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Japan travel in uncertain times


Barb_
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One of my college kids was accepted into a study abroad program for the summer. How would you feel about that if she were yours in light of all the tension in the South Seas right now? She's a grown up and ultimately the decision is hers, but I'd like to clarify my thoughts in case we discuss it over spring break.

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My husband is a Defense employee living on a military base in Japan.  I asked about the current  atmosphere on base. He said that currently there is no active response to any tension.  Of course, things could change but the doesn't seem to be a deploy ready posture at this time.

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I would have zero concerns. Of course, there are no promises no matter where she is this summer, but I wouldn't worry about sending a child to Japan. I have a nephew in South Korea right now, another who just left Japan, and lots of friends in the region.

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I wouldn't worry about Japan. When dd studied in Japan she was very safe. Oddly enough I'm more worried about her while she's in Chicago than I ever worried about her in Japan.

 

Where is dd studying? How exciting for her!

That's pretty funny because my teens take the train into Chicago by themselves and it doesn't bother me at all, lol

 

It's just a six week internship. She's taking two classes that I don't recall right now, but she studies Japanese at school and hopes to improve with immersion. Thanks for asking!

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That's pretty funny because my teens take the train into Chicago by themselves and it doesn't bother me at all, lol

 

It's just a six week internship. She's taking two classes that I don't recall right now, but she studies Japanese at school and hopes to improve with immersion. Thanks for asking!

 

I worry because dd is about to turn 25 but looks much closer to 16.  And she's not always as aware of her surroundings as she should be.  And she prefers to be out at night. 

 

I'm sure your dd will have a great time! 

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I worry because dd is about to turn 25 but looks much closer to 16. And she's not always as aware of her surroundings as she should be. And she prefers to be out at night.

 

I'm sure your dd will have a great time!

I get it. We all have to pick and choose our neuroses :lol:

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Well, I was going to let my dd do a study abroad in Beirut, so I'm probably not a good one to ask. :D

 

But in all seriousness, I think I'd feel pretty comfortable about Japan.

Beirut is really high on my list of places to live. My parents lived there for a couple of years about six years ago, but we couldn't afford a visit at the time. So sad.

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I believe the possibility of there being an attack on Japan, while your DD is there, is extremely low.  If she likes the program and they like her, I'd go for it.  I think it is much more likely that NK would launch a Ballistic Missile to South Korea, than that they would launch toward Japan.  In either event, if NK ever does such a thing, the response will be extremely rapid and forceful.  It is easier (but not that easy) to launch a missile, than to intercept one, which is where this topic  gets even more dangerous.

 

The higher probability in Japan is of a major earthquake while your DD is there.

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I believe the possibility of there being an attack on Japan, while your DD is there, is extremely low. If she likes the program and they like her, I'd go for it. I think it is much more likely that NK would launch a Ballistic Missile to South Korea, than that they would launch toward Japan. In either event, if NK ever does such a thing, the response will be extremely rapid and forceful. It is easier (but not that easy) to launch a missile, than to intercept one, which is where this topic gets even more dangerous.

 

The higher probability in Japan is of a major earthquake while your DD is there.

Aaack! Thanks a lot! :lol:

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I live in Japan and am freaked out about visiting the US this summer, let alone the idea of having to send DS there to college in a couple years. I love it here, and yeah nothing has changed regarding anything.

 

ETA: yes, the bigger threat is natural disaster as we remember the Tohoku earthquake today. It's been six years.

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I live in Japan and am freaked out about visiting the US this summer, let alone the idea of having to send DS there to college in a couple years. I love it here, and yeah nothing has changed regarding anything.

A French mom contacted me recently about hosting her teen for the summer and I almost wrote back, really?are you sure you want to send your kid here? Lol.
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That's pretty funny because my teens take the train into Chicago by themselves and it doesn't bother me at all, lol

 

It's just a six week internship. She's taking two classes that I don't recall right now, but she studies Japanese at school and hopes to improve with immersion. Thanks for asking!

 

 

Much more dangerous in Chicago than in Japan.   The possibility of something happening, during a 6 week period, in Japan, in 2017,  is extremely low. Close to zero.

 

Even if NK were to launch a missile to Japan, at this time it is questionable if they could attach a Nuclear device to one. In another year or two, the world will be a much more dangerous place, as NK develops and improves their systems.

 

I think your DD should read up about what to do if there is an Earthquake, and enjoy the 6 weeks in Japan.

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Much more dangerous in Chicago than in Japan. The possibility of something happening, during a 6 week period, in Japan, in 2017, is extremely low. Close to zero.

 

Even if NK were to launch a missile to Japan, at this time it is questionable if they could attach a Nuclear device to one. In another year or two, the world will be a much more dangerous place, as NK develops and improves their systems.

