Do you ever think the economy will recover?

[delaney]

With upcoming election I just keep wondering if the outcome will really effect the economy all that much, or is this just a storm we have to weather? Can we fix this mess?:confused:

[amy g.]

I can only hope.

[Anne in CA]

It is so hard to know. I don't think any of the people we have on the ballot can fix it, but maybe it is possible for us as Americans to learn new habits, take charge of what is within our control and fix it without them. That is my hope.

[FairyMom]

It's way, way too complex to be fixed with the election either way. Although, I offer a different view... what if we were living in a false prosperity created by inflated numbers and worth along with over-inflated home prices and massive amounts of unsecured/unworthy credit flooding the market? I think we are living in reality now and the past economy of the 90s was an illusion of sorts. That's just my humble opinion, though. :)

[justamouse]

The business owners we know are holding their collective breath (and wallets) until Nov.

 

If the right person wins, the wallets will open.

 

This is ALL we talk about.

 

If not, we are going to have to get out with our skin on.

Edited August 28, 2012 by justamouse

[Audrey]

It's way, way too complex to be fixed with the election either way. Although, I offer a different view... what if we were living in a false prosperity created by inflated numbers and worth along with over-inflated home prices and massive amounts of unsecured/unworthy credit flooding the market? I think we are living in reality now and the past economy of the 90s was an illusion of sorts. That's just my humble opinion, though. :)

:iagree: with your opinion.

[LittleIzumi]

It was built on imaginary money. It can't go back to the previous level.

[BakersDozen]

It was built on imaginary money. It can't go back to the previous level.

 

:iagree: and I think there is still a bit of readjusting left for this country.

[Element]

It was built on imaginary money. It can't go back to the previous level.

 

:iagree: Yeah, this is how I feel too.

[Night Elf]

DH says the economy has always been a cycle of ups and downs. We'll pull through this. Some areas are doing well and some are still lagging. Our area, for example, is definitely showing an improvement. We went about 3 years without seeing any new construction. Half built neighborhoods stayed that way. Now, there is new construction all around us and we're seeing new businesses open in the new buildings. Neighborhoods are being completed and people are buying. I'm sure we're not all back to the way we were but our area is definitely improving.

 

I imagine people during the depression were asking the same questions.

[FairyMom]

The business owners we know are holding their collective breath (and wallets) until Nov.

 

If the right person wins, the wallets will open.

 

This is ALL we talk about.

 

If not, we are going to have to get out with our skin on.

 

As a business owner with my husband and my mom (separate small businesses) I respectfully disagree. :D I do love you, though, justamouse. :grouphug:

[jennynd]

I think it starts picking up. I live in a new neighborhood. We have easily 15-20 houses built this past Year. At work, the order also seems picking up, both Hubby and I got really busy these past few months

[Mergath]

It's way, way too complex to be fixed with the election either way. Although, I offer a different view... what if we were living in a false prosperity created by inflated numbers and worth along with over-inflated home prices and massive amounts of unsecured/unworthy credit flooding the market? I think we are living in reality now and the past economy of the 90s was an illusion of sorts. That's just my humble opinion, though. :)

 

:iagree:These are my thoughts, too. I do think things will improve, but no way are they going to return to the previous peak. As someone else said, that was built on imaginary money. And there are so many other factors, too. If the changes we've been seeing in the weather over the last couple years are permanent due to climate change, that could change all kinds of stuff.

[Luckymama]

The economy is recovering nicely here.

[Audrey]

It was built on imaginary money. It can't go back to the previous level.

 

 

:iagree:with this, too. It ties into Cindie's theory of false economy.

[Sneezyone]

:iagree:These are my thoughts, too. I do think things will improve, but no way are they going to return to the previous peak. As someone else said, that was built on imaginary money. And there are so many other factors, too. If the changes we've been seeing in the weather over the last couple years are permanent due to climate change, that could change all kinds of stuff.

 

I agree. All that home equity wealth, like the tech bubble before it, was based on nothing but speculation. It'll take a while to see a fundamental reset of behaviors and attitides but it's happening. We experienced the roaring millenium, now we're reaping the great recession. History is repeating itself.

[Stacy in NJ]

This is not the new normal.

 

We do need some fundamental changes though. We're going through a period of adjustment and it's going to get worse before it gets better. It will get better, though.

[kalanamak]

Yes.

[kalanamak]

 

If the right person wins, the wallets will open.

 

 

If this is so, it is because people far overestimate the power of the president over the economy.

[catz]

It's way, way too complex to be fixed with the election either way. Although, I offer a different view... what if we were living in a false prosperity created by inflated numbers and worth along with over-inflated home prices and massive amounts of unsecured/unworthy credit flooding the market? I think we are living in reality now and the past economy of the 90s was an illusion of sorts. That's just my humble opinion, though. :)

 

:iagree:totally with your humble opinion. Like the last election, I don't think the current election is going to make or break the current economic state.

[brehon]

If this is so, it is because people far overestimate the power of the president over the economy.

 

I have to wholeheartedly agree here.

[Mrs Mungo]

Yes.

 

If this is so, it is because people far overestimate the power of the president over the economy.

 

I agree on both counts.

[In the Rain]

It's way, way too complex to be fixed with the election either way. Although, I offer a different view... what if we were living in a false prosperity created by inflated numbers and worth along with over-inflated home prices and massive amounts of unsecured/unworthy credit flooding the market? I think we are living in reality now and the past economy of the 90s was an illusion of sorts. That's just my humble opinion, though. :)

 

:iagree:

[Bluegoat]

It's way, way too complex to be fixed with the election either way. Although, I offer a different view... what if we were living in a false prosperity created by inflated numbers and worth along with over-inflated home prices and massive amounts of unsecured/unworthy credit flooding the market? I think we are living in reality now and the past economy of the 90s was an illusion of sorts. That's just my humble opinion, though. :)

:iagree:

 

Electing one guy or the other is not going to make much difference. I would be very surprised if they did really different things anyway, when it came down to actually making decisions.

[Amy in NH]

It's way, way too complex to be fixed with the election either way. Although, I offer a different view... what if we were living in a false prosperity created by inflated numbers and worth along with over-inflated home prices and massive amounts of unsecured/unworthy credit flooding the market? I think we are living in reality now and the past economy of the 90s was an illusion of sorts. That's just my humble opinion, though. :)

 

:iagree: It was a house of cards.

[Bluegoat]

:iagree: It was a house of cards.

Although, I am not sure that the people who make the decisions accept that. If think things back to the same old approach again for some time, maybe quite successfully. But it isn't sustainable.

[Katy]

Eventually, but it might take another 10 years.

[Lisbeth]

Not unless we are willing to take some hard medicine now, and not unless the majority readjusts back to a personal responsibility orientation. Gimmee gimmee will get us to Greece, sooner or later.

[QueenCat]

DH says the economy has always been a cycle of ups and downs. We'll pull through this. Some areas are doing well and some are still lagging. Our area, for example, is definitely showing an improvement. We went about 3 years without seeing any new construction. Half built neighborhoods stayed that way. Now, there is new construction all around us and we're seeing new businesses open in the new buildings. Neighborhoods are being completed and people are buying. I'm sure we're not all back to the way we were but our area is definitely improving.

 

I imagine people during the depression were asking the same questions.

 

:iagree:From everything I've read and listened to, studied, things have been improving for at least a year now. Slow and steady....

[elegantlion]

Yes, I think it will recover. There will be a different normal in housing, consumerism, and what being wealthy means. I'm not sure that's a bad thing, but it bites to be caught in the adjustment period. Just my opinion.

 

I think my son's generation (whatever that's called) will have to make wiser economic choices for their future. It's not like the 80s when they were handing you credit cards in the mail at age 18, 19, or 20. I had those, it was ridiculous the amount of credit I could get with a job that paid just above minimum wage.

[Pawz4me]

The business owners we know are holding their collective breath (and wallets) until Nov.

 

If the right person wins, the wallets will open.

 

This is ALL we talk about.

 

If not, we are going to have to get out with our skin on.

 

My DH's employer, the sole owner of a large (400+ employees) and very profitable "small" business, would vehemently disagree with you.

 

However, I tend to agree with those who think people over-estimate the power of any president (or Congress) to fix things. I tend to think people are adjusting more and more to a new normal and that things are already improving.

[DawnM]

:iagree: with you.

 

My DH's employer, the sole owner of a large (400+ employees) and very profitable "small" business, would vehemently disagree with you.

 

However, I tend to agree with those who think people over-estimate the power of any president (or Congress) to fix things. I tend to think people are adjusting more and more to a new normal and that things are already improving.

[Parrothead]

:iagree:totally with your humble opinion. Like the last election, I don't think the current election is going to make or break the current economic state.

