Gloom and doom...

[BeckyFL]

I don't know whether I just have my head in the sand or what, but I'm not thinking that our economy is going to completely collapse any day now. My friend watches a lot of Glenn Beck (I like him, but haven't watched a lot lately at all) and it is to the point that every time we talk she is talking about how nothing is going to matter anyway... ALL the banks will go under, the stock market is going to crash, our money will be worth nothing, etc. and we had better have a lot of food on hand. This is depressing to listen to at best.

 

I know things are not good. I know our country is in a ridiculous amount of debt. But, are things really going to fall apart?

[chiguirre]

I think Stephen Colbert's March to Keep Fear Alive commentaries are a great antidote when everyone around you is convinced the world is on the brink of collapse.

[cdrumm4448]

I think you need to take anything anyone says with a grain of salt, but I also think it behooves you to be prepared (in any type of economy).

[mcconnellboys]

As someone else said, whether things decline relatively quickly or over the next decade or two, it still is a good idea to try to be prepared to be more self-sustaining.... I'm not necessarily advocating stockpiling food, etc., but just perhaps doing things such as teaching yourself to rotate your pantry well and keeping it well stocked. Perhaps beginning to learn some basic skills that a lot of folks take for granted these days, such as how to repair and maintain your family bikes; basics of sewing, etc.

 

I know many people in my area who are beginning to grow their own gardens and preserve some of their food each year; they're not doing a ton of stuff, but they're learning HOW to do these things. I know some who are beginning to learn to care for poultry and keep bees and other such things. I know many ladies who are beginning to work with fiber (with the pleasing side effect that some are becoming fiber artists who are turning out wonderful work)....

[RegGuheert]

I know things are not good. I know our country is in a ridiculous amount of debt. But, are things really going to fall apart?

Yes, they are. We have a fiat currency system and every fiat currency in the history of the world has eventually failed. The only question is when.

 

Coincidentally, there was an article published today which matches my thesis of the situation quite closely. (However, I think his family transportation example is a little lacking in terms of his understanding of physics, although I agree with the conclusion.)

 

Does any of this answer the question "When"? No. There are a lot of factors on both sides that make it difficult to know what will happen when. I prefer to focus on preparing rather than on what the outcomes may be, since there are too many possibilities to consider.

Edited October 6, 2010 by RegGuheert

[Mergath]

I guess it depends on your definition of collapse.

 

Will there be chaos in the streets? Rioting, murder, total anarchy? Probably not.

 

However, I think the vast majority of us are going to have to permanently adjust to a new, much lower standard of living than most have been used to. I don't think we're going to recover and return to the era of higher wages than everyone else in the world and constant indiscriminate spending by most of the population. The "Great Recession" is our new reality, if you ask me.

[Amy in NH]

are things really going to fall apart?

 

It is easier to manipulate people who are fearful.

[Sahamamama]

I guess it depends on your definition of collapse.

 

Will there be chaos in the streets? Rioting, murder, total anarchy? Probably not.

 

However, I think the vast majority of us are going to have to permanently adjust to a new, much lower standard of living than most have been used to. I don't think we're going to recover and return to the era of higher wages than everyone else in the world and constant indiscriminate spending by most of the population. The "Great Recession" is our new reality, if you ask me.

 

:iagree:Thanks, Mergath, you saved me time. :001_smile:

[RegGuheert]

 

Will there be chaos in the streets? Rioting, murder, total anarchy? Probably not.

There is quite a bit of that going on throughout Europe these days. Will it come to the US? Who knows? I certainly don't.

[MotherMayI]

:iagree:

 

I think Stephen Colbert's March to Keep Fear Alive commentaries are a great antidote when everyone around you is convinced the world is on the brink of collapse.

[Happy2BaMom]

I agree that it is good to be prepared with some "urban homesteading" skills. Dh & I are really into maximizing our garden, canning, getting chickens, etc. I think this is wise regardless of what will happen in the world, because I do think the future world is going to be less stable - overpopulation, global warming (however it happens) and the attending dislocations, etc..

 

I don't think it necessarily will be dramatic in the U.S. (look at Japan, which has a debt level - as a % of GDP - that is more than twice of the United States, and their population still gets up and goes to work everyday), but more of a continuing slow spiral downward, with bright pockets in various places...innovation does happen, and a lot of people are now starting to question the way things have been, which will lead to pockets of renewal.