 

I think your DD should read up about what to do if there is an Earthquake, and enjoy the 6 weeks in Japan.

That's a really good idea. Probably should suggest that to my other daughter who's moving to LA for her PhD.

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That's a really good idea. Probably should suggest that to my other daughter who's moving to LA for her PhD.

 

Amen.   I'm a CA native and they have quite a few earthquakes there and are waiting for "the big one".  This week, they reported that a new Fault has been discovered, just off the coast, running from San Diego to Long Beach.

 

We live in "earthquake country" (Colombia) and they are so infrequent, that I forget, between them, what one should do or not do, during an earthquake. When I was in the bank on Friday, waiting for my turn, on the Monitor where it shows whose turn it is and with which Teller, they have a thing about earthquake safety.

 

My favorite singer/band was in Japan, I think this was about 6 or 7 years ago, when there was a very major earthquake. They wee in their hotel rooms and the earthquake was in the middle of the night. They were all OK.   

 

NOTE: One should always have a working flashlight near their bed. In a hotel (or other strange environment) this is more necessary.

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I just read this article and watched the interesting and excellent video on that web page.  Sobering...  I still believe that the possibility of there being an attack on Japan, during the 6 weeks your daughter is in Japan, is close to zero and that she should read up on what do to in the more likely scenario of an earthquake during the 6 weeks she is there. Also, when they attack, it will be much easier for them to attack South Korea. Whoever they attack, the retaliation will be tremendous...   With regard to their development of ICBMs, when they have that working, I think they might be interested in Anchorage, which is probably much closer than Honolulu, but I haven't checked the distances and am just guessing that AK is closer to them than HI. Tell  your daughter to practice her Japanese language skills in preparation for her 6 weeks in Japan!

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/03/13/north-koreas-kim-jong-un-from-punchline-to-world-menace.html

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The situation with North Korea is grave because their leader is so unstable and there is less intelligence about their capability. Far worse than Iran at this time if that is possible. If NK attacks they will receive an immediate response. Possibly Obama should have done a Preemptive strike but I can imagine the possible ramifications of that he read about in the plan they prepared for him. We must not allow them to develop the capability to take out Los Angeles or San Francisco

 

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The situation with North Korea is grave because their leader is so unstable and there is less intelligence about their capability. Far worse than Iran at this time if that is possible. If NK attacks they will receive an immediate response. Possibly Obama should have done a Preemptive strike but I can imagine the possible ramifications of that he read about in the plan they prepared for him. We must not allow them to develop the capability to take out Los Angeles or San Francisco

 

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Unfortunately our wheel here in the US is currently unmanned.  Not sure who will grab it and save us.  Perhaps no one.

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That's a really good idea. Probably should suggest that to my other daughter who's moving to LA for her PhD.

I was here for the Tohoku earthquake and am originally from CA. I figure if I had to go through a "big one" I'm glad it was here and not in So Cal. I couldn't even imagine the chaos that would take place compared to the calm and orderliness I saw of the Japanese. I would say it's a good idea to be prepared either way though. It shakes A LOT here.

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I was here for the Tohoku earthquake and am originally from CA. I figure if I had to go through a "big one" I'm glad it was here and not in So Cal. I couldn't even imagine the chaos that would take place compared to the calm and orderliness I saw of the Japanese. I would say it's a good idea to be prepared either way though. It shakes A LOT here.

Yes, I was in Tokyo for the Tohoku earthquake. Very calm, orderly, no panic. Waited in very peaceful lines for a bus home... it took 8 hours but I made it home safely.

 

Terrorism or attacks aren't something to be too concerned about, I think. Belligerence from NK is so frequent that most of the Japanese people I know don't worry too much about it anymore. Even earthquakes, there's few places safer than Japan when it comes to building safety. They have extremely strict codesï¼anything built after 1981 is earthquake-proof up to richter 7 I think? And after the Tohoku one they updated the codes as well. I've been through three or four earthquakes above richter 4 while living in Japan, and never so much as a broken window from the shaking.

 

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There are probably thousands of people, in and near DC, and in South Korea, trying to figure out how to respond, if North Korea attacks.  Or, as was apparently considered by the Obama administration, how to do a Preemptive strike and then deal with the aftermath. Either scenario is horrible.  Both are nightmares of enormous scale.  Probably they are looking at ways to get into NK and do some serious damage, without taking them out with a Preemptive Nuclear attack, but that may or may not be possible or successful.  It would be incredibly easy for NK to attack SK. That's their easiest target and there are 30K U.S. Military in SK, plus a lot of U.S. civilians, so the response would be immediate.. I do not see NK attacking Guam, because it is so far away. So, it would look like if they attack, it would be South Korea or Japan.  To go back to the OP and her DD, I suggest they make the airline and other reservations and plan for her DD to have a wonderful experience in Japan during the 6 weeks she is there.

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Also, this isn't often discussed but OP's DD should REGISTER as a traveler with the State Dept. The US embassies in each country have a list of all US citizens KNOWN to be visiting or residing in that country, but they don't receive it from airlines or school programsï¼each traveler is responsible for doing that on her own. It's very simple, you let them know the dates you'll be in the country and once you get to the country update your registration with your in-country contact info. Then you never think about it again, unless there's a catastrophe. 24 hours after the Tohoku earthquake I received a call to my Japanese cell phone from the US embassy in Tokyo. They let me know that due to the nuclear disaster they had chartered enough planes to get the US citizens out of (x-mile radius of) the danger zone and back to the States, and offered me a flight. I said no, but I never would have known the option was available if I hadn't given them my phone number.

 

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Also, this isn't often discussed but OP's DD should REGISTER as a traveler with the State Dept. The US embassies in each country have a list of all US citizens KNOWN to be visiting or residing in that country, but they don't receive it from airlines or school programsï¼each traveler is responsible for doing that on her own. It's very simple, you let them know the dates you'll be in the country and once you get to the country update your registration with your in-country contact info. Then you never think about it again, unless there's a catastrophe. 24 hours after the Tohoku earthquake I received a call to my Japanese cell phone from the US embassy in Tokyo. They let me know that due to the nuclear disaster they had chartered enough planes to get the US citizens out of (x-mile radius of) the danger zone and back to the States, and offered me a flight. I said no, but I never would have known the option was available if I hadn't given them my phone number.

 

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Thank you! I would never have known this. Are you still in Japan?

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I googled THAAD+Japan and this was one of the things in the SERPs.  I agree with the author. The most  probable target for North Korea is Seoul, South Korea.

I believe your DD should practice her Japanese language skills and prepare to have a great time during the 6 weeks she is in Japan.

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/07/asia/north-korea-japan-us-ballistic-missile-defense/

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Also, this isn't often discussed but OP's DD should REGISTER as a traveler with the State Dept. The US embassies in each country have a list of all US citizens KNOWN to be visiting or residing in that country, but they don't receive it from airlines or school programsï¼each traveler is responsible for doing that on her own. It's very simple, you let them know the dates you'll be in the country and once you get to the country update your registration with your in-country contact info. Then you never think about it again, unless there's a catastrophe. 24 hours after the Tohoku earthquake I received a call to my Japanese cell phone from the US embassy in Tokyo. They let me know that due to the nuclear disaster they had chartered enough planes to get the US citizens out of (x-mile radius of) the danger zone and back to the States, and offered me a flight. I said no, but I never would have known the option was available if I hadn't given them my phone number.

 

Sent from my SCL23 using Tapatalk

 

+1  U.S. Citizens who are temporarily or permanently in another country should always register with the ACS (American Citizen Services unit) in the U.S. Embassy in the country/countries they are in. That can be done by registering on the web site of the U.S. Embassy involved, or, possibly on State.Gov

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I wouldn't worry about Japan, whatsoever. As someone who lived there and witnessed this firsthand, when bad stuff has gone down or is about to....you know it!

 

Japan IMO is a low probability. SK is an extremely high probability. For that reason, THAAD and many other resources are now in or near SK.  It is only 35 miles from the DMZ to Seoul.  We must not allow NK to get the capability to take out San Francisco or Los Angeles, among other  cities in the lower 48 states. Readiness of the U.S. Armed Forces at this time is very bad, but the U.S. would do a good job against NK, if NK attacks SK or Japan. 

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Based on the below distances, and many other factors, I believe the most likely target for NK is Seoul. I think the DD of the OP should go to Japan and enjoy her time there.

 

 

The flight distance from Pyongyang, North Korea to Tokyo, Japan is:

 

804 miles

 

 

The flight distance from Pyongyang, North Korea to Seoul, South Korea is:

 

121 miles

 

The flight distance from Pyongyang, North Korea to Andersen Air Force Base is:

 

2,107 miles

 

(That's our base on Guam)

 

The flight distance from Pyongyang, North Korea to Anchorage, Alaska is:

 

3,737 miles

 

The flight distance from Pyongyang, North Korea to Honolulu, Hawaii is:

 

4,601 miles

 

The flight distance from Pyongyang, North Korea to Seattle, Washington is:

 

5,152 miles

 

The flight distance from Pyongyang, North Korea to Washington, District of Columbia is:

 

6,879 miles

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