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They are saying more than half the US population could get swine flu...


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and the amt of deaths could be more than double that of regular flu.

 

I wonder if it is scare tactics to get people to vaccinate.

 

Maybe Perry will weigh in with her recent thoughts on things.

 

 

Do you have a link to the story?? I'd love to read it. Thanks.:)

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I actually had a talk with my kid's ped about swine flu last week and he told me that he feels it has been widely blown out of proportion by the media and if it had been called anything but "swine" flu it wouldn't be such a big deal. He is much more concerned about the "regular" flu since that kills more people every year.

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Here is one article. It's about a new report that science advisors delivered to the pres.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8_2nrwYD1kM

 

IMO, public health is in a no-win on this & is valiantly trying to sail a steady course. There are only so many times folks can say: we don't know. Prepare because it might be bad, but maybe it won't be. We don't know.

 

If they don't say anything, and don't prepare, and all of a sudden there is a surge in cases & fatalities - then there'll be moaning about how incompetent they were & why didn't they warn us? And why didn't they do something?

 

If they do say be prepared because it could be bad, but then it fizzles out, then there'll be accusations of fear mongering, crying wolf, blah blah. And that's before the tin hat people get into the conversation. :001_smile:

 

 

Disclosure: I'm a moderator on a flutrackers site. I think it's going to be a severe flu season. Not a 1918 but a 1957. I agree with these public health scientists:

http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2009/08/swine_flu_this_fall_turbulence.php

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I just wanted to add that all these projections are just - well projections. Everyone is trying to crunch the numbers & figure out how bad it will be but we always are making assumptions.

 

Will it remain the same level of virulence as we're seeing in the Southern Hemisphere?

 

What kind of mutations will develop?

 

How well established is the mutation for Tamiflu resistance? Will Tamiflu resistance continue to spread? (remember that this year's SEASONAL A/ variety flu was almost 100% resistant to Tamiflu. Will this novel flu go the same way?)

 

Here's another analysis of the # with different results than the president's scientists:

 

http://knol.google.com/k/marya-d-zilberberg/swine-origin-influenza-a-h1n1-virus-and/3htiswudddv6h/1?collectionId=28qm4w0q65e4w.1&position=2#

 

They assumed a 15% attack rate, of which 6% needed hospitalization, of which 12% develop acute respiratory failure, of which 58% die.

 

These are #'s based on what's coming out of other countries now.

 

These #'s give you 192,320 dead in the USA.

 

 

 

 

Everyone is crunching #'s & there are many computer simulation models which have been developed for tracking pandemic disease but it's still a case of GIGO - garbage in/garbage out. We gave up tracking, we have insufficient data & now we're basing predictions on that poor data.

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America's went through the whole swine flu scare before.

 

This is probably a new strain and no doubt if you are autoimmune or elderly than a shot may be needed but I would be hesitant to take a shot that has not had clinical trials.

 

I have seen several die of the yearly flu but they were not healthy prior to the virus or they lived in less clean/healthy environments (street people)

 

 

http://www.capitalcentury.com/1976.html

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My sister and I just had a conversation about this today because I am a Sunday school teacher at my church, and we've been informed if a child in the church contracts it, the children's ministries will be shut down for 2 weeks (Health Dept. mandate). This will cause severe headaches for so many families (however, I understand the whys behind this). Some are saying it's excessive and we are just being bombarded by the media to become afraid... It has me worried though.

 

Is there anyone else that is just as worried about getting the vaccine for their children? I'm fearful of the vaccine as well as the actual swine flu. I feel like we're in a tough position as parents to do the best for our children.

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I'm not concerned. Wasn't there a big media frenzy over SARS a few years ago? I think we have too many 24-hour news stations without enough to talk about.

 

I was working with lactation students at the time of the outbreak in Canada & it was terrifying. Nurses were very hard hit by this virus. It arrived suddenly,disappeared suddenly. We still understand very little about it.

 

People were terrified of going to work, terrified of coming home & what they were bringing back to their families.

