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Yowza! Home prices in our area


DawnM
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Home  prices seem to have gone up about 50% in the last 10 years, at least in the nicer parts of the city.  This is in NC.

 

I have been reading that housing prices have increased along the West and East Coast, while prices in the mid-west have gone flat, and in some cases, have decreased.

 

Comparing your area to 10 years ago, what does your area look like?

 

 

Edited by DawnM
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We are in West Michigan and housing prices are way up in most markets. Even with the Hugh prices there are many areas where inventory is very low and houses sell in a day or 2.

 

What is very sad though is that the middle class here is shrinking greatly. DH earns less with less benefits now than he did 10+ years ago. Even skilled jobs are starting out at $10/he but housing prices are sky High and rentals are extremely hard to find, esp affordable ones.

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Are you trying to make me cry?

 

We bought our house 12 years ago (exactly 12 years in 2 more weeks.)  In that market, we felt we got a decent deal at $165k.

On paper, it's currently worth $117k today.

That's before paying for repairs and serious cosmetics that are needed after raising 5 kids and multiple pets in a small home.  It also doesn't account for the fact that we're surrounded by foreclosures which would get buyers much more house for their money.  In other words, it's worthless.

 

We could afford a much bigger, nicer house (and/or more property) if we could offload this one. Alas, we cannot.  My goal right now is to get enough wiggle room to turn this into a vacation rental, but that could take so long that the market might rebound by then. :::fingers crossed:::

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We are in West Michigan and housing prices are way up in most markets. Even with the Hugh prices there are many areas where inventory is very low and houses sell in a day or 2.

 

What is very sad though is that the middle class here is shrinking greatly. DH earns less with less benefits now than he did 10+ years ago. Even skilled jobs are starting out at $10/he but housing prices are sky High and rentals are extremely hard to find, esp affordable ones.

 

UGH!  Dh and I are looking at moving, and salary is a huge issue right now.  I am worried that DH's salary has hit its peak and we will not get that salary with another company.

 

DH is starting to second guess our move.  I guess we will see if/what he is offered, but yeah, salary could be an issue.

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Are you trying to make me cry?

 

We bought our house 12 years ago (exactly 12 years in 2 more weeks.)  In that market, we felt we got a decent deal at $165k.

On paper, it's currently worth $117k today.

That's before paying for repairs and serious cosmetics that are needed after raising 5 kids and multiple pets in a small home.  It also doesn't account for the fact that we're surrounded by foreclosures which would get buyers much more house for their money.  In other words, it's worthless.

 

We could afford a much bigger, nicer house (and/or more property) if we could offload this one. Alas, we cannot.  My goal right now is to get enough wiggle room to turn this into a vacation rental, but that could take so long that the market might rebound by then. :::fingers crossed:::

 

 

NO!

 

And we live further out, so our house prices haven't jumped as much at all.  

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We live in one of the cheapest housing markets in the country, and we're in NY (massive amounts of snow, so low demand.) Our values are flat. We either overpaid for our house 6 years ago, or the value went down, because it was recently appraised for less than we paid. We are trying to pay down our mortgage so we can move somewhere warmer!

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Housing prices climbed and climbed and climbed in many areas of the country right before the housing crash.   Because of that and other factors many people who bought homes right after the crash were still paying higher prices than the market could sustain long term.  In some areas those houses have devalued.  In other areas housing prices sort of stabilized for a bit then started climbing again.  The housing crash of 2007/2008/2009 happened for a variety of complex reasons but two big ones were extremely low lending rates coupled with very risky loan profiles and increased government regulation on house building.  The increased regulations made it unprofitable to build new homes, especially after the crash, which caused inventory to eventually fall.  

 

Unfortunately, the things that caused the crash before are still around, although most lenders still around after the crash are not doing the super high risk loans anymore.   The issues still exist, though, and the markets in many areas across the country are facing another massive housing bubble which cannot be sustained while other areas never really recovered from the crash and housing prices continue to drop or have stagnated.   Unless you are living in a very stable housing area, it is a risky time to be moving.

 

Anyone looking to move should do extensive research on the area they are considering moving to.  

