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Upcoming recession?


DawnM
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I am reading articles on predications of a recession that will be "worse than 2008."

 

What do you all think?  Is that an alarmists' gloom and doom going off or is it going to get way worse?

 

If you think it will be bad, what preparations are you planning?   

 

It is giving me pause on selling and buying and what kind of house to buy when we move (or even if renting is a better option for a while..)

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I wouldn't be surprised.  I'm seeing a lot of post-seasonal sales at high end stores; prices have dropped so low that I was almost shocked.  I don't think people are buying much right now, but I think in general the trend is away from materialism, and that will definitely have an impact on sales and thus the economy.   I think the growth rates of the past won't ever happen again, and perhaps we have to adjust our expectations.

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Alarmist gloom and doom at this time. 2008 was an unusual event and the current headwinds we face in the U.S. and global economies is nothing like what we saw leading up to that debacle.

 

We are seeing a slowing of growth in emerging markets which will likely hurt corporate earnings for some multinationals in the the U.S. And Europe. Energy companies are also taking a beating at the moment due to production decisions by OPEC and decreasing global demand.

 

On the flip side, while we have seen some weakening in the manufacturing sector in the U.S., the job market has been consistently positive and lower energy prices should have a positive effect on consumer demand.

 

The likelihood of a recession now is higher than it was 8 months ago, but not much higher than it has been for the past 6 months.

 

A lot of prognosticators desperately want to be the next Dr. Nourel Roubini. While Dr. Roubini did accurately predict the 2008 collapse, he has also predicted a few that haven't occurred.

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I heard on NPR's Marketplace a few days ago that Wall Street types are calling for an upcoming recession (IMO hoping for a self-fulfilling prophecy to drive things down and buy low, maybe?), but economists have no such concerns.  I wouldn't gamble money in stocks that I couldn't afford to lose, and I trust economists more than Wall Street types, so there you have it.

 

ETA: I wouldn't trust a single person with a political agenda trying to get me to vote one way or the other out of fear of a recession.  But I do have my own thoughts on how certain political agendas drive economic policy, for better or worse.

Edited by Amy in NH
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We are seeing construction here, both residential and commercial.

Also first time in over 20 years that some of the main street landlords have put a dime into their properties and actually painted.

 

well, we are seeing that here too.  Housing projects and building projects that were abandoned in 2008 are now being built and thriving/selling.

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Locally there are still plenty of vacated retail space that has not been filled by new tenants. Some tech companies have freeze hiring and there are layoffs happening (Yahoo, GoPro). Someone who is graduating has her job offer cancelled because the whole project was terminated so she is job hunting again.

 

Globally China markets are soft and locally we see less China tour busses at the premium outlets on weekends when we do a pit stop there.

 

Hubby's employer (tech) is doing okay but not fantastic. Personally we just do what we have always done, be careful with expenses and build up emergency funds. The previous recession some friends in tech were out of job for almost a year. So we are watching local trends and tech industry trends.

 

ETA:

Mortgage rates and rents are up. The news said my region's rent went up 10% last year. The local banks have adjusted board rates for mortgages.

Edited by Arcadia
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I was just reading our local newspaper online and the number of jobs being lost in our area is very concerning. One company is closing and 98 employees are losing jobs, another company cut 1,000 positions, three restaurants in the area are closing, and on and on. Lots of expected commercial building projects have been on hold long term and we aren't seeing much residential building at all. Our area never recovered well from the 2008 recession and the loss of any jobs in this area is bad news.

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I think we may have read the same article. I just cannot even think of another recession. Sometimes dh jokes we should just buy a trailer and sell everything that does not fit in the trailer and hit the road. :)

US manufacturing is concerning me as is the outsourcing and the ever mounting debt.

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Our local area is still doing well, but OTOH, our area seems to miss many of the recessions as we have a more solid base.  We didn't miss 2008 though.

 

Usually I can tell when there's going to be a softening coming up by hubby's workload.  It's also usually slow in the winter.  This year he's still backlogged with jobs.

 

Restaurants are still quite full - if they are any good.  Stores might be seeing fewer customers, but I think that's due to online shopping more than fewer shoppers.  Grocery stores seem to still be going strong - as does our local market.