 

It had a global case fatality rate of almost 10%. (regular flu just as an fyi is <1% and that's among the elderly). In Canada, the CFR was 17%.

 

It killed doctors & nurses.

 

It had a terrible impact on the economy.

 

I would not say it was a frenzy. It was a legitimate concern over something we didn't understand & still don't know enough about. It fizzled out but we couldn't predict it would do that.

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I am worried when I hear "unlikely" and words like that when it comes to catching something contagious.

That was what I was told when I came in contact with psittacosis when I was 18 and in my second trimester.

I was told there had never been a case (in CA) of a preg woman catching it and I was young - not infant or old - so it was HIGHLY unlikely I would catch it from a short contact with a bird that died from it.

I ended up almost dying from it - and though the baby was NOT born with feathers :001_huh: - I had illness side effects for about two years after.

SO, I have my STINK-EYE on this bird/swine/human flu ... and don't believe anything they say ... well not most of it ...

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They assumed a 15% attack rate, of which 6% needed hospitalization, of which 12% develop acute respiratory failure, of which 58% die.

 

I guess that 58% is where the "half of the population" part of the title of this thread came from. (Not blaming the OP, it's probably how the media portrayed it.)

 

I hate this whole thing. For just one year out of my kid's lives I send them to preschool (1.5 hours a day.) And now I really don't want to, but I don't want to live in fear, either. And I already agreed to drive another kid to preschool and if I back out now, I totally mess up another family's child care. UGH. I'll do what I think is best, but I hate having to mess up someone else's plans.

 

Why did this have to happen on my one preschool year?!?!

 

And what to do about vaccinations?

 

And another poster said it probably'll only affect old sick people, but I don't think she knows that this flu acutally affects people in their middle years (not babies and the elderly) and kills perfectly healthy adults in their prime.

 

I'm just rambling now.

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I was working with lactation students at the time of the outbreak in Canada & it was terrifying. Nurses were very hard hit by this virus. It arrived suddenly,disappeared suddenly. We still understand very little about it.

 

People were terrified of going to work, terrified of coming home & what they were bringing back to their families.

 

It had a global case fatality rate of almost 10%. (regular flu just as an fyi is <1% and that's among the elderly). In Canada, the CFR was 17%.

 

It killed doctors & nurses.

 

It had a terrible impact on the economy.

 

I would not say it was a frenzy. It was a legitimate concern over something we didn't understand & still don't know enough about. It fizzled out but we couldn't predict it would do that.

 

:iagree:

 

Also, many people believe that the reason it didn't turn into an epidemic was because of the immediate public health response, containing the virus and preventing spread.

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I guess that 58% is where the "half of the population" part of the title of this thread came from. (Not blaming the OP, it's probably how the media portrayed it.)

 

No. I want to clarify this. The story was correct.

 

The PCAST report assumed a much higher attack rate (how many people get sick). They are projecting 30-50% of the population will get it.

 

But PCAST is projecting it will be milder than the authors of the other report I linked to assume.

 

From the PCAST report (which is the one making the news now)

 

••produce infection of 30–50% of the U.S. population this fall and winter, with symptoms in approximately 20–40% of the population (60–120 million people), more than half of whom would seek medical attention.

••lead to as many as 1.8 million U.S. hospital admissions during the epidemic, with up to 300,000 patients requiring care in intensive care units (ICUs). Importantly, these very ill patients could occupy 50–100 percent of all ICU beds in affected regions of the country at the peak of the epidemic and could place enormous stress on ICU units, which normally operate close to capacity.

••cause between 30,000 and 90,000 deaths in the United States, concentrated among children and young adults. In contrast, the 30,000–40,000 annual deaths typically associated with seasonal flu in the United States occur mainly among people over 65. As a result, 2009-H1N1 would lead to many more years of life lost.

••pose especially high risks for individuals with certain pre-existing conditions, including pregnant women and patients with neurological disorders or respiratory impairment, diabetes, or severe obesity and possibly for certain populations, such as Native Americans.