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I think increasing population generally leads to higher home prices.  Not much new land is being created.   I just looked on Zillow at the home in the L.A. area we lived in when I was a young boy. The home had either been enlarged or torn down and a new house built on that lot since then.  It is not on the market at this time but Zillow shows an estimated value of $1,992,869.  Rent Zestimate®: $9,005 /mo   It is in an extremely desirable section of the San Fernando Valley (Sherman Oaks).   We would not be able to rent that home or pay the taxes on it with my retirement income.

 
We bought this lot in January 2013 and it is probably worth at least 5 times what we paid for it. Possibly more than that.  We are in Cali, Colombia. There is a lot of new construction here, but most of it is apartment buildings or very small homes. When we bought the lot there had been a housing bust here, similar to what happened in the USA and we purchased the lot at almost the perfect time and got an extremely low price on it.  
 
IMO if you are considering, or contemplating, moving to California, you will need a HUGE salary increase to make it there,.  My cousins who live there have lived in the same houses for many years.
Edited by Lanny
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Our former home in the Midwest has essentially tripled in value since we sold right before the crash.

 

Houses in our current neighbourhood are climbing rapidly. Homes around us are going for significantly more than we bought 5-6 years ago, and locals all over our area are being priced out of the market. I'd love to downsize when DS goes off to college, but it probably won't make economic sense. The few rentals around rent for much more than we pay for our mortgage.

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I keep hoping the market here will crash so I can afford to buy a house before I'm in a nursing home :/

 

The last house we lived in (3/2, 1300 sqft) was purchased for $199k in 2010 and sold for $295k in 2016 in a miserable state. It did have new carpet, but an estimated $25k to fix problems/update. And that was just for the inside, the yard was a moderate disaster. BIL bought his house 3 years ago for $450 and the *next year*, they were thinking of already moving because it was estimated at over $600

 

My parent's house was recently estimated at $80k more than it was 5 years ago.

 

However, things do seem to begin to be stabilizing in this low/middle price range. And $$$ homes are having to drop those prices a bit. It's tough for someone wanting to buy, but I can't imagine living in a home that dropped value significantly over the years. That's rough.

Edited by Ailaena
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DawnM: I know your dream destination is CA, but possibly give consideration to Las Vegas or Reno. Close, but with a FAR lower cost of living. You could drive down to visit your relatives in a few hours from Las Vegas if they are in SO CA.

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DawnM: I know your dream destination is CA, but possibly give consideration to Las Vegas or Reno. Close, but with a FAR lower cost of living. You could drive down to visit your relatives in a few hours from Las Vegas if they are in SO CA.

 

No.  I can either work in NC or CA, but adding a 3rd state would mess up my retirement COMPLETELY.

 

And I have NO desire to live in Nevada, none. I will stay in NC before I move to a state with no beaches and in the heat of the dessert hours from anything.  

 

Really.  I don't like the dessert at all.  

 

It isn't a "dream destination" it is home.  I am moving back home.  

Edited by DawnM
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Suburb north of Denver CO here...Our house value has increased 12% this past year. We moved here 6 years ago and our home is valued at 52% more than we paid for it.

 

Same for Colorado Springs.  People here are buying houses in the lower price range sight unseen because houses will be on the market for two day with multiple offers.  Moving here today, we would have been priced out of many markets and probably had to spend more than we were willing to spend.  The field that I could see just down the road from me two years ago now has over 100 houses on it.  

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I think increasing population generally leads to higher home prices.  Not much new land is being created.   I just looked on Zillow at the home in the L.A. area we lived in when I was a small boy. The home had either been enlarged or torn down and a new house built on that lot since then.  It is not on the market at this time but Zillow shows an estimated value of $1,992,869.  Rent Zestimate®: $9,005 /mo   It is in an extremely desirable section of the San Fernando Valley (Sherman Oaks).   We would not be able to rent that home or pay the taxes on it with my retirement income.

 
We bought this lot in January 2013 and it is probably worth at least 5 times what we paid for it. Possibly more than that.  We are in Cali, Colombia. There is a lot of new construction here, but most of it is apartment buildings or very small homes. When we bought the lot there had been a housing bust here, similar to what happened in the USA and we purchased the lot at almost the perfect time and got an extremely low price on it.  
 
IMO if you are considering, or contemplating, moving to California, you will need a HUGE salary increase to make it there,.  My cousins who live there have lived in the same houses for many years.