 

If there's a recession coming, I'm thinking it might be a regional one hitting more of the not-so-solid areas.

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We are seeing restaurants that dont understand that people dont want frozen salty reheated food at high prices. Chinese is doing well. Diners vary. Hole-in-the walls have closed.....to be replaced by upscale intimate places for the well heeled tourist. I miss our breakfast hole in the wall....looked like it did in 1950, counter, stools, booths, cook and reasonable prices, but the owner was driven out by the massive increase in rent, which was a passing along of the tax burden.

 

Our hole in the wall places are still doing very well.  They don't reheat things though.  They make their own (usually).  We have a couple of favorites.  We don't go there when we want to eat healthy fixins.  That's what eating at home is for!

 

As mentioned earlier, our area tends to miss most recessions, so there could be one out there elsewhere.

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I live in an oil town, need I say more.  We weathered the last recession pretty well around here, but this one is brutal for our local economy.

 

Our area has a huge segment that is associated with food - growing, processing, selling - and it includes both healthier choices and snack foods.  People rarely quit eating...  Even the snack food employees aren't really worried about the newer health craze.  They tell me Jan is slower - right after New Year's Resolutions et al - but as soon as the Playoffs start, all is well again.  ;)

 

We have other businesses/manufacturing too, but I firmly believe it's the food deals that keep our area quite strong.

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In our state there are more jobs than ever, lots of construction, and everyone is feeling very optimistic.  

 

 

Yeah, that is how it was in 2007.  And then the number of unfinished housing developments and building developments in 2008 was crazy.

 

They are building again.....and building LOTS, but that doesn't really solidify the argument for me.

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I thought we were still in a recession. At least it feels that way to me.

 

A couple of old sayings I heard in different econ classes:

 

Definition of a recession: when your neighbor doesn't have a job.

 

Definition of a depression: when you don't have a job.

 

I also like:

A recession is when you need to tight your belt.

A depression is when you don't have a belt to tighten.

A panic is when you don't need a belt because you no longer have pants.

 

As a whole we have moved past the recession stage and did some time ago, but it has been a soft recovery and certain areas of the country can be excused for feeling the recovery has passed them by.  What we are heading into is similar, as some sectors (energy, certain export industries) will feel like a recession (or worse), while other parts of the country and world will (likely) only experience a slowdown.

Edited by ChocolateReignRemix
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A couple of old sayings I heard in different econ classes:

 

Definition of a recession: when your neighbor doesn't have a job.

 

Definition of a depression: when you don't have a job.

 

 

My father used to say this. I remember him saying it to me when I lost my job during the first Bush presidency.

 

I know they say we have moved out of the recession but it sure doesn't feel like it where I live.

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I'm jumpy.

 

In the Roaring 80s, when everything was hopping, there was a regional recession in Denver based on oil prices falling through the floor.

 

Houses that a year before had listed at $250k were not selling at $125K. Condos that had sold st $45K were selling in foreclosure at $17K. We didn't sell our real estate at break-even for 8 years.

 

It was a regional recession so not many people noticed. But we did. In the Milken 80s, we both had MBAs and could not get jobs. We moved to fine employment and did well.

 

But this time, oil is much lower than it was then, and it is affecting an area much broader than s region.

 

So yes, I am jumpy.

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Another point of jump ones: Google Schlumberger. An oil-economy-based leading bubble. 10,000 jobs lost and a bubble popped.

 

Schlumberger used to be a rock solid investment.

 

It's not Fire fire sell sell but it is evidence of impact of low oil prices. Schlumberger is blue-chip and will be OK but companies which do the same thing with less ballast of management or resources...not so much.

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I thought we were still in a recession. At least it feels that way to me.

Word. Looking at the adjusted reports instead of the headlines we never really pulled out of the last one. It leveled off and bounced around a bit but recovery never really happened. This is especially true when you look at the number of people excluded from the unemployment numbers because they just stopped looking for jobs altogether and gave up.

