For fun: what current things will be gone/almost gone by 2030?

[mom2scouts]

On 12/25/2019 at 9:24 PM, happysmileylady said:

At the same time, another factor is the laws that are making it harder and hard for teens to get licenses and be independent.  DD23 was actually not legally allowed to get her learners permit until she was 16.5.  Now, she could have gotten it at 16 if we had been willing to pay a few hundred dollars for drivers ed, but we weren't.  And that's another factor, not just the insurance costs, but the costs of the stupid drivers ed courses.  Depending on the location, they can be several hundred dollars per kid.  And some states require them.

 

My state requires anyone under 18 to take driver's ed and it is very expensive, but I don't see that reducing the number of teens getting their driver's license in my area. Even the lower income students scrape up the money to take driver's ed because not being able to drive in this area is a significant problem.

[TrixieB]

On 12/22/2019 at 6:45 PM, Joker said:

The only thing I can really think of is grocery stores. I do think it will be all self check out / scan and go. I think most grocery store employees will become those who are only shopping for customers picking up or having orders delivered. 

I agree with you.  Also I think many grocery stores will end up being warehouses -- entirely online ordering with either home delivery or parking lot pick-up options, same as Amazon.  This will combat the shoplifting losses.  The store security guards don't seem to be much of a deterrent.  

[Guest]

17 hours ago, Homeschool Mom in AZ said:

As for shopping malls, maybe more places will fill them with resale shops they have in Sweden:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/recycled-mall-sweden-retuna_n_5bfd0762e4b0eb6d931346b3

There is a “mall” like this in Maryland. It also has artist’s co-op shops and a couple of rarer shops, like an antique clock shop. It’s a fascinating place to go look around. 

[Guest]

10 hours ago, Plum said:

Tiny houses will finally get the zoning it needs and the movement will explode. 

Interesting that is your prediction, because I think tiny houses - at least, in their current iteration - are a fad and will not sustain. I do think smaller housing with multi-use, more efficient layouts, like Japanese design, will become more prevalent. Huge McMansions have been trending out for a while now. 

But true “tiny houses” as that means normally, I think is a fad. When I went to a tiny home expo, none of the tiny home livers at the expo had been living that way for more than two years. And those who had been living that way the longest had converted buses, not the cute little houses on wheels on offer. It was fun to look at them, but I can’t imagine the realities of living that tiny, even if I were single and childless. 

[Lady Florida.]

1 hour ago, Quill said:

Interesting that is your prediction, because I think tiny houses - at least, in their current iteration - are a fad and will not sustain. I do think smaller housing with multi-use, more efficient layouts, like Japanese design, will become more prevalent. Huge McMansions have been trending out for a while now. 

But true “tiny houses” as that means normally, I think is a fad. When I went to a tiny home expo, none of the tiny home livers at the expo had been living that way for more than two years. And those who had been living that way the longest had converted buses, not the cute little houses on wheels on offer. It was fun to look at them, but I can’t imagine the realities of living that tiny, even if I were single and childless. 

Tiny houses for the homeless seems to be the big thing lately.

They're either a perfect solution to a problem or a truly bad idea, depending on who you talk to and how they're built.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/mar/23/tiny-houses-solution-homelessness-seattle

https://charterforcompassion.org/problem-solving/tiny-houses-for-the-homeless-an-affordable-solution-catches-on

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/real-estate/tiny-houses-big-idea-end-homelessness-n39316

[Teaching3bears]

Why are tiny houses better than apartments? Don't they take up more land but offer less living space?

[Lady Florida.]

17 hours ago, kdsuomi said:

I live in a "suburb" but it's still a tiny town with nothing. City living in cities out here it's far too expensive to even think it would be possible for most young people just setting out. 

 

19 hours ago, Arctic Mama said:

That would be a bit of a buzzkill 🤣

My BIL lives in a very walkable suburb in Canada, and he rides his bike pretty much everywhere.  l<snip> Colder climates are easier for bike commuting, I think, provided one has snow tires on.

Many Florida cities are mainly suburbs, which adds to the difficulty of getting around without a car. Even without the heat and rain it would be a problem. It goes back to the early land booms here, early 1900s to all the way to the 1970s. Developments were designed on a grid with with houses on every lot. Only after the houses were built did they realize that they left no room for any services. No shops, no schools, no libraries, government offices, etc. And somehow they kept doing it over and over again all around the state, usually with full government cooperation. Florida was essentially built as a giant suburb. 

[Sk8ermaiden]

5 hours ago, Teaching3bears said:

Why are tiny houses better than apartments? Don't they take up more land but offer less living space?

My only thought is that here in Houston, where housing is cheap, way out in the burbs, a 1 bed, 1 bath apartment rents for more than my mortgage on my 4 bedroom, two story home. I have a friend who has three children and is forced into much larger apartments that she absolutely can not afford. But buying a home is off the table because of the large down payment required. A tiny home (or in the case of my friend, something like a converted bus) can be economically within reach for more people, and assuming there is a place they're allowed to park it that isn't $$$, they can actually improve their financial situation while living there. 
 

[Guest]

6 hours ago, Teaching3bears said:

Why are tiny houses better than apartments? Don't they take up more land but offer less living space?

IMO, they aren’t and yes, they do. The “infrastructure” of a house is what costs a lot and - to a point at least - once you pay for systems like electric, plumbing, kitchen, exterior and insulation, a few hundred square feet doesn’t increase the cost much, but it does offer a ton of relief of inconveniences. Of course, if the object is to be mobile, that puts a strict limit on how big it can be as well as how much weight you can carry. Even a decision as simple as wanting a cast iron pan suddenly matters. 
It seems to me if the primary feature is mobility, travel trailers do the job better. If the primary goal is having a small living space, condos, townhouses and apartments do the job better. 

[Bluegoat]

Quote

You must not be in Texas. No way people here - except those in the metroplexes - don't need to drive. 

 

Except that driving has been around less that 200 years, and personal vehicles have been common for a fair shorter time than that.

Most rural areas here now are heavily car dependent, but when I was growing up there were many people still alive who remembered when many didn't have cars or trucks, and if they did it was still a big deal to go into own.  Like was organised differently, but in many ways the community was far more active.

It would be even easier to make the necessary lifestyle changes in a suburb where there are plenty of people. The real issue is political and social will.

Edited December 28, 2019 by Bluegoat

[Sk8ermaiden]

44 minutes ago, Bluegoat said:

 

Except that driving has been around less that 200 years, and personal vehicles have been common for a fair shorter time than that.

Most rural areas here now are heavily car dependent, but when I was growing up there were many people still alive who remembered when many didn't have cars or trucks, and if they did it was still a big deal to go into own.  Like was organised differently, but in many ways the community was far more active.

It would be even easier to make the necessary lifestyle changes in a suburb where there are plenty of people. The real issue is political and social will.

OK, except the historical equivalent would be someone saying their child was never going to learn to ride a horse, because they could walk everywhere, or hire a carriage to take them. 

And 200 years ago, outside of major metros, plenty of people would be saying, "Not here you wouldn't!" 

[TravelingChris]

On 12/26/2019 at 11:00 PM, TrixieB said:

I agree with you.  Also I think many grocery stores will end up being warehouses -- entirely online ordering with either home delivery or parking lot pick-up options, same as Amazon.  This will combat the shoplifting losses.  The store security guards don't seem to be much of a deterrent.  

You all live in such different sounding places.  No store security guards here.  No shortage of shopping people either.

[unsinkable]

Hopefully the majority of high speed police chases, with increased use of those starchase tracker devices the police can shoot onto a suspect's car.

They won't be entirely eliminated but these devices will cut them down.

 

[frogger]

I don't think much will be gone. Maybe paper newspapers or magazines but everything else really will just be general trends depending on location etc. 

I do think having the ability to not have a car gives people MORE freedom. After our most recent earthquake it took people 6-8 hours to get home from their place of work in our suburb (if they were in the city). My husband was home within the hour. He could have crossed the ice on the two creek( rivers) he had to cross if bridges were out. Other people would just not be able to get home unless they walked which many were unprepared for. I think of trying to evacuate a place like Seattle for an emergency and it sounds like a cruel joke. Honestly, infastructure for modern vehicles is both super expensive and very fragile.

 

Elderly people, people with disabilities, people who can't afford a car are greatly hindered and often trapped alone by infastructure that is hugely subsidized by my tax dollars and only useful for people with big expensive machines. Why do you think it is so hard to take keys from elderly parents? They feel like a child suddenly when you take their keys because they are dependent on someone else to get them anywhere. Everything they want to do is dependent on someone giving them a ride and if children or other family members are busy they become isolated and alone.  People with mental handicaps (or some physical handicaps like blindness) need rides. Governments (state and local with Federal subsidies) run busses, sometimes even taxis for those with special needs.  Even if a mentally handicapped person manages to get an apartment within a decent walking range, people in cars will still kill them in crosswalks. My brother who has Down Syndrome has had narrow misses twice in his work parking lot and one of his co workers hospitalized in the dang parking lot. 

 

More young people are choosing to not get a licence and to not want to spend hours and hours of their life sitting in traffic, (which greatly affects health). That is their choice to make and only they have their specific life circumstances but in general I think it is a good trend but it will take longer than 10 years. Infastructure and older peoples attitudes will be difficult to change.  My son commuted by bike in Alaska (about 15 miles to the university one way) and he does so in Alabama which is hot and humid. My husband also commutes by bike in both Alabama and Alaska.  The main problem is not weather or infastructure, it is drivers who think the world belongs to them and murder pedestrians, other drivers, cycliests at will because they feel they can drive 20 over the speed limit, roll through stop signs, all while looking at their phones. 

Self-driving cars may help but they will need a lot of work first. More people are wanting to live in people friendly communities now and I think we will at least make progress on it. 

Edited December 28, 2019 by frogger

[Bluegoat]

The difference between personal vehicles and horses or walking are that personal vehicles rely on cheap plentiful energy, be it in the form of batteries or fuel oil.  And changes in the energy economy are going to see those resources become less available except for real needs.  

Real needs don't really include poorly planned and designed communities and homes and neighbourhoods, those things are relatively easy to change or adapt if there is a need. For example the suburban communities mentioned without any places for shops or schools or workplaces - changes to zoning, or even people simply ignoring zoning on a widespread basis, can solve a lot of that, homes can become shops and schools, small homes can be placed in yards to create more density, other types of infills can be built.  If transport is more dear people will find they need to live closer to work, but communities will also need more workers in them as people need more local services.

To some extent these changes have already started, in the US there has been a reversal of urban/suburban land and home values. This has had the negative effect in many cities or forcing the poor into more outlying areas, and they are less likely to have vehicles.  Those communities ultimately will create the amenties people need, whether through legal means or otherwise.  Cities that catch on to this sooner will be more sucessful and save money as well.

 

[Ausmumof3]

On 12/26/2019 at 4:48 AM, Margaret in CO said:

Yep--at least they check their email! When I get chewed out because "We don't know what's going on!" I point out that all THREE of them got the emails!

I would be one of these

I get so much flipping spam.  One day I tried to deal with just that days emails and it took me 45 minutes. Out of that maybe one thing was email I actually needed to read and action. Ain’t no mum got time for that.  Almost everything I care about goes to Facebook or messenger these days.  I do a quick email scan and try to catch everything but miss stuff sometimes.