 

 

 

We are well aware of housing prices.

 

This thread was more about "your area housing prices increasing."

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I've been reading up on the crash and housing markets in general and what is currently happening.  I find it fascinating but also worrisome.  While increasing population is a factor, there is so much more going on.  There are a lot of complex systems that are interrelated and what is happening in one sector will affect others, either immediately or down the line.  One factor I did not mention above but is also affecting things is the push to build high end homes instead of starter homes after the crash.  Actually, there are so many different things affecting the market, if you read lots of different analyses you will get lots of different people saying lots of different things as to why the market is what it is now.

 

Here are some articles that might be of interest (listed in chronological order)...

 

http://www.mybudget360.com/housing-bubble-set-to-pop-home-values-in-housing-bubble-real-estate-inflated/

 

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/29/were-in-a-new-housing-bubble-why-its-less-scary-this-time.html

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-26/2017-economic-headwinds-housing-bubbles-popping-and-just-plain-popping-everywhere

 

http://www.newsweek.com/quora-question-are-we-housing-bubble-565516

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The saddest part about all of this is that houses used to be built that were 2000 sq. ft or smaller, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and still considered very nice areas.  

 

I am reading articles about builders and how they don't even bother with those because they make so much more money building the mini-mansions and people are buying homes far beyond the percentages they used to because it is now the norm.

 

 

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As for my local area, yes, housing prices have increased over the past several years.  What we could buy 15 years ago and what could be bought for the same amount are not the same.  We live in a stable market, thankfully, so the increases have not been as huge as in other areas but yes, the prices have increased quite a bit.  Where my brother lives, in San Antonio, the housing prices have increased much faster.  And my BILs, who live in Austin have seen prices fly through the roof.

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The saddest part about all of this is that houses used to be built that were 2000 sq. ft or smaller, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and still considered very nice areas.  

 

I am reading articles about builders and how they don't even bother with those because they make so much more money building the mini-mansions and people are buying homes far beyond the percentages they used to because it is now the norm.

Yes!  Two of the articles I linked above touch on this.  It is really negatively affecting a LOT of people.  It stinks.  I worry what the long term consequences will be.  

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I've been reading up on the crash and housing markets in general and what is currently happening.  I find it fascinating but also worrisome.  While increasing population is a factor, there is so much more going on.  There are a lot of complex systems that are interrelated and what is happening in one sector will affect others, either immediately or down the line.  One factor I did not mention above but is also affecting things is the push to build high end homes instead of starter homes after the crash.  Actually, there are so many different things affecting the market, if you read lots of different analyses you will get lots of different people saying lots of different things as to why the market is what it is now.

 

Here are some articles that might be of interest (listed in chronological order)...

 

http://www.mybudget360.com/housing-bubble-set-to-pop-home-values-in-housing-bubble-real-estate-inflated/

 

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/29/were-in-a-new-housing-bubble-why-its-less-scary-this-time.html

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-26/2017-economic-headwinds-housing-bubbles-popping-and-just-plain-popping-everywhere

 

http://www.newsweek.com/quora-question-are-we-housing-bubble-565516

 

 

 understand what they are saying, but I read articles exactly like this 5 years ago.  And 8 years ago.  And 10 years ago.

 

And each time, they said, "But this is DIFFERENT than the last time we wrote about it."  

 

I guess it will happen when it happens.  It is very hard to predict housing, esp within the last 10 years.    

 

 

It DOES give pause to buying in the near future though, doesn't it?

Edited by DawnM
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Yes!  Two of the articles I linked above touch on this.  It is really negatively affecting a LOT of people.  It stinks.  I worry what the long term consequences will be.  

 

Lots more foreclosures!  

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I understand what they are saying, but I read articles exactly like this 5 years ago.  And 8 years ago.  And 10 years ago.

 

And each time, they said, "But this is DIFFERENT than the last time we wrote about it."  

 

I guess it will happen when it happens.  It is very hard to predict housing, esp within the last 10 years.    

 

It DOES give pause to buying in the near future though, doesn't it?

:iagree:  :iagree:  :iagree: 

 

Very hard to predict.  When you read these articles and look over the historical data long term hindsight may be 20/20 but looking forward it IS hard to predict what exactly is going to happen.  Things keep shifting like sand.  And it does make it kind of nerve-wracking to determine if moving/buying/selling makes any sense right now.  Sometimes people don't have a choice but when you do, it is so frustrating not having a clear idea of where the market is going and what the best course of action is.