 

Our state is hurting big time because of the oil issues. We as a family will be just fine and I'm actually looking forward to the state HAVING to shrink itself because it can't do anything else. It's good long term to cut some of the frivolity and waste on their end, but in the meantime real people are really hurting and adding taxes to them to cover shortfalls isn't going to help. The only reason we are safe is because my husband is employed in a field that is required whether oil is booming or busting and his skillset is always needed here and elsewhere.

 

We are better positioned than most our friends and my heart hurts for them :(

Edited by Arctic Mama
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Word. Looking at the adjusted reports instead of the headlines we never really pulled out of the last one. It leveled off and bounced around a bit but recovery never really happened. This is especially true when you look at the number of people excluded from the unemployment numbers because they just stopped looking for jobs altogether and gave up.

 

Our state is hurting big time because of the oil issues. We as a family will be just fine and I'm actually looking forward to the state HAVING to shrink itself because it can't do anything else. It's good long term to cut some of the frivolity and waste on their end, but in the meantime real people are really hurting and adding taxes to them to cover shortfalls isn't going to help. The only reason we are safe is because my husband is employed in a field that is required whether oil is booming or busting and his skillset is always needed here and elsewhere.

 

We are better positioned than most our friends and my heart hurts for them :(

 

Dh is out of work and so are lots of our friends.  We are in a pretty good position and can weather it for a good while.  Some of our friends are not.

 

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There's a LOT of commercial building going on over here, while existing commercial stands empty.  Lots of road work, b/c we decided to use all grant money in one big swoop. (So much fun for driving absolutely anywhere @@.)

 

We've maintained a pretty low unemployment rate, but overall income is far from ideal, and a lot of (most?) jobs aren't local. Our population continues to shrink and schools continue to face closures.

 

My property value has not recovered from 2008. I'm still looking at a 60% depreciation.

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Word. Looking at the adjusted reports instead of the headlines we never really pulled out of the last one. It leveled off and bounced around a bit but recovery never really happened. This is especially true when you look at the number of people excluded from the unemployment numbers because they just stopped looking for jobs altogether and gave up.

 

Our state is hurting big time because of the oil issues. We as a family will be just fine and I'm actually looking forward to the state HAVING to shrink itself because it can't do anything else. It's good long term to cut some of the frivolity and waste on their end, but in the meantime real people are really hurting and adding taxes to them to cover shortfalls isn't going to help. The only reason we are safe is because my husband is employed in a field that is required whether oil is booming or busting and his skillset is always needed here and elsewhere.

 

We are better positioned than most our friends and my heart hurts for them :(

Labor force participation rates were already declining prior to 2008. Even accounting for declining participation (not all of which is due to workers opting to leave the job market due to long term unemployment), there certainly has been a significant economic recovery nationally and globally in the past 7 years.

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There's a LOT of commercial building going on over here, while existing commercial stands empty.  Lots of road work, b/c we decided to use all grant money in one big swoop. (So much fun for driving absolutely anywhere @@.)

 

We've maintained a pretty low unemployment rate, but overall income is far from ideal, and a lot of (most?) jobs aren't local. Our population continues to shrink and schools continue to face closures.

 

My property value has not recovered from 2008. I'm still looking at a 60% depreciation.

 

Whoah!  what year did you buy?

 

We are selling our house this Spring/Summer and I am hoping we can get some gain.  I am quite sure we won't lose, but not sure about a gain.  It should, since what we are looking to move TO has gained an it is in the general area.

 

Dawn

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There's a LOT of commercial building going on over here, while existing commercial stands empty.  Lots of road work, b/c we decided to use all grant money in one big swoop. (So much fun for driving absolutely anywhere @@.)

 

We've maintained a pretty low unemployment rate, but overall income is far from ideal, and a lot of (most?) jobs aren't local. Our population continues to shrink and schools continue to face closures.

 

My property value has not recovered from 2008. I'm still looking at a 60% depreciation.

I am not quite that bad, but I purchased in 2008 (August, beginning of September) and according to Zillow, my house is worth less then we owe on it... still. :(

 

I know realistically that where we purchased will be great long term. But economics in this area are not for job growth, regardless of what letter is behind the governors name (R or D). 

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Whoah!  what year did you buy?

 

We are selling our house this Spring/Summer and I am hoping we can get some gain.  I am quite sure we won't lose, but not sure about a gain.  It should, since what we are looking to move TO has gained an it is in the general area.