 

But I want to be prepared, and be able to feed my family for a few weeks or a few months at a time.

 

As far as Glenn Beck goes, there are always doomsayers (remember the whole Y2K apocolypse? The Great Depression of the 1990's? Crash Proof?). Do you know the one thing that all of these had in common? The people predicting them became FILTHY rich by doing so. Forbes Magazine recently ran an article on Glenn Beck, detailing his multi-multi-million dollar empire. Yeah, he's real concerned about the common man. Now, if you'll just support him, he'll tell you more about what to do.....

 

Spare me. If/when the economy collapses, Mr. Beck & his lot will be on the first (private) plane out to his nearest (private) island.

 

Now, back to canning those tomatoes....

[BeckyFL]

I agree that it is good to be prepared with some "urban homesteading" skills. Dh & I are really into maximizing our garden, canning, getting chickens, etc. I think this is wise regardless of what will happen in the world, because I do think the future world is going to be less stable - overpopulation, global warming (however it happens) and the attending dislocations, etc..

 

I don't think it necessarily will be dramatic in the U.S. (look at Japan, which has a debt level - as a % of GDP - that is more than twice of the United States, and their population still gets up and goes to work everyday), but more of a continuing slow spiral downward, with bright pockets in various places...innovation does happen, and a lot of people are now starting to question the way things have been, which will lead to pockets of renewal.

 

But I want to be prepared, and be able to feed my family for a few weeks or a few months at a time.

 

As far as Glenn Beck goes, there are always doomsayers (remember the whole Y2K apocolypse? The Great Depression of the 1990's? Crash Proof?). Do you know the one thing that all of these had in common? The people predicting them became FILTHY rich by doing so. Forbes Magazine recently ran an article on Glenn Beck, detailing his multi-multi-million dollar empire. Yeah, he's real concerned about the common man. Now, if you'll just support him, he'll tell you more about what to do.....

 

Spare me. If/when the economy collapses, Mr. Beck & his lot will be on the first (private) plane out to his nearest (private) island.

 

Now, back to canning those tomatoes....

 

Canning tomatoes sounds like a good idea. I know that things could happen and, as a Christian, I believe we could be nearing "end times". It certainly can't hurt to be prepared. I guess it's just that we don't really know what or when or how anything will be. Is there a point to taking the days we DO have and filling them with all this negativity?

[BeckyFL]

Oh my! I heard a ding that I had a new email and when I opened it, look what I saw! LOL

 

Breaking News: U.S. Senator Predicts the . . .

 

'Financial Meltdown of Our Nation Because of Excessive Debt'

 

How Prepared Are YOU?

 

SPECIAL OFFER EXTENDED TO TODAY ONLY FOR SELECT FRIENDS!

 

Less Than 24 Hours Are Left to Claim the

One Book That May Protect You — For FREE!

BUBBLE #5

The Complete Death of the Dollar in 2011-2013

 

Imagine the aftermath if the dollar falls off a cliff:

 

Basic Necessities Gone Wild! — A gallon of gas could cost $12 to $15 (p. 106)

Cheap Becomes Unaffordable! — Imagine a $100,000 Toyota Camry? (p. 109)

The Triple Double-Digit Nightmare! — Double-digit inflation, double-digit interest rates, and high double-digit unemployment could soon be suffocating your wealth. (p. 66)

Six-figure salaried employees (the few that will remain) left living paycheck to paycheck? — About 27% of them do now. Could this become nearly 100% in the days of a dead dollar? (p. 48)

The Most Crippling Tax You’ve Never Heard of! — Since 2000, you’ve been hit secretly with a 60% tax. In the coming years, this tax could get even worse. (p. 66) Will it send even more of your wealth to “Money Heaven?” (p. 69)

The End of the American Monetary System — and the forced creation of a one-world currency (p. 178)

Edited October 6, 2010 by BeckyFL

[RegGuheert]

Is there a point to taking the days we DO have and filling them with all this negativity?

No. I certainly don't encourage negativity. I'm a rather matter-of-fact type of person. In order to make plans for our families, I feel we all need to have some opinion of what may be coming. Our opinion of what is coming WILL impact the activities we engage in every day. And the accuracy of our outlook will determine if we are going down a path that will be healthy for our family or not.

 

Have a look at my thread about planning 18 months ago. If you read the OP, I think you will see that the activities which we are doing are not steeped in negativity. In fact I will say that being so well prepared has made our home life much better than it had been in the past. Might I lose my job tomorrow? Yes. Do I worry about it? No. I PLAN for it. Heck, these days I even spend time in the garden with MomsintheGarden! (That's saying something given that I swore I would never do that after the gardening I did growing up! :tongue_smilie:) I'm in better shape than I've been in 20 years and I feel great!

 

I'm sorry, but I really don't know anything about Glen Beck other than having heard his name, so I won't comment on him. But if you want to follow a blogger who has called the economy accurately for as long as I have been reading (quite a few years), I recommend that you read Mike Shedlock's Global Economic Analysis. Be forewarned, what he writes there will often directly contradict what is said by many economists and politicians and what is published by the mainstream media.

Edited October 6, 2010 by RegGuheert

[justamouse]

I think Stephen Colbert's March to Keep Fear Alive commentaries are a great antidote when everyone around you is convinced the world is on the brink of collapse.

 

Word.

 

I guess it depends on your definition of collapse.

 

Will there be chaos in the streets? Rioting, murder, total anarchy? Probably not.

 

However, I think the vast majority of us are going to have to permanently adjust to a new, much lower standard of living than most have been used to. I don't think we're going to recover and return to the era of higher wages than everyone else in the world and constant indiscriminate spending by most of the population. The "Great Recession" is our new reality, if you ask me.

 

This.

 

Not for one minute do I think God has destruction and depression planned for us. Nope. Of course when I said that to my Mom who canned her little heart out for Y2K, she told me ...yeah, anyway, I was right. But I got really tired of picking up the pieces after of the prophets of doom, and turning people back around.

Edited October 6, 2010 by justamouse

[Barry Goldwater]

No. I certainly don't encourage negativity. I'm a rather matter-of-fact type of person. In order to make plans for our families, I feel we all need to have some opinion of what may be coming. Our opinion of what is coming WILL impact the activities we engage in every day. And the accuracy of our outlook will determine if we are going down a path that will be healthy for our family or not.

 

Have a look at my thread about planning 18 months ago. If you read the OP, I think you will see that the activities which we are doing are not steeped in negativity. In fact I will say that being so well prepared has made our home life much better than it had been in the past. Might I lose my job tomorrow? Yes. Do I worry about it? No. I PLAN for it. Heck, these days I even spend time in the garden with MomsintheGarden! (That's saying something given that I swore I would never do that after the gardening I did growing up! :tongue_smilie:) I'm in better shape than I've been in 20 years and I feel great!

 

I'm sorry, but I really don't know anything about Glen Beck other than having heard his name, so I won't comment on him. But if you want to follow a blogger who has called the economy accurately for as long as I have been reading (quite a few years), I recommend that you read Mike Shedlock's Global Economic Analysis. Be forewarned, what he writes there will often directly contradict what is said by many economists and politicians and what is published by the mainstream media.

 

:iagree: Mike S. is awesome. I also enjoy this one

 

www.market-ticker.org

 

His language is sometimes NSFW (he vents harshly) but his analyses are amazing. He was 3 years ahead on the current foreclosure crisis/fraud etc. Start with his 10 THINGS YOU MUST DO in the archives.

 

Also look up 'long-cycles' and Kondratieff winter...interesting reading.

 

I think we're looking at a tough 20 years + ahead, but I still have some faith in Western Civ.

 

Glenn Beck is entertaining and educational, but the more afraid and anxious you are, the more likely you are to watch...goes for all news outlets...you won't watch if they tell you, 'everything's just FINE!'

 

Preparation and prudent planning lead to peace of mind.

[astrid]

Word.

 

astrid

[Barry Goldwater]

I second The Market Ticker. We cannot mathematically keep this going. Go read some foreign online newspapers if you want to get out of the spin.

 

Don't you know that Karl is just a shill for Big Math??? :lol:

[elfgivas]

I don't know whether I just have my head in the sand or what, but I'm not thinking that our economy is going to completely collapse any day now. My friend watches a lot of Glenn Beck (I like him, but haven't watched a lot lately at all) and it is to the point that every time we talk she is talking about how nothing is going to matter anyway... ALL the banks will go under, the stock market is going to crash, our money will be worth nothing, etc. and we had better have a lot of food on hand. This is depressing to listen to at best.

 

I know things are not good. I know our country is in a ridiculous amount of debt. But, are things really going to fall apart?

 

 

i am so with you in almost all of this (the difference: i really don't like glen beck, as most of what he says turns out to not be able to be sourced factually, and i wasted a lot of time fact checking him before i figured out he wasn't all that concerned with facts).

 

in our house, we're making sure we're living within our means and have a bit of backup, too. and we turned off the television. that immediately made everything better! we do keep about a month's worth of food on hand, more because we live rurallly than for any other reason, but when we were snowed in for a week last winter, we were glad of it ; )

 

so no, i do not believe everything is going to fall apart. but i do believe that as individuals, families and a nation we have been living way beyond our means and we're seeing a huge market correction in that. i'm actually hoping that we don't go back to our previous standard of living, as it wasn't "real" anyway... it was borrowed...

 

fwiw,

ann

[BeckyFL]

:iagree: We need to wake up and live in financial reality as individuals and as a society.

[treestarfae]

I think everyone will be fine. The world will adjust to survive. Just like the US bailed out the banks and the world said moot about it. I doubt there will be world genocide. We are in bed with China so what's the worry?

[Slartibartfast]

Mother Jones had this article

 

http://motherjones.com/politics/2010/05/glenn-beck-goldline-weiner

[Mejane]

I don't know if things are going to "fall apart," but I don't think they're going to get better anytime soon. I agree we are living in a new reality - that people must now live within their means, and as Martha says, it's a good thing. ;)

 

We have lived below our means since we've had means, so we're not changing much, hoarding food or anything like that. Our immediate goal is to pay off our house so we have more expendable income in case of job loss or more downturn.

[JenC3]

Um no. Two words: Peak everything.

 

I'm with Barry G & Reg.

 

If you don't really follow what's been happening this past decade or so check out:

http://www.chrismartenson.com/

 

Watch the Crash Course and you have a better idea of where our future is headed.

[RegGuheert]

:iagree: Mike S. is awesome. I also enjoy this one

 

www.market-ticker.org

 

His language is sometimes NSFW (he vents harshly) but his analyses are amazing. He was 3 years ahead on the current foreclosure crisis/fraud etc. Start with his 10 THINGS YOU MUST DO in the archives.

Thanks for that! Since I had some trouble finding it I will post a direct link for others:

 

Karl Denninger: Ten Things You Must Do

 

Interestingly, there is quite a bit of overlap between his list and my post on preparation. But what really surprised me is that these two posts were only about one hour apart. Weird!

[cjbeach]

Since Becky just recently moved FROM the area that both Renee and I live ....... I cannot help but feel the same way you do, Becky. I wonder if it is geographically-related though.

This area has been hit hard, but as much as we have suffered economically here, when I talk to people back home, my friends/family don't quite get it. Our families have seen the numbers, but they haven't lived the numbers like we have. They don't live in an area where there are virtually no jobs or where people are existing on $8-9/hr jobs with families. They don't know what it's like to see your house value depreciate by 50% or more. They don't know what it's like to see every 8th or 9th house in your subdivision in foreclosure. We do.

So, when I talk to my friends and family back home they are not as "gloom and doom" as I have been. But I have reason to dread what may be coming.

Personally we are "hunkering down (thank you Jim Cantore;))."

There's a lot of talk around here about the housing market plummeting further with the number of ARMs that will hit in 2011!!! The fear is that people already way underwater on their mortgages will be pushed to walk from their homes if they cannot make the increased payment when their ARMS hit. How much futher can the FL real estate market fall?!?!?!

 

We are really trying to live cheaply and develop a good savings......JIC. We just went through 30 months of pure hell financially. I don't ever want to go back there again. I have neighbors still in that hell, still struggling, walking away from their homes and cars.

So many people are holding on by a thread. We're trying to build our own little financial bombshelter of sorts here, hoping to make it through whatever is coming.

This area can't take much more of an insult. :001_huh:

[RegGuheert]

If you don't really follow what's been happening this past decade or so check out:

http://www.chrismartenson.com/

 

Watch the Crash Course and you have a better idea of where our future is headed.

Wow! Thanks for this link! :thumbup: I just watched Chris Martenson's Crash Course. I must say that he is amazing at explaining difficult and poorly-understood topics! In this two-hour presentation, he has clearly explained difficult concepts that have taken me over a decade to find out about and learn. His analysis is dead-on and the graphics he has created are very helpful. The course is broken up into 21 shorter segments so you can easily watch it in pieces.

 

Regardless of your position on this topic you owe it yourself to watch this presentation. I think you will be glad that you did!

[BeckyFL]

Actually, I'm still in Florida. I haven't moved in 23 years. My house has lost half it's value as well. I know the economy has been very rough here. I just don't know what good it does to let it all go further in our minds, anticipating a complete collapse of all banks, the dollar, etc. I agree we should be prepared. But the point is, do we talk it constantly and "live" something that may never happen. What is that saying? "Never borrow from the future. If you worry about what may happen tomorrow and it doesn't happen, you have worried in vain. Even if it does happen, you have to worry twice."

[i.love.lucy]

Since Becky just recently moved FROM the area that both Renee and I live ....... I cannot help but feel the same way you do, Becky. I wonder if it is geographically-related though.

This area has been hit hard, but as much as we have suffered economically here, when I talk to people back home, my friends/family don't quite get it. Our families have seen the numbers, but they haven't lived the numbers like we have. They don't live in an area where there are virtually no jobs or where people are existing on $8-9/hr jobs with families. They don't know what it's like to see your house value depreciate by 50% or more. They don't know what it's like to see every 8th or 9th house in your subdivision in foreclosure. We do.

So, when I talk to my friends and family back home they are not as "gloom and doom" as I have been. But I have reason to dread what may be coming.

Personally we are "hunkering down (thank you Jim Cantore;))."

There's a lot of talk around here about the housing market plummeting further with the number of ARMs that will hit in 2011!!! The fear is that people already way underwater on their mortgages will be pushed to walk from their homes if they cannot make the increased payment when their ARMS hit. How much futher can the FL real estate market fall?!?!?!

 

We are really trying to live cheaply and develop a good savings......JIC. We just went through 30 months of pure hell financially. I don't ever want to go back there again. I have neighbors still in that hell, still struggling, walking away from their homes and cars.

So many people are holding on by a thread. We're trying to build our own little financial bombshelter of sorts here, hoping to make it through whatever is coming.

This area can't take much more of an insult. :001_huh:

I have to agree with this. I live in an area that has not been hit badly at all. I drive through suburb after suburb of McMansions with beemers in the driveway and nothing seems amiss at all. Granted there may be a few in crisis behind closed doors, but when you have 5 or 6, 700-home subdivisions in a small suburban community close to a medium-large city and everyone still wears their designer clothes and drives their Hummers, where's the pain? And my little community full of these people is a small sample of what surrounds my larger city. Really, it's surrounded on all sides by these suburbs. Homes in the $500k+ price point are the only ones having trouble selling.

 

Even if I wanted to go down the road of preparedness and having my own chickens, etc. I can't really. I am a renter, so I can't prepare for my shelter needs other than wanting to purchase another home again soon. And I can't afford to buy in the country unless we go waaayyyyyyyy out. Give and take there, I guess. So when I leave my house to drive to the well-stocked and well-dressed grocery store, and park next to any number of Suburbans, it's hard to feel like I should be doing anything at all aside from trying to keep up with those people (which I resist at all costs).:tongue_smilie:

[mo2]

It is easier to manipulate people who are fearful.

 

 

:iagree:

[RegGuheert]

I just don't know what good it does to let it all go further in our minds, anticipating a complete collapse of all banks, the dollar, etc. I agree we should be prepared. But the point is, do we talk it constantly and "live" something that may never happen.

While no one knows exactly what WILL happen, it is clear that the status quo of exponential growth cannot continue given that the resources of the world will not support such growth. (No finite resource can support exponential growth forever.)

What is that saying? "Never borrow from the future. If you worry about what may happen tomorrow and it doesn't happen, you have worried in vain. Even if it does happen, you have to worry twice."

I'm not an advocate of worrying, but at some point this stance sounds indistinguishable from denial. Truly I mean that as gently as possible. I understand that many people, like you, in Florida and Michigan and elsewhere have suffered much more than the rest of us during the initial wave of this storm. But that in no way changes the underlying factors which are driving the many issues facing the world today. These factors are unprecedented in the sense that we have never before approached the physical limits of our planet. Will we run out tomorrow? Of course not. Will we be able to continue extraction of so many precious resources at the exponentially-increasing rate that is needed to make our economies continue to function? Also of course not.

 

At some point we need to decide whether we will teach these truths to our children or hide it from them. If we do not teach them these facts, how will they make sense of what is happening in the world around them?

[BeckyFL]

While no one knows exactly what WILL happen, it is clear that the status quo of exponential growth cannot continue given that the resources of the world will not support such growth. (No finite resource can support exponential growth forever.) I'm not an advocate of worrying, but at some point this stance sounds indistinguishable from denial. Truly I mean that as gently as possible. I understand that many people, like you, in Florida and Michigan and elsewhere have suffered much more than the rest of us during the initial wave of this storm. But that in no way changes the underlying factors which are driving the many issues facing the world today. These factors are unprecedented in the sense that we have never before approached the physical limits of our planet. Will we run out tomorrow? Of course not. Will we be able to continue extraction of so many precious resources at the exponentially-increasing rate that is needed to make our economies continue to function? Also of course not.

 

At some point we need to decide whether we will teach these truths to our children or hide it from them. If we do not teach them these facts, how will they make sense of what is happening in the world around them?

 

I do believe the kids should know what is happening in the world.. no question there. We're doing the best we can without getting the chickens and animals since we don't live in the country. We're out of debt (thanks to God!), have some food in the pantry, make as much as we can from scratch and try to think of ways to save money any place we can. In my mind, beyond preparations, all the worrying in the world isn't going to help me.

Edited October 8, 2010 by BeckyFL

[RegGuheert]

 

In my mind, beyond preparations, all the worrying in the world isn't going to help me.

I agree. Best wishes to you and your family!

[ChrisOR]

"The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."

 

I've been thinking about this FDR quote which refers to the economic woes of the early 1930s. This sentiment has become so "American" that the majority of Americans believe any fear and concern is wrong. Many do live only in the moment, failing to save money or food like our ancestors had to. Preparation for the lean times is a good thing.

[Tea Time]

It is easier to manipulate people who are fearful.

 

I don't know; it is pretty darn easy to manipulate people who are entertained and distracted and not fearful at all. I'd go even farther and say you don't even have to bother to manipulate them. They fall right into line. Consider the book Brave New World. Now days there seems to be a lot of people who would read that book and have no earthly idea why the savage kills himself at the end.

[Onceuponatime]

Um no. Two words: Peak everything.

 

I'm with Barry G & Reg.

 

If you don't really follow what's been happening this past decade or so check out:

http://www.chrismartenson.com/

 

Watch the Crash Course and you have a better idea of where our future is headed.

 

I'm halfway through this, watching a little at a time. It's very well done, highly recommended, and very unnerving.

[SquirrellyMama]

I don't know whether I just have my head in the sand or what, but I'm not thinking that our economy is going to completely collapse any day now. My friend watches a lot of Glenn Beck (I like him, but haven't watched a lot lately at all) and it is to the point that every time we talk she is talking about how nothing is going to matter anyway... ALL the banks will go under, the stock market is going to crash, our money will be worth nothing, etc. and we had better have a lot of food on hand. This is depressing to listen to at best.

 

I know things are not good. I know our country is in a ridiculous amount of debt. But, are things really going to fall apart?

 

I personally think Glenn Beck is more interested in getting listeners and selling gold than anything.

[m0mmaBuck]

I don't know; it is pretty darn easy to manipulate people who are entertained and distracted and not fearful at all. I'd go even farther and say you don't even have to bother to manipulate them. They fall right into line. Consider the book Brave New World. Now days there seems to be a lot of people who would read that book and have no earthly idea why the savage kills himself at the end.

 

:iagree:

DH and I were just talking about this the other day.

[KingM]

I have serious worries about everything from the economy and energy to the Islamization of Europe. However, it's useful to remember that every generation seems to believe the world is coming to an end. Sometimes (imagine living in Poland in the 1930s), it really does come to an end.

 

But then things get better.