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Home  prices seem to have gone up about 50% in the last 10 years, at least in the nicer parts of the city.

 

I have been reading that housing prices have increased along the West and East Coast, while prices in the mid-west have gone flat, and in some cases, have decreased.

 

Comparing your area to 10 years ago, what does your area look like?

 

seattle area . . . where I am, it's i.n.s.a.n.e. . . . .

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I'm just outside Seattle. It's insane here. I'm on vacation so not going to spend time looking up %%, but in the last 3 years the houses in my neighborhood went from 300,000's to 600,000+. In 3 years. Many have 1 bath. Would be rare to have a/c. I heard median home price in Seattle is 750k now. We are getting priced out to buy.. We hoped to do it in a few years. Dh is most likely at max salary earning. I don't regret moving here, but I'm not sure we can afford to buy here or retire here. How we save when kids move out will be important for our future years. We will move to a smaller place when they leave just to save money. We are open to buying an RV even. I know one gal told me she gets offers on her house all the time, but even with the big profit she can't afford any thing else out there.

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Southern AZ: our home value is back up to what it was in 2008 (when we bought), after going down maybe 40K in the past 9 years. I had called a realtor recently to get an idea of what it would be like to sell right now, and he was positive about the process and price for my type of home (barring major damage, etc). He said he's been having houses similar to mine in contract within 2-3 days of listing, and very few houses being on the market longer than a month. 

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I think increasing population generally leads to higher home prices. Not much new land is being created.

We had a large, steady increase through the 90s (before I got here.) Then a fast, giant plummet! It's screwed up the entire region. :-(

 

There's still plenty of land to buy here, but the gabillion home building companies are now mostly defunct. School buildings sit empty. Abandoned homes get vandalized.

 

I still adore it here. :-) I'm probably nuts.

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Before the bubble burst, our house was worth $150,000.00. Now it would fetch about $35,000.00

 

The market here never recovered. Recently a very profitable meat market with taxidermy services and a gorgeous 4000 Sq ft house, pond, pool, high end appliances, every bell and whistle you can name sold for a whopping combined total of $325,000.00.

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Before the bubble burst, our house was worth $150,000.00. Now it would fetch about $35,000.00

 

The market here never recovered. Recently a very profitable meat market with taxidermy services and a gorgeous 4000 Sq ft house, pond, pool, high end appliances, every bell and whistle you can name sold for a whopping combined total of $325,000.00.

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The saddest part about all of this is that houses used to be built that were 2000 sq. ft or smaller, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and still considered very nice areas.

Those would be new townhouses around here instead of new single family homes.

 

We bought our one bedroom condo for $400k in 2006, same floor plan was sold at lowest of $270k in 2009/10. The last two years, same floor plan sold for $540-$800k. One of those company megabus stop at the front of my complex so landlords, singles and young couples like to buy the one bedroom units as starter homes or rental property. My married neighbor rented out her unit and stayed with parents until her son was in kindergarten, her husband didn't mind as the rent helped pay down their mortgage faster.

Edited by Arcadia
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We bought our home here in San Jose 19 years ago.  It is an itty-bitty starter (3/2 1150sq ft) for under  $200K (we were in a bidding war with several other families & happy to get it.)  By 2008 the value was over $600K.  We had 4 kids crammed into this little house and we considered moving into a bigger house.  Then the market dropped like a rock, so we waited.  Here we are in 2017 with one kid married & out of the house, one kid in college full time and out of the house most of the time and our little house is starting to feel like a comfortable size again.  We regularly get flyers & inquiries from real estate companies about whether we are ready to sell.  They tell us the current list price would be  $650K-$725K depending on how fast we wanted it to move.  I guess you could say it has recovered.

 

The current norm around here is to hang on to your house as long as you can and then when you are ready to retire you sell and go some place much cheaper with the proceeds of your house.  According to one realtor the problem in this area is no one moves on out of their starter house so there are no "inexpensive" houses for young people to move into.  Our problem is I have never lived anywhere but California.  I didn't leave California to go to college the way my children have.  I love it here.  I need the ocean.  I can't imagine retiring and living somewhere else.