 

Dawn

 

2005.  :crying:

 

It was a complete and total shock for me.  I had been watching prices in this region for several years, watching them inch up ever so slowly, and noticed a slight dip.  With 3 kids in a 2 bedroom apartment, I was positive it was the perfect time to jump in.  I was so proud of the deal we got, and the reasonable fixed interest rate!

 

We ran the numbers for HARP over and over again, but even that's worthless to us in the long run.  And it definitely looks like we're in for the long run!

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Due to the size of this country and the evolution/movement of industry, there are regular local or industry based recessions that may not make it on the general population's radar.  I think that is why one family may look at their community and say "Things are tough" while another says "We're on a roll!"  Of course, those with long ties to their community will remember the boom and bust (say of oil in Texas or Oklahoma). 

 

In my state, construction was hit hard by the last recession. Building is back though.  There are temporary jobs attached to construction but many communities that have become retirement havens, for example, have weird local economies. There are stock brokers and doctors servicing the retirees as well as young people who cannot find jobs with good benefits (restaurant workers for example).  So I look around and know that cash is flowing but young people face a dilemma.  Housing is expensive and entree level jobs are either non-existent or part time at best. 

 

I opened my first retirement account before Black Monday of 1987.  My investments rise and fall on paper and I tend to shrug my shoulders.  The lesson is not to put everything in one basket whether that is stocks, real estate, or passbook savings.  And don't watch the financial windbags on television.

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Jane,

 

Yes and what I was reading was about a GLOBAL recession, not anything regional.  I am far more concerned about what is going on globally as it will affect all of us.

 

My area is doing ok right now.  But that won't mean it won't be hit by our 5 trillion dollar debt at some point.

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Jane,

http://forums.welltrainedmind.com/index.php?app=forums&module=post&section=post&do=reply_post&f=31&t=584876&qpid=6798015

Yes and what I was reading was about a GLOBAL recession, not anything regional.  I am far more concerned about what is going on globally as it will affect all of us.

 

My area is doing ok right now.  But that won't mean it won't be hit by our 5 trillion dollar debt at some point.

 

Hey I am reading some of the same stuff concerning the Chinese economy and how the falling price of oil adversely affects some (while putting more dollars in American consumers' pockets).  Do you remember reading just a couple of years ago (maybe '13?) about a global recession because of Germany and the European austerity programs?  That one did not seem to happen.

 

I guess I feel that recessions are inevitable but prognosticators are not always correct.  Hence we live below our means and try to invest wisely and broadly. Recession or not, I don't know how else to react.

 

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My 20 year old son is working FOUR jobs and can barely pay his expenses. Most people think he's lucky to have four part time minimum wage jobs. My area has never recovered from the recession and my husband has been severely unemployed for years despite two college degrees and years of experience. Another recession will really hurt people in my area.

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Florida was hit hard in 2008, especially with housing. There was a huge housing bubble here that burst. Both existing home sales and construction of new homes felt it. My mom died in 2008, and we ended up having to practically give her house away. It took nearly a year to sell.

 

Housing sales have improved, but jobs in my area are still hard to find. There are a lot of unemployed engineers around here. When the space shuttle program ended (as it should have - it was outdated), a lot of highly educated people were laid off. Fortunately dh works where they launch unmanned rockets so we were okay, but our city was hard hit. 

 

My 18yo is having a hard time finding a part time job.

 

From what I'm reading, the doom and gloom predictions are just that - doom and gloom predictions. It does not look like a repeat of 2008.

Edited by Lady Florida
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Hey I am reading some of the same stuff concerning the Chinese economy and how the falling price of oil adversely affects some (while putting more dollars in American consumers' pockets).  Do you remember reading just a couple of years ago (maybe '13?) about a global recession because of Germany and the European austerity programs?  That one did not seem to happen.

 

I guess I feel that recessions are inevitable but prognosticators are not always correct.  Hence we live below our means and try to invest wisely and broadly. Recession or not, I don't know how else to react.

 

 

I think the difference is that we now owe WAY more than we did.

