnesota's largest private employer on Friday announced a series of cost-cutting measures to deal with a proposed $3 billion loss in 2020.

Rochester's Mayo Clinic is instituting across the board pay cuts and furloughs, a result of the financial strain caused by the coronavirus crisis. The moves follow the clinic's decision last month to halt elective surgeries and procedures to conserve supplies for an expected surge of COVID-19 patients.”

[hopeallgoeswell]

44 minutes ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

I hope she's right but unfortunately when a vaccine becomes available is when the real you know what will hit the fan. My hard-core anti-vax acquaintances are already going on and on about Bill Gates. These people are not going to get vaccinated. 

I've already laid down the law. When a vaccine becomes available, people who refuse to vaccinate without a good reason will not be in our lives. 

I can already see how this will play out. A significant number of Americans will refuse to vaccinate. Political battles will rage over religious exemptions. This might be the end of normal America's tolerance for people who refuse to vaccinate. 

 

Do you know if the any of the vaccines are being tested for person-to-person transmission or efficacy rates?  A few of the vaccines we have now only protect the recipient (mild symptoms or asymptomatic if the person does contract it) and don't prevent the spread or are so infective that even if 100% of the population was vaccinated, we couldn't reach the 95% immunity necessary to protect the community relying only in the vaccine. 

[Arcadia]

Florida https://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article241883676.html
“Florida emergency managers are accustomed to planning for hurricanes. But as the June 1 start of the season grows closer and the state’s coronavirus outbreak lingers on, questions and uncertainties are nagging at the people preparing for the worst-case scenario.

Will a stretched-thin FEMA be ready to respond? What will shelters look like in the age of social distancing? And if shelters open ahead of a hurricane, will vulnerable people leave their homes?

“The biggest issue we’re facing is the sheltering of people in cramped-in areas,” said Frank Rollason, the director of emergency management for Miami-Dade County. “We’ve told people to stay away from each other for so long that if a hurricane comes and we need to open shelters, we’re fearful that they won’t come.”

Florida’s U.S. senators called on the federal government Wednesday to issue guidelines on how states should handle evacuations and storm shelters in the event of a hurricane. And with less than two months to go until the tropics reach the conditions that forecasters expect will generate an above-average storm season, government officials and local politicians are hustling to prepare for what Broward County Mayor Dale Holness described as a “double disaster” of a hurricane strike amid a COVID-19 outbreak.

...

Florida has been hit or narrowly edged by major storms in each of the past four years, including a direct hit to the Panhandle by Category 5 Hurricane Michael. And though state and local planners have for weeks been quietly studying how to navigate storm season amid a pandemic, Florida’s U.S. senators sent a letter to FEMA Director Peter Gaynor asking him to issue guidance to state and local governments about how they should prepare for a hurricane while social distancing measures are in place.”

[Jaybee]

10 hours ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

And this is why you don't run out to get a medicine touted by a non-medical person in a press release. 

I read about this first in an article about a doctor using it (the hydrochloroquine treatment), I believe several days before it was mentioned in a press release. Not defending those who tried to self-treat, by any means, or suggesting following the advice of non-medical personnel; but it was publicly mentioned as a treatment in articles beforehand, so not completely randomly mentioned in the press release, as far as I know.

[Jean in Newcastle]

1 minute ago, Jaybee said:

I read about this first in an article about a doctor using it (the hydrochloroquine treatment), I believe several days before it was mentioned in a press release. Not defending those who tried to self-treat, by any means, or suggesting following the advice of non-medical personnel; but it was publicly mentioned as a treatment in articles beforehand, so not completely randomly mentioned in the press release, as far as I know.

I have read about using Penicillin to treat infections but it would still be irresponsible of me to tell everyone to use it to treat their infection. Some people are allergic. Some are on other meds that interact with Penicillin. Some won’t respond to Penicillin. The responsible thing is to tell people to talk to their doctor about what is best for their individual health needs. 

[Terabith]

1 hour ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

Can you provide examples of vaccines in the former category?  That would as I understand you to be saying, allow one to have the virus, and be as contagious as a sick unvaccinated person? 

For the latter, do you mean they're so ineffective?  

Possibly whooping cough?  I've heard that it reduces/ eliminates symptoms but doesn't do much for contagiousness.  I'm not sure if that's accurate or not though.

[Terabith]

1 minute ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

 

But whooping cough is one of the vaccines where they tell you not to let unvaccinated people around your child.  So, I don't see how that would work if the vaccine doesn't prevent contagion.  

I think it's because if you are infected with whooping cough, if you're asymptomatic, you're not coughing and therefore LESS infectious.  https://www.cdc.gov/pertussis/about/faqs.html

[Jaybee]

17 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I have read about using Penicillin to treat infections but it would still be irresponsible of me to tell everyone to use it to treat their infection. Some people are allergic. Some are on other meds that interact with Penicillin. Some won’t respond to Penicillin. The responsible thing is to tell people to talk to their doctor about what is best for their individual health needs. 

Right. I was only pointing out that, while--like you said--you shouldn't just go out buying every med somebody (no matter who they are) suggests might work, it wasn't something just randomly mentioned by said somebody. There were actually legitimate medical personnel who were saying they were seeing results. I agree with you that none of us should try self-treating outside the advice of our doctors.

[hopeallgoeswell]

43 minutes ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

Can you provide examples of vaccines in the former category?  That would as I understand you to be saying, allow one to have the virus, and be as contagious as a sick unvaccinated person? 

For the latter, do you mean they're so ineffective?  

I don't want to turn this into a vaccine thread because, in my experience, not many can speak civilly, but if people are wanting mandatory vaccines for covid-19 in order for people to be able to leave their houses, I guess it's going to be discussed at some point.  

For pertussis:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2013/11/whooping-cough-vaccine-does-not-stop-spread-disease-lab-animals

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24277828/

It's hard to find any studies, favorable or not, about how effective a specific vaccine is for preventing the spread from person to person. Vaccine studies are not placebo controlled, concomitant, or longitudinal; they just look at if it makes antibody titers.  That might be why we only see the flaws in a vaccine after it's been in circulation for a few decades. 

Measles:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/article-abstract/619215

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3905323/

Possibly mumps, though as powerful as corporations are, I doubt this will go anywhere.  If you search, there are more occurrences of mumps outbreaks in populations with very high vaccination rates, similar to measles paradox. https://www.syracuse.com/health/2017/11/su_mumps_outbreak_whistleblowers_say_vaccine_ineffective.html

The influenza vaccine is known for not being very effective, but it's mandated in some career fields and now in some places for kids over 2 years in order to go to daycare/school.  If I remember correctly, this vaccine decreases symptoms to mild or asymptomatic, so does it prevent the spread?

We always hear the number 95% when talking about herd immunity, but the adult population has never been any where near that.  Some of the more recent vaccines that kids are getting now have incredibly low uptake in the adult population. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/imz-managers/coverage/adultvaxview/pubs-resources/NHIS-2017.html#trends-coverage

New vaccines that are rushed have possible unforeseen consequences. My friend lost her baby because of this. https://childrenshealthdefense.org/news/cdc-study-shows-7-7-fold-greater-odds-miscarriage-influenza-vaccine/

And then there is the underreporting of vaccine adverse events. https://digital.ahrq.gov/sites/default/files/docs/publication/r18hs017045-lazarus-final-report-2011.pdf

There are more studies if you look for them. It definitely isn't a black and white issue. 

[Pen]

3 hours ago, Rosie_0801 said:

 

Huh. That just got me to thinking face masks could end up so ordinary as to live in our undie drawers with the other non-negotiables and be given as gifts by our grandmothers along with socks. As you say, why not? 
 

 

I agree.

 I think face masks may become a new normal.   Which might decrease winter colds and flus also.  

I am definitely gearing up for some washable  face masks to be ready soon. (I don’t have a machine so am dealing with slow handwork versions.) I am mostly using old scraps and clothes, but after seeing the pretty face masks pictures I decided to succumb and order some attractive cotton for visible layer.  I think it might be helpful for emotional uplift to have attractive patterns.  

And I decided face mask use will probably be long term where getting some attractive cloth that makes me feel fairly happy looking at it makes sense.

 

[Arcadia]

1 hour ago, StellaM said:

Sun's out, so the crowds showed up at Bondi.

Some things never change 🤦‍♀️  When I was working, my Sydney office engineers used to be MIA/AWOL during working hours to go to Bondi.

[Pen]

1 hour ago, StellaM said:

Sun's out, so the crowds showed up at Bondi.

This is why we cannot have nice things.

People incapable of delaying gratification.

 

This is almost haiku poetry. 

 

Sun comes: Bondi crowds. 

Delayed gratification:

 Nice things, Longer life

[Ausmumof3]

I want to sew some masks but my mending pile is overflowing and I hate sewing so no doubt I’ll be panic sewing if they start telling us to wear them out here in Aus.  Did I mention that I hate sewing?  I can do it if I have to but it’s my least favourite activity. 

[Ausmumof3]

38 minutes ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

I don't want to turn this into a vaccine thread because, in my experience, not many can speak civilly, but if people are wanting mandatory vaccines for covid-19 in order for people to be able to leave their houses, I guess it's going to be discussed at some point.  

For pertussis:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2013/11/whooping-cough-vaccine-does-not-stop-spread-disease-lab-animals

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24277828/

It's hard to find any studies, favorable or not, about how effective a specific vaccine is for preventing the spread from person to person. Vaccine studies are not placebo controlled, concomitant, or longitudinal; they just look at if it makes antibody titers.  That might be why we only see the flaws in a vaccine after it's been in circulation for a few decades. 

Measles:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/article-abstract/619215

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3905323/

Possibly mumps, though as powerful as corporations are, I doubt this will go anywhere.  If you search, there are more occurrences of mumps outbreaks in populations with very high vaccination rates, similar to measles paradox. https://www.syracuse.com/health/2017/11/su_mumps_outbreak_whistleblowers_say_vaccine_ineffective.html

The influenza vaccine is known for not being very effective, but it's mandated in some career fields and now in some places for kids over 2 years in order to go to daycare/school.  If I remember correctly, this vaccine decreases symptoms to mild or asymptomatic, so does it prevent the spread?

We always hear the number 95% when talking about herd immunity, but the adult population has never been any where near that.  Some of the more recent vaccines that kids are getting now have incredibly low uptake in the adult population. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/imz-managers/coverage/adultvaxview/pubs-resources/NHIS-2017.html#trends-coverage

New vaccines that are rushed have possible unforeseen consequences. My friend lost her baby because of this. https://childrenshealthdefense.org/news/cdc-study-shows-7-7-fold-greater-odds-miscarriage-influenza-vaccine/

And then there is the underreporting of vaccine adverse events. https://digital.ahrq.gov/sites/default/files/docs/publication/r18hs017045-lazarus-final-report-2011.pdf

There are more studies if you look for them. It definitely isn't a black and white issue. 

Measles has been eradicated by vaccine in Australia as far as I understand. This study doesn’t actually say vaccinated individuals can still spread the virus except that the vaccine doesn’t work for around 8pc of people and those can still spread it.  Indicating the need for a better vaccine.  Still better than nothing.

probably we should take this to another thread.