long interesting article about fertility rates

[cathmom]

http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/america%E2%80%99s-one-child-policy

 

My dh sent this to me today.

[FaithManor]

Wow, that was quite enlightening and confirms what I've always thought. There just aren't enough workers paying into the system. Dh has always said that every dime he's ever paid into Social Security was money down a hole for us because it would be gone by the time he ever hoped of retiring. I think the numbers speak for themselves and he is right.

 

As for immigration to prop up the system, it won't work unless it's all legal immigration and those workers pay into the system.

 

One issue that this article did not address is that it isn't always economics, education, career motivations, etc. that drives the low birthrate. I have met a lot of young women that look at our government, the turmoil, wars, etc. and literally think it would be immoral to bring a child into a world with such a dismal future or at least they envision a dismal future whether or not that is an accurate picture. I've met nine just this year that intend on having NO children because they have such a dim view of the world. Given our economic depression, at least in this state, and the chaos it has wrought, one can hardly blame them for feeling this way.

 

Food for thought.

Faith

[emubird]

 

As for immigration to prop up the system, it won't work unless it's all legal immigration and those workers pay into the system.

 

 

Food for thought.

Faith

 

Illegal immigrants do pay into the SS system (assuming they have a job that requires a SSN -- which many do, they just use fake numbers). However, if they're using a fake number, they're not going to be able to get the money back out in benefits. So illegal immigration could potentially do a lot to prop up the system.

[laughing lioness]

Thanks for posting this. I think it's interesting that it's committed faith that brings about higher family size yet governments keep thinking if they throw money or slogans out there it will fix the problem.

[Renee in NC]

Illegal immigrants do pay into the SS system (assuming they have a job that requires a SSN -- which many do, they just use fake numbers). However, if they're using a fake number, they're not going to be able to get the money back out in benefits. So illegal immigration could potentially do a lot to prop up the system.

 

:iagree:

 

Few illegal immigrants work under the table, most use fake papers/SS numbers and pay SS/Medicare on their wages. They will never be able to collect on those benefits, but they do contribute a great deal to the system. The net effect is higher for an illegal immigrant than a legal one.

[cathmom]

Dh and I were in favor of the idea of not taking out SS if you have a certain number of children. It makes sense because you are raising the next generation of workers to prop up the system.

[mycalling]

If we are to maintain even our modest 2.06, we need an ever-greater supply of immigrants.

This is complete bull. What we need is for Americans to have more children.

If we were to keep the ratio at the present level of three workers for every retiree—already lower than it has ever been—America would need to add 44.9 million new immigrants between 2025 and 2035. If we wanted to keep the ratio at 5.2 workers for every retiree—about what it was in 1960, before the collapse of our fertility rate—we’d need to import 10.8 million immigrants every year until 2050.

Wow, nothing on the native American population reproducing to help...can you hear the ringing of propaganda that I can?:glare:

[Mrs Mungo]

This is complete bull. What we need is for Americans to have more children. Wow, nothing on the native American population reproducing to help...can you hear the ringing of propaganda that I can?:glare:

 

You *obviously* did not read the entire article. That was meant to imply importing that many immigrants is implausible.

 

And the truth is, America needs more of such statements. The United Nations Population Division’s projection of our demographic future makes for stark reading. Native fertility rates are so low that without a continual influx of immigrants to stave off population decline, our population will shrink from 308 million to 290 million by 2050.

 

Our challenge is to balance three needs: (1) a stable population, (2) a plausible ratio of workers-to-retirees, and (3) a manageable number of immigrants. Yet, for instance, to keep the worker-support ratio at high levels would require, as we saw earlier, gargantuan levels of immigration. Keeping immigration at a reasonable level (the U.N. uses 760,000 immigrants a year as a baseline) would mean that our population would increase to 349 million in 2050, but that our worker-support ratio would be cut in half. If we cut off immigration altogether the worker-support ratio would be even lower, and in addition, we’d face rapid population decline.

 

The simplest answer is for Americans to have more babies.

 

The article is in favor of tax incentives for those people who are creating more tax payers.

Edited September 22, 2010 by Mrs Mungo