 

Amber in SJ

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Before the bubble burst, our house was worth $150,000.00. Now it would fetch about $35,000.00

 

The market here never recovered. Recently a very profitable meat market with taxidermy services and a gorgeous 4000 Sq ft house, pond, pool, high end appliances, every bell and whistle you can name sold for a whopping combined total of $325,000.00.

 

I am sorry.   And you are in MI, right?

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House prices in my area are back up to a little more than they were when we bought in 2005. We paid $157k in 2005, we considered moving in 2008 when it was worth $140k, and considered selling recently when it's worth is estimated at $166k.

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We bought this house just over ten years ago and I'd say the value is about the same. Our area. Ever experienced a housing bubble OR the recession the lower 48 did, but we are in a statewide recession now due to irresponsible government spending and oil prices not supporting the cash grab (boo hoo, right?) so any gains in value have been absorbed by the massive layoffs and glut of inventory driving the prices down again.

 

I don't really care that if didn't gain value while we lived in it, but I'm very glad it hasn't appreciably LOST value either.

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This part of CA housing prices are climbing but slower than coastal areas. We may be close to pre-recession prices but I can't be sure since I did not live here then.

Dawn, can you see yourself living anywhere up or down the valley? Median prices for average 1500sqft 3/2 hover around 200-400,000 depending on area. More rural areas cost less, closer to Sacramento, it's more. Can your dh work from home and commute only for meetings, etc? The Turlock area is still behind other areas in housing prices yet it's not Fresno or Modesto in terms of crime rate.

 

This whole housing issue is always such a headache.

I feel if you buy something you can pay for and live with and you plan on being there for a long time, temporary or even more permanent drops in prices are not a huge factor since my goal is always to pay off any mortgage and have a place to live.

 

If you are in a position where job changes or other circumstances may make it necessary to move at the drop of a hat, it's really difficult to make a good decision. It would seem more luck than anything else.

 

ETA: Got interested now and found a place that estimated an 11% increase in prices from last year at this time.

Edited by Liz CA
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I live in northern Virginia. Home prices for my town were higher 10 years ago. They have not quite recovered from the big dip although they are getting closer. There was a huge price jump here in the early 2000s.

Yep, same experience, same location.

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This part of CA housing prices are climbing but slower than coastal areas. We may be close to pre-recession prices but I can't be sure since I did not live here then.

Dawn, can you see yourself living anywhere up or down the valley? Median prices for average 1500sqft 3/2 hover around 200-400,000 depending on area. More rural areas cost less, closer to Sacramento, it's more. Can your dh work from home and commute only for meetings, etc? The Turlock area is still behind other areas in housing prices yet it's not Fresno or Modesto in terms of crime rate.

 

This whole housing issue is always such a headache.

I feel if you buy something you can pay for and live with and you plan on being there for a long time, temporary or even more permanent drops in prices are not a huge factor since my goal is always to pay off any mortgage and have a place to live.

 

If you are in a position where job changes or other circumstances may make it necessary to move at the drop of a hat, it's really difficult to make a good decision. It would seem more luck than anything else.

 

ETA: Got interested now and found a place that estimated an 11% increase in prices from last year at this time.

 

 

This honestly isn't about me or my CA move. My original post was about prices in NC, not CA.

 

No, we aren't moving to Sacramento or anywhere in Central CA.

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I think increasing population generally leads to higher home prices. 

 

 

if you want to be super super basic, yeah.  but here they enacted an "urban growth boundary" to force all development inside- so, land prices skyrocketed.  outside is very difficult to get the permits to build - if you can.  to justify building a house on expensive land - builders build expensive homes.   on my street, houses are being torn down, property subdivided, and mcmansions building built.

seattle is trying to get people to have "mini-homes" on their property for people to live in.

 

an article in a new york paper (don't remember which one) was reporting on skyrocketing housing prices here, and said one of the reasons is vancouver CA made it much more difficult for non-citizens to purchase homes. 25 years ago, the stories were going around about chinese from hong kong driving around with a real estate agent for showings - ticking off the agent by not getting out of the car as they drive around to see half a dozen homes and at the end saying "ill take them all".  they were pricing canadians out of the market. chinese were coming in and parking their money in real estate.  now . . .they are coming here.   I have seen it first hand, and spoken with developers.   multimillion dollar homes. they want their money out of china.  (says something about their faith in their own currency)

 

that's on top of the tech boom here.

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Finally after several years of trying we were finally able to sell our house in WI we bought for 104k and sold it for 80k :(   Where we live now housing prices are climbing quickly house that were selling for 300K last year are now 350K and sell in days.

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The current norm around here is to hang on to your house as long as you can and then when you are ready to retire you sell and go some place much cheaper with the proceeds of your house.  

 

I think they're coming to Oregon. Bend in particular is growing like crazy. We've had articles in our paper about how the worker bees who have grown up there are being priced out. The local salaries are not high enough to afford the cost of housing there. The people who can afford to buy there typically sold a house at CA prices and moved here.

 

Our local house prices peaked in 2007 and were down for about 3 years after that. Now we do not have enough homes to satisfy demand and the laws and codes have been such that it's difficult to get new developments approved. Difficult and expensive. There was no new construction for several years after the crash, but there is some now and as others have noted, it's not affordable starter homes. I think that the neighborhood going up about a mile from where we live is designed for downsizing empty-nesters coming in from CA. They are actually building single-level homes--we pay attention to such things because we have a kid in a wheelchair and almost all new construction here in the last 15 years has been 2-story homes. These new single-level homes have essentially no yards--need to maximize how many houses they can fit in the development--but still cost over half a million dollars. That's out of range for most salaries here; only someone downsizing from a high-value home can afford that.

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This honestly isn't about me or my CA move. My original post was about prices in NC, not CA.

 

No, we aren't moving to Sacramento or anywhere in Central CA.

 

Would you consider somewhere like San Luis Obispo? My cousin the eminent retired M.D. lived near there for many years, until very recently.  I remember driving through there, but I do not remember if it is on the ocean, or you need to drive a little to get to the coast. That cousin now lives in TX.  I am assuming (which I try not to do) that the prices there would be lower than in the San Diego area (my favorite),  or the L.A./Orange County area, or up in the Bay area.  

 

The downside of that area would be far fewer job opportunities. Possibly somewhat lower salaries but the (lower?) cost of living would hopefully make up for that.

 

Everywhere you look, compromises will need to be made. 

 

Another cousin lived in Santa Barbara many years ago, but I think that's $$$$$$$$. She lives North of San Francisco now, which is also not inexpensive..  Another cousin lives in Ojai, South of Santa Barbara.  

 

Comparing prices (and what you get for the same money) between NC and CA will be a sticker shock problem.  Evaluate the job offers when they come in. There are web sites that show, if you put in where you live now and what you earn now, what you would need to make in another area, to maintain a similar quality of living.

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We bought nearly 20 years ago, and the house has more than doubled. It's mostly the land though. Our lot was around $50,000 when the builder purchased it. Now it would be 5-7x more to buy the same size in a similar location.

 

We seriously couldn't afford this neighborhood now!

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We bought our home here in San Jose 19 years ago.  It is an itty-bitty starter (3/2 1150sq ft) for under  $200K (we were in a bidding war with several other families & happy to get it.)  By 2008 the value was over $600K.  We had 4 kids crammed into this little house and we considered moving into a bigger house.  Then the market dropped like a rock, so we waited.  Here we are in 2017 with one kid married & out of the house, one kid in college full time and out of the house most of the time and our little house is starting to feel like a comfortable size again.  We regularly get flyers & inquiries from real estate companies about whether we are ready to sell.  They tell us the current list price would be  $650K-$725K depending on how fast we wanted it to move.  I guess you could say it has recovered.

 

The current norm around here is to hang on to your house as long as you can and then when you are ready to retire you sell and go some place much cheaper with the proceeds of your house.  According to one realtor the problem in this area is no one moves on out of their starter house so there are no "inexpensive" houses for young people to move into.  Our problem is I have never lived anywhere but California.  I didn't leave California to go to college the way my children have.  I love it here.  I need the ocean.  I can't imagine retiring and living somewhere else.

 

Amber in SJ

So you'll do what the other half of everyone does around here- live there until you die. A number of homes that we looked at in your same range of price/sq footage were trust sales after the owners had spent 50+ years in the home.

 

Prop 13 is another reason so many starter homes become forever homes around here.

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