ChocolateReignRemix Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Huh, I really wasn't trying to come at this from any political agenda. As far as I can see, the two major parties blame each other for economics gone awry. And I am not trying to be an alarmist.....just want to be prudent. And there is no political agenda in my mentioning numbers or China.....they are realities that whoever gets into office will need to deal with. DH and I sat down after I started this thread and ran some numbers. I won't go into detail, but we still think buying a house makes sense for us in the long term, but downsizing a bit is in our plans. There is nothing wrong with being prudent - ever. When planning purchases/life decisions, I would recommend putting less weight on the possibility of a global recession (there will be one sooner or later) and consider more heavily your personal finances/employment situation and fallback plans for negative financial events. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DawnM Posted January 23, 2016 Author Share Posted January 23, 2016 There is nothing wrong with being prudent - ever. When planning purchases/life decisions, I would recommend putting less weight on the possibility of a global recession (there will be one sooner or later) and consider more heavily your personal finances/employment situation and fallback plans for negative financial events. Right. We are trying to see how "low" we will feel comfortable but still be able to weather any potential issues. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluegoat Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I am not sure what to think about the potential of another severe recession, but I am noticing particular outlooks on this thread that align with particular political beliefs. For me, that muddies the waters and makes it difficult to separate the politics from the economics. Generally speaking, the more conservative, the more pessimistic as this aligns with political position with regards to this president's perceived efficacy, no? It's also hard to tease out cause and effect in certain geographic regions. Areas that have been in decline for decades due to changes in industrial or agricultural patterns aren't going to recover magically under any political color if changes aren't made in the economic structure. You can't keep logging when there is no timber, just because that's what you have always done. Areas that have neglected infrastructure investment also face economically limiting factors. I think operating in a global economy is going to require that both companies and countries/states/counties become leaner and more adaptable. Hmm, I don't know. I'm fairly pessimistic, but I don't know that I would be considered a political conservative. Though people don't always mean the same thing by that word. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MSNative Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I am not sure what to think about the potential of another severe recession, but I am noticing particular outlooks on this thread that align with particular political beliefs. For me, that muddies the waters and makes it difficult to separate the politics from the economics. Generally speaking, the more conservative, the more pessimistic as this aligns with political position with regards to this president's perceived efficacy, no? It's also hard to tease out cause and effect in certain geographic regions. Areas that have been in decline for decades due to changes in industrial or agricultural patterns aren't going to recover magically under any political color if changes aren't made in the economic structure. You can't keep logging when there is no timber, just because that's what you have always done. Areas that have neglected infrastructure investment also face economically limiting factors. I think operating in a global economy is going to require that both companies and countries/states/counties become leaner and more adaptable. I think you are right. Political beliefs do definitely influence opinions in this. Certainly part of it is voters wanting to stand by the guy they voted for or against. Some people will refuse to acknowledge much negative about their side or positive about the other. But part of it is also philosophical. A Keynsian economist and a Hayekian economist will view the same data very differently regardless of who is in office. And yes I have to share one of my favorite economics videos. Ok there are only like four economica videos so it wasn't a tough competition but it's still a great video. My kids like it too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carrie12345 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Hmm, I don't know. I'm fairly pessimistic, but I don't know that I would be considered a political conservative. Though people don't always mean the same thing by that word. Yeah, I'm far left and low on every political quiz. Like, past Ghandi. But I do consider the possibilities of man made and natural disasters of various sorts and what I can do to withstand them. Not that I jump on predictions, I just figure something, at some point, is inevitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluegoat Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Yeah, I'm far left and low on every political quiz. Like, past Ghandi. But I do consider the possibilities of man made and natural disasters of various sorts and what I can do to withstand them. Not that I jump on predictions, I just figure something, at some point, is inevitable. It sounds like we're more or less in the same spot, I'm usually right around Ghandi as well. Though - I think trying to chart these things can be difficult - in truth I don't really identify with a left or right position, and the party I identify with tends to score centrist but actually has elements that are all over the place. In fact I have often notice that far left localist/communitarians have a lot more in common with an approach like Traditional Conservatism than it does with some of the more center left views, and the same is true on the right. The common approach of society as essentially communitarian and interdependent seems stronger than the left/right designations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prairiewindmomma Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I think another recession is coming. The markets are, by nature, cyclical. Two things concern me: 1. Quantitative easing occurred for so long during the last recession that there is no room to react to slackening demand. 2. The model of "market growth will continue forever" is faulty. China has moved from a production/construction economy to starting to build a service sector.....but there are few economies with a wide variety of resources that have yet to develop. At some point, the world will be saturated with goods and a disruptive cycle will begin as we sort out to a "new normal". Be modest in your expenditures. Save. Keep your skill set sharp. That's just good general life advice because I imagine volatility is just part of our economic lives (for the rest of our lives). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alicia64 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I thought we were still in a recession. At least it feels that way to me. I don't think the recession is over and I think it may get worse (insane debt etc.). Alley Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChocolateReignRemix Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I don't think the recession is over and I think it may get worse (insane debt etc.). Alley How are you defining a recession? By any real measure the last recession has been over for years. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alicia64 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 How are you defining a recession? By any real measure the last recession has been over for years. I think it's more complicated than restaurants are packed or empty in certain communities, but this article is good: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/071515/6-factors-point-global-recession-2016.asp Alley Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frances Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I think it's more complicated than restaurants are packed or empty in certain communities, but this article is good: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/071515/6-factors-point-global-recession-2016.asp Alley I don't think busy or empty restaurants is the measure she is talking about, rather actual defined economic measures. And the article you linked states in the first paragraph that a recovery has taken place. We may very well be heading into another recession, but by the standard definitions, the last recession has ended. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChocolateReignRemix Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I think it's more complicated than restaurants are packed or empty in certain communities, but this article is good: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/071515/6-factors-point-global-recession-2016.asp Alley There isn't anything I disagree with in the article, although I do think the author weights some concerns too heavily. There is nothing wrong with that as it is simply a matter of perspective. I do not know why you think that answers my question: why do you think the recession has not ended? The article you linked says quite clearly: "Since the stock market crashed in 2008, recovery has been long and slow, marked by persistent bumps in the road along the way. Nonetheless, an economic recovery has, indeed, taken place. The S&P 500 index has risen more than 92% over the past five years, and U.S. unemployment has dropped from nearly 10% at the height of the Great Recession to close to 5% today." 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChocolateReignRemix Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I really enjoyed this book. I listen to him daily( not his evening show), tho there are some things I don't actually agree on. As to your last statement, this is one of his biggest points. http://www.amazon.com/The-Crash-2016-Destroy-America/dp/0446584835 ETA-- he's got some corporate billionaires as the bogeymen,and he's not a fan of Reagan, so some of you may automatically be turned off. I listen to Hartmann from time to time, and while I agree with him to some degree, I didn't care for this book. He has also lost my respect for pushing gold as an investment on his show as a paid spokesman. Too Beck-esque for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmermom3 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Huh, I really wasn't trying to come at this from any political agenda. As far as I can see, the two major parties blame each other for economics gone awry. And I am not trying to be an alarmist.....just want to be prudent. And there is no political agenda in my mentioning numbers or China.....they are realities that whoever gets into office will need to deal with. DH and I sat down after I started this thread and ran some numbers. I won't go into detail, but we still think buying a house makes sense for us in the long term, but downsizing a bit is in our plans. Dawn, I think this thread is definitely worthwhile and was in no way disparaging your concerns. My observation was that outlook, for the most part, ran with party lines. I am serious about not being sure what to think. I do believe that the high roller days are of a bygone time and evaluating "prosperity" now against those standards is futile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 (edited) I am not sure what to think about the potential of another severe recession, but I am noticing particular outlooks on this thread that align with particular political beliefs. For me, that muddies the waters and makes it difficult to separate the politics from the economics. Generally speaking, the more conservative, the more pessimistic as this aligns with political position with regards to this president's perceived efficacy, no? It's also hard to tease out cause and effect in certain geographic regions. Areas that have been in decline for decades due to changes in industrial or agricultural patterns aren't going to recover magically under any political color if changes aren't made in the economic structure. You can't keep logging when there is no timber, just because that's what you have always done. Areas that have neglected infrastructure investment also face economically limiting factors. I think operating in a global economy is going to require that both companies and countries/states/counties become leaner and more adaptable. I agree with you on several points - especially the necessity of running leaner. It is overspending and a lack of durability and responsiveness to the changing global economy that gets us in so much trouble (us being w given country, it's not just North America). It's easy to blame this on politics and certainly ideological biased should be noted on both perspectives, but that is where longer term trends and comparisons are useful and that is where some of the scariest data actually is. Cutting through the news cycle and analysis to the data is precisely why we are so concerned, especially on a state level here. Federally I've just given up on any sensible economic policy for the time being. If the goal is job growth or durability of the economy so many choices in the last few years counter that, it's discouraging. Like I said, I'm looking forward to the shrinking of government here because they can't pay for all their obligations, let alone promises, when the real product they rely upon is depressed. You cannot spend your way out of a bad economy and this is true as a family, business, city, state, and yes, a country. It's not pessimism, it's the reality of the economic behavior of people and the responsibilities of managing a government one expects to actually remain standing. Edited January 23, 2016 by Arctic Mama Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChocolateReignRemix Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I liked it. I haven't heard him speak about gold on his afternoon program for a couple years. I do think he's gotten angrier over the past couple years. He seems more flustered. I think his wife has cancer; that may be one reason for the change. If he actually spoke about gold I may be less irritated with him, but he is doing commercials for one of those gold investment companies. Kind of sketchy and not what I expect from him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TranquilMind Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Incorrect. Well, I hope your rosy view is correct. We will see, in the next couple or few years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChocolateReignRemix Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 (edited) Well, I hope your rosy view is correct. We will see, in the next couple or few years. What? My comment had nothing to do with the future. You are incorrect that we haven't pulled out of the previous recession and that the growth in home sales has only been on the low end. Edited January 24, 2016 by ChocolateReignRemix 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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