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2015/04/24/national-debt-tops-18-trillion-guess-how-much-you-owe/#53e907ec5ebd

 

2004 was 1/3 of what we will owe in 2019.  Currently we owe $18 Trillion.

 

So there is certainly ebb and flow, but how do we flow back to owing $6 trillion without drastic change?

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Yes and what I was reading was about a GLOBAL recession, not anything regional.  I am far more concerned about what is going on globally as it will affect all of us.

 

My area is doing ok right now.  But that won't mean it won't be hit by our 5 trillion dollar debt at some point.

 

This I actually agree with.  Globally things are concerning with all the issues out there.

 

Locally, I think we're still in a "win" area as housing is mostly up (but not totally up to pre 2008 prices), sales are up, unemployment is down, and the economy is trucking away.  People tend to move to areas with better economies.  This area is one of them - for now.  Who knows what will happen if global deals hit, but still... people turn to comfort foods and eating more "in" when the economy is down.  Both of those help our area based upon industries here.

 

If the world economy tanks - all bets are off and I'm glad we live where we can be somewhat self sustaining with our land, critters, and neighbors.  We're not self-centered.  Those of you living around us would be welcome to come help in exchange for some of the produced bounty if it ever came to that.  I'm hoping it doesn't... I'm fully willing to meet in person with less "need" for it!

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I think the difference is that we now owe WAY more than we did.

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2015/04/24/national-debt-tops-18-trillion-guess-how-much-you-owe/#53e907ec5ebd

 

2004 was 1/3 of what we will owe in 2019.  Currently we owe $18 Trillion.

 

So there is certainly ebb and flow, but how do we flow back to owing $6 trillion without drastic change?

 

No answers from me but I have heard more comment that it is the slow down of the Chinese economy that will lead to a global recession as opposed to US debt.

 

In your OP you asked how boardies are preparing hence my response that we live below our means and try to invest wisely and broadly.  When I was an undergrad my region of the country was in recession.  My husband lost a job in the early '90's recession, what I call the tech recession since he and two of our techie friends were out of work for a bit.  To me recession is inevitable.  I just cannot predict the length, the depth, the pain. 

 

Being prudent with our money is the best that any of us can do.

 

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I think it's inevitable, though whether it is immanent I don't know.  The the underlying problems and contradictions that caused the last recession haven't been addressed in any significant way, and the contradictions inherent in economists worldview are essentially based on the same kinds of contradictions.

 

Of course it would be possible to do these things, but if the 2008 crash wasn't enough to propel people in that direction, I don't see it happening now.

 

I think some of the good economic activity we see now is a bit of an illusion.  Some of it comes from economic stimulus money.  Oil going down is good for things like manufacturing, but that is a human phenomena not one that changes the fundamental energy problems, or the issues with natural resources.  We're still facing huge challenges with things like rising sea levels in vulnerable nations, wars over resources causing mass movements of people, and general instability in our economy and the natural resources we depend upon.

 

People who talk about actions, substantial actions, to deal with these things are ridiculed as crack-pots or idealists by those who have a vested interest in avoiding change.  Which is, I think, almost everyone - a system that depends of us consuming as much as possible appeals to our basest instincts.

 

 

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Word. Looking at the adjusted reports instead of the headlines we never really pulled out of the last one. It leveled off and bounced around a bit but recovery never really happened. This is especially true when you look at the number of people excluded from the unemployment numbers because they just stopped looking for jobs altogether and gave up.

 

Our state is hurting big time because of the oil issues. We as a family will be just fine and I'm actually looking forward to the state HAVING to shrink itself because it can't do anything else. It's good long term to cut some of the frivolity and waste on their end, but in the meantime real people are really hurting and adding taxes to them to cover shortfalls isn't going to help. The only reason we are safe is because my husband is employed in a field that is required whether oil is booming or busting and his skillset is always needed here and elsewhere.

 

We are better positioned than most our friends and my heart hurts for them :(

.

 

 

This. We never pulled out of the last recession. It was all posturing and creative accounting.

 

People are buying lower/mid end houses again. It looks pretty shaky though.

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No answers from me but I have heard more comment that it is the slow down of the Chinese economy that will lead to a global recession as opposed to US debt.