:iagree: Neither person in the pot is strong enough to single-handedly pull us out of the quagmire we are in.

[Parrothead]

My DH's employer, the sole owner of a large (400+ employees) and very profitable "small" business, would vehemently disagree with you.

 

However, I tend to agree with those who think people over-estimate the power of any president (or Congress) to fix things. I tend to think people are adjusting more and more to a new normal and that things are already improving.

Personally I think the politicians are still too busy playing the blame game. No one there has a workable solution. Which is just as well because the only thing that will fix this is time and freedom for the system to fix itself. That is what is being done in small pockets of the country.

[Margaret in GA]

:iagree:From everything I've read and listened to, studied, things have been improving for at least a year now. Slow and steady....

 

 

Same here. We are seeing new construction. People are buying cars again. Businesses filling in the holes of strip malls that sat empty for 4 years. I do think things will pick up after the election, not because any president has the power to change the economy overnight. Rather, because people foolishly believe they do and hold on to their wallets just before an election. Most retailers will tell you that election years are always tough because of this false perception. :glare:

 

Margaret

[....]

DH says the economy has always been a cycle of ups and downs. We'll pull through this. Some areas are doing well and some are still lagging.

 

:iagree: Not to quote Battlestar Galactica, but all of this has happened before and all of it will happen again. Right down to the imaginary money.

[Crimson Wife]

Not unless we are willing to take some hard medicine now, and not unless the majority readjusts back to a personal responsibility orientation. Gimmee gimmee will get us to Greece, sooner or later.

 

:iagree::iagree::iagree:

[BlsdMama]

It was built on imaginary money. It can't go back to the previous level.

 

This.

 

 

You cannot just buy and consume and buy and consume. It's not sustainable.

[Crimson Wife]

all of this has happened before and all of it will happen again. Right down to the imaginary money.

 

My grandma's grandpa was a real estate speculator in some silver boom town in Colorado and got wiped out in the Panic of 1873. He lost a staggering amount of money on paper- I forget the exact figure, but it was the equivalent of hundreds of millions of dollars in today's money. :eek:

[elegantlion]

:iagree: Not to quote Battlestar Galactica, but all of this has happened before and all of it will happen again. Right down to the imaginary money.

 

And here I thought you were a fan of coffee. :lol:

 

 

 

All this talk of imaginary money has me thinking of Monopoly. You know how it is when you play that game, or at least when I play that game, someone eventually knocks over the whole dang board and you have to start over. I think we're somewhere in that process.

[J-rap]

Because we are in the process of selling our business, we've had the opportunity to speak to many financial people. Their belief is that this recession is different than any other we have had in recent history, and no one really knows where it will go. It is not just the U.S. this time, but the economic situation in Europe too. The situation there has the potential to affect us quite dramatically. It is still unfolding.

 

I do believe our economy will be stable again someday, although it may never be quite the same. (Or as others have said -- the way people deal with it and view it may never be the same; hopefully in a better and smarter way.)

[Onceuponatime]

I agree with the house of cards/imaginary prosperity people.

 

 

Who knows what will happen in the future. I think it depends on the people more than the government. If we continue to want and spend more than we can afford, and continue to take on exhorbitant debts, it will not get better. The government is just an enabler.

[Jane in NC]

All this talk of imaginary money has me thinking of Monopoly. You know how it is when you play that game, or at least when I play that game, someone eventually knocks over the whole dang board and you have to start over. I think we're somewhere in that process.

 

And this gives me an excuse to share some trivia that my son recently told me.

 

Did you know that Monopoly has its roots in a game developed by Elizabeth Magie called "The Landlord's Game"? The point of playing was to demonstrate how paying rent enriched landlords and impoverished tenants. Magie espoused the theory of an economist named Henry George who believed that land and natural resources belong to the community and should not be held privately.

 

Now that you have your piece of trivia for the day you can carry on....

[elegantlion]

And this gives me an excuse to share some trivia that my son recently told me.

 

Did you know that Monopoly has its roots in a game developed by Elizabeth Magie called "The Landlord's Game"? The point of playing was to demonstrate how paying rent enriched landlords and impoverished tenants. Magie espoused the theory of an economist named Henry George who believed that land and natural resources belong to the community and should not be held privately.

 

Now that you have your piece of trivia for the day you can carry on....

 

Interesting.