 

Full PCAST report is here:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/assets/documents/PCAST_H1N1_Report.pdf

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Congrats, Hornblower, you've actually given me pause...

 

sheesh, and I was all ready to blow this off.

 

You and your numbers and articles.

 

I'm going off to find a rock my family can live under, see you next summer :(

 

 

The numbers suck. Anyway you run them IMO.

 

And consider that PCAST was assuming a high attack rate but mild illness; this report (the #'s I posted previously) was assuming low attack rate but higher severity. What if it ends up high attack rate AND high severity?

 

OTOH, it could end up low attack rate AND low severity & we'll all be laughing and saying, man, those public health people are SO uptight!

 

Have fun under your rock. Don't forget the 30 day prep list X how many months you're going away for .....

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This is probably a new strain and no doubt if you are autoimmune or elderly than a shot may be needed but I would be hesitant to take a shot that has not had clinical trials.

First Wave of Swine Flue Hits Young People Harder than Expected. This is similar to the first wave of the Spanish Flu.

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The numbers suck. Anyway you run them IMO.

 

And consider that PCAST was assuming a high attack rate but mild illness; this report (the #'s I posted previously) was assuming low attack rate but higher severity. What if it ends up high attack rate AND high severity?

 

OTOH, it could end up low attack rate AND low severity & we'll all be laughing and saying, man, those public health people are SO uptight!

 

Have fun under your rock. Don't forget the 30 day prep list X how many months you're going away for .....

You are just chock full of information aren't you ;)

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I wonder if it is scare tactics to get people to vaccinate.

 

.

 

 

I'm concerned about swine flu but I'm also concerned about the safety of the vaccine. I've heard that the vaccine will contain something called squalene which some consider an ingredient linked to Gulf War Syndrome.

 

I was already leaning heavily towards skipping the vaccine but I still want to find out what squalene is.

 

For now I'll keep passing around the vitamin D and doing what we can to strengthen our immune systems.

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I agree with everything hornblower is saying.

 

 

While these are "just estimates", they aren't numbers pulled out of thin air. They're based on the reproductive ratio of the infection ("the mean number of secondary cases a typical single infected case will cause in a population with no immunity to the disease in the absence of interventions to control the infection") and case fatality rates. Since most of us don't have immunity (because it's a new virus), there are many more susceptible hosts and it makes it very easy for the virus to spread.

 

Here's what worries me:

 

 

CDC

Quote:

How have different age groups been affected by novel H1N1 flu in terms of deaths?

 

CDC studied the hospital records of 268 patients hospitalized with novel H1N1 flu early on during the outbreak. The number of deaths was highest among people 25 to 49 years of age (39%), followed by people 50 to 64 year of age (25%) and people 5 to 24 year of age (16%) This is a very different pattern from what is seen in seasonal influenza, where an estimated 90% of influenza-related deaths occur in people 65 years of age and older.

So 80% of the deaths are younger than 65, compared with 10% in a typical year.

 

Projections:

 

Typical year, about 3000 deaths in people younger than 65 (10% of 30,000), and most of those are in otherwise sick people... cancer, immunocomprimised, severe asthma, etc.

 

This year, about 72,000 deaths in people younger than 65 (80% of 90,000), a 2,300% increase in deaths in that age group.

 

Of course, it could fizzle out.

 

Also, keep in mind that if we start vaccinating, and are able to vaccinate a substantial number of people, those numbers will be much lower.

 

And then we will hear the inevitable "what was the big deal?"

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This is a little off topic, but...how does the swine flu vaccine differ from the regular flu vaccine? Don't they create new flu vaccines every year based on different strains of the flu? Or are these new vaccines very similar to the original? I'm having a difficult time wrapping my head around the safety of the swine flu vaccine vs. the regular flu vaccine. Is the regular flu vaccine for new strains put through rigorous testing as well or is it just put out there?

 

Does anyone have the answer to ANY of these questions?