 

In your OP you asked how boardies are preparing hence my response that we live below our means and try to invest wisely and broadly.  When I was an undergrad my region of the country was in recession.  My husband lost a job in the early '90's recession, what I call the tech recession since he and two of our techie friends were out of work for a bit.  To me recession is inevitable.  I just cannot predict the length, the depth, the pain. 

 

Being prudent with our money is the best that any of us can do.

 

 

 

I have always felt like we lived below our means in terms of savings and not buying too much.  But I feel like we need to be even better.

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I think the difference is that we now owe WAY more than we did.

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2015/04/24/national-debt-tops-18-trillion-guess-how-much-you-owe/#53e907ec5ebd

 

2004 was 1/3 of what we will owe in 2019.  Currently we owe $18 Trillion.

 

So there is certainly ebb and flow, but how do we flow back to owing $6 trillion without drastic change?

 

I'm far from an economist, but I don't think what's going on in recent weeks has anything (or at least very, very little) to do with our national debt.  It's far more due to the Chinese economy and the oil situation.  Noteworthy so far today -- oil stocks are up due to the winter storm (which will probably at least temporarily create greater demand for heating oil).  And with oil stocks go the whole market (DOW is currently up 171 points, NASDAQ is up 100).

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.

 

 

This. We never pulled out of the last recession. It was all posturing and creative accounting.

 

People are buying lower/mid end houses again. It looks pretty shaky though.

 

Perhaps true elsewhere - not true here.  I check housing sales weekly as they're listed in our paper.  Some pretty pricey places (for around here) are selling.  

 

Note:  Pricey around here is 200K+  We are not in a high COL area.  Some who buy these pricey houses for our area are from HCOL areas that they've gotten tired of living in.

 

It's probably another reason our area is doing rather well at the moment.

 

It goes along with the idea that some areas are doing better than others.  I believe this has always been true TBH.

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Just an FYI, but every year you don't have a recession increases the likelihood of a recession in future years.  Typical recessions are a natural, albeit unwelcome, part of our economic system.  What we experienced in 2008 was well, well beyond a typical recession.

 

While there are significant headwinds facing the world economy (China, depressed oil prices which will adversely some nations dramatically), there are also areas of growth and decreased energy prices should help alleviate weaknesses in other areas.  Last week the IMF was projecting a global growth rate of 3.4% for 2016, which seems reasonable for what we know now.

 

Truthfully the biggest worry at the moment is that China is in worse shape than they are letting on, which I think is a valid concern.

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I'm far from an economist, but I don't think what's going on in recent weeks has anything (or at least very, very little) to do with our national debt.  It's far more due to the Chinese economy and the oil situation.  Noteworthy so far today -- oil stocks are up due to the winter storm (which will probably at least temporarily create greater demand for heating oil).  And with oil stocks go the whole market (DOW is currently up 171 points, NASDAQ is up 100).

 

Correct.  The US debt situation comes into play if something as traumatic as 2008 happens again, as we have less room to stimulate the economy from the government side.  As things stand now, the ability to purchase US debt is considered a blessing by many traders wanting to park cash safely for the moment.

 

There is a debt issue related to oil affecting the equity and bond markets, but it involves oil companies who are heavily leveraged facing cash flow issues, which could lead to some market gyrations in the coming months.  If oil stabilizes/moves back up (regaining and holding at $40+/barrel would be huge) then that concern diminishes quickly.

 

Edited by ChocolateReignRemix
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.

 

 

This. We never pulled out of the last recession. It was all posturing and creative accounting.

 

People are buying lower/mid end houses again. It looks pretty shaky though.

The first graph in this article gives a good picture of why this recovery didn't feel like a recovery to most people. Incomes went down and in most percentiles they haven't come back up. And prices for most consumer items have gone up since 2008 so most people still feel like we are in a recession.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/census-data-poverty-income_us_55f981d5e4b0e333e54c00ea

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I am not sure what to think about the potential of another severe recession, but I am noticing particular outlooks on this thread that align with particular political beliefs.  For me, that muddies the waters and makes it difficult to separate the politics from the economics.  Generally speaking, the more conservative, the more pessimistic as this aligns with political position with regards to this president's perceived efficacy, no?

 

It's also hard to tease out cause and effect in certain geographic regions. Areas that have been in decline for decades due to changes in industrial or agricultural patterns aren't going to recover magically under any political color if changes aren't made in the economic structure. You can't keep logging when there is no timber, just because that's what you have always done.

 

Areas that have neglected infrastructure investment also face economically limiting factors.  I think operating in a global economy is going to require that both companies and countries/states/counties become leaner and more adaptable.

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I am not sure what to think about the potential of another severe recession, but I am noticing particular outlooks on this thread that align with particular political beliefs. For me, that muddies the waters and makes it difficult to separate the politics from the economics. Generally speaking, the more conservative, the more pessimistic as this aligns with political position with regards to this president's perceived efficacy, no?

 

It's also hard to tease out cause and effect in certain geographic regions. Areas that have been in decline for decades due to changes in industrial or agricultural patterns aren't going to recover magically under any political color if changes aren't made in the economic structure. You can't keep logging when there is no timber, just because that's what you have always done.

 

Areas that have neglected infrastructure investment also face economically limiting factors. I think operating in a global economy is going to require that both companies and countries/states/counties become leaner and more adaptable.

I cannot like this enough.

 

I also think that areas which depend on a single industry, be it oil or manufacturing or agriculture or banking or even tourism, feel slight changes in either direction more acutely than areas with diversified industries.

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I cannot like this enough.

 

I also think that areas which depend on a single industry, be it oil or manufacturing or agriculture or banking or even tourism, feel slight changes in either direction more acutely than areas with diversified industries.

This!! is why we were totally devasted in Florida in 2008. Our business was land development in a tourist area. Double whammy!

 

Hubby has made a 180 career change trying to find something with more economic insulation. So far, so good.

Edited by purplejackmama
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I am not sure what to think about the potential of another severe recession, but I am noticing particular outlooks on this thread that align with particular political beliefs.  For me, that muddies the waters and makes it difficult to separate the politics from the economics.  Generally speaking, the more conservative, the more pessimistic as this aligns with political position with regards to this president's perceived efficacy, no?

 

It's also hard to tease out cause and effect in certain geographic regions. Areas that have been in decline for decades due to changes in industrial or agricultural patterns aren't going to recover magically under any political color if changes aren't made in the economic structure. You can't keep logging when there is no timber, just because that's what you have always done.

 

Areas that have neglected infrastructure investment also face economically limiting factors.  I think operating in a global economy is going to require that both companies and countries/states/counties become leaner and more adaptable.

 

Huh, I really wasn't trying to come at this from any political agenda.  As far as I can see, the two major parties blame each other for economics gone awry.  

 

And I am not trying to be an alarmist.....just want to be prudent.  And there is no political agenda in my mentioning numbers or China.....they are realities that whoever gets into office will need to deal with.

 

DH and I sat down after I started this thread and ran some numbers.   I won't go into detail, but we still think buying a house makes sense for us in the long term, but downsizing a bit is in our plans.

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I am not sure what to think about the potential of another severe recession, but I am noticing particular outlooks on this thread that align with particular political beliefs.  For me, that muddies the waters and makes it difficult to separate the politics from the economics.  Generally speaking, the more conservative, the more pessimistic as this aligns with political position with regards to this president's perceived efficacy, no?

 

It's also hard to tease out cause and effect in certain geographic regions. Areas that have been in decline for decades due to changes in industrial or agricultural patterns aren't going to recover magically under any political color if changes aren't made in the economic structure. You can't keep logging when there is no timber, just because that's what you have always done.

 

Areas that have neglected infrastructure investment also face economically limiting factors.  I think operating in a global economy is going to require that both companies and countries/states/counties become leaner and more adaptable.

 

That is true for individuals but tends to be less true when you get opinions from market professionals.  There is still some overlap as the professionals often arrive at the same conclusion but take very different paths to get there.

 

One of the issues that tends to differentiate market pros more is where the stand on the current Fed monetary policy.  The doom and gloomers tend to overstate the impact of the Fed raising rates, while the pollyannas tend to diminish the negative news in the markets right now.

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