[butterflymommy]

It will improve but the gap between rich and poor will remain wide, or widen further, and the middle class will be squeezed into non existence or close to it. Too many jobs have disappeared, and will continue to disappear, to countries with cheaper labor (this will increasingly apply to white collar and STEM positions), while a good number of domestic jobs go to undocumented workers who earn pennies on the dollar. Unionized jobs with decent salaries and benefits will continue to be chipped away-- just recently the local utility company replaced pensions with lump sum payouts at retirement, and the local teachers union lost half its tenure rate. I don't see much left, in the future, except business owners and service workers (including health care). So things will improve, sure, but without much of a middle class. I am also of the camp who thinks the elected president will make little difference beyond a psychological impact on the money holders.

[Kim in Appalachia]

I don't think this economy will ever truly recover. And I don't believe it will matter who is elected.

 

The financial issues are deep and have been a long time developing. Really, we are at the point where a lot of things are going to implode. I'm not trying to be negative, nor am I a doom and gloom kind of person. There are so many different problems, each needing to be honestly tackled. But that can't happen in a society that functions like ours. Change would be painful, expensive, and slow. But as a society we are not patient, we anger quickly and don't give leaders and chance to deal with anything. Add to that a system that is so controlled by interest groups, and I don't see anything fruitful happening.

[redsquirrel]

Will it recover? Well, I think it will transition into something different. To me, that is a better analogy. Like many have stated, it isn't going to be the same, because that was built on sand.

 

Fortunately or unfortunately, our future is tied to the rest of the world. That is the nature of multinational corporations. It is a strength and a weakness. The whole global economy really is in it together.

 

Look at the auto industry. I thought that was lost forever, gone to history. But, they really turned it around.

 

And, things are fine in many parts of the country. Wall Street is posting record highs. Corporations are showing record profits. Clearly, segments of the economy have roared back. I think there were some major mistakes made with TARP and that has slowed things down. The banks were 'saved' with our money, but told they could use the $$ to pay investors and give bonuses. So, it passed right from the bank into the pockets of people who didn't need it. They should have been limited to using that money for business loans etc. So, that part of the economy had a very nice, but very localized, recovery.

 

Where things are hurting is small towns. My city has a multi million dollar shortfall. That is due to money they owe to retirement and healthcare funds. We have that obligation and have to meet it. But, that means higher taxes. When we are firing teacher, police, firefighters, it is gutting our communities. Those are middle class jobs and the community will flounder if they leave.

[Crimson Wife]

I think there were some major mistakes made with TARP and that has slowed things down. The banks were 'saved' with our money, but told they could use the $$ to pay investors and give bonuses. So, it passed right from the bank into the pockets of people who didn't need it.

 

What most people do not understand is that in the financial services industry, year-end bonuses are really more like sales commissions. They serve to make up for a relatively low base pay.

 

People hear "bonus" and they start thinking of it being like in most other industries where a bonus is an unusual one-time reward for exceptional performance. But in finance, they are like sales commissions in that they allow the company to pay a relatively low base salary and then make up for it with an amount that can vary from year to year.

 

Since the government started interfering in bonus payments, Wall St. firms have had to shift a larger portion of the total comp from bonus to base. My DH's base is now nearly double what it was in 2008, but the overall total comp is similar because he is now getting a much smaller bonus. While that results in a more stable year-to-year income for the employee, it reduces the flexibility of employers to deal with changing business conditions.

[Firefly]

If this is so, it is because people far overestimate the power of the president over the economy.

 

:iagree: I do think the economy will recover eventually, but I don't believe it will have anything to do with who will be sitting in the Oval Office after the next election. As far as I'm concerned, my choices are two sides of the same bad penny. :glare:

[redsquirrel]

What most people do not understand is that in the financial services industry, year-end bonuses are really more like sales commissions. They serve to make up for a relatively low base pay.

 

People hear "bonus" and they start thinking of it being like in most other industries where a bonus is an unusual one-time reward for exceptional performance. But in finance, they are like sales commissions in that they allow the company to pay a relatively low base salary and then make up for it with an amount that can vary from year to year.

 

Since the government started interfering in bonus payments, Wall St. firms have had to shift a larger portion of the total comp from bonus to base. My DH's base is now nearly double what it was in 2008, but the overall total comp is similar because he is now getting a much smaller bonus. While that results in a more stable year-to-year income for the employee, it reduces the flexibility of employers to deal with changing business conditions.

 

I understand the bonus system. I also understand that many in the financial system who got TARP money as a bonus were those who were engaged in risky trading to begin with. That should not have happened.