 

Thanks,

 

Paula

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I'm concerned about swine flu but I'm also concerned about the safety of the vaccine. I've heard that the vaccine will contain something called squalene which some consider an ingredient linked to Gulf War Syndrome.

 

 

The US version doesn't contain an adjuvant (squalene is one type of adjuvant; there are others). There is a possibility of adding an adjuvant later if immune response to the vaccine isn't good enough.

 

Other countries might have it. I'll look into it.

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I actually had a talk with my kid's ped about swine flu last week and he told me that he feels it has been widely blown out of proportion by the media and if it had been called anything but "swine" flu it wouldn't be such a big deal. He is much more concerned about the "regular" flu since that kills more people every year.

 

a voice of reason!!!:)

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The US version doesn't contain an adjuvant (squalene is one type of adjuvant; there are others). There is a possibility of adding an adjuvant later if immune response to the vaccine isn't good enough.

 

Other countries might have it. I'll look into it.

 

Thank you!

 

I've just started reading about squalene today and the first thing I had to do was look up the meaning of adjuvant. :)

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The problem with this and any other pandemic threat is that if we wait until the actual CFR (case fatality rate) warrants us pulling out all the stops and taking extreme precautions, by then it is too late for those precautions to save most of us. And everyone will be screaming about not being forewarned warned about the danger.

 

Swine flu is different from the "regular" flu in that it 1)is more contageous because no one has any immunity (spreads to more people more easily), and 2)affects more of the younger, healthier people instead of the weaker, more elderly people, and 3)has continued to be present at a low level in the population during the summer months instead of going away like typical flus have in the past(increasing the liklihood that it could mutate into something more severe). Although the CFR may not be higher, since many more people are likely to get it, even if the CFR is identical to the "regular" flu, many more people will die than usual. And most of them will be children and adults in the prime of their lives.

 

It all comes down to whether or not you are willing to bet that your family won't get it, that if you do you won't be one of the severe cases requiring hospitalization, and that you won't have one of the thousands of cases that will result in death. If this flu ends up being very contageous but generally mild, then I won't go very far beyond the flu precautions I follow every winter. If it proves to be more deadly, then I absolutely will take action to prevent us from getting it.

 

I personally see nothing wrong with taking every reasonable precaution that I possibly can in that case. My dd wears a helmet when she rides her bike because she might have a bad fall. We all wear seatbelts because we might have a bad crash. So why would I not take proper flu precautions? I'm not talking about moving to Antarctica to avoid it, but I am talking about using various vitamin and herb supplements, social distancing, frequent handwashing, use of hand sanitizer, and use of N95 masks if we have to go out. If others don't agree with me, that's fine. We each have to assess our own level of risk and concern.

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I'm concerned about swine flu but I'm also concerned about the safety of the vaccine. I've heard that the vaccine will contain something called squalene which some consider an ingredient linked to Gulf War Syndrome.

 

I was already leaning heavily towards skipping the vaccine but I still want to find out what squalene is.

 

For now I'll keep passing around the vitamin D and doing what we can to strengthen our immune systems.

 

:iagree::iagree: The articles I've read about the vaccine make me nervous. All of the "unknowns" related to it scare me. Many other new vaccines have had problems in the past, so I'd prefer to know how it's received before we get it. Yet I'm scared of the virus also!:confused: I'm ready to crawl in my hole for the winter.

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The US version doesn't contain an adjuvant (squalene is one type of adjuvant; there are others). There is a possibility of adding an adjuvant later if immune response to the vaccine isn't good enough.

 

Other countries might have it. I'll look into it.

 

Apparently, Canada is...

 

"Results from trials of the avian flu vaccine suggest one dose should be enough, particularly since Canada's flu vaccine supplier, GlaxoSmithKline, is using an additive known as adjuvant, he said. Adjuvants are used to boost immune response from vaccines"

 

"Butler-Jones said that risks of swine flu far outweigh any theoretical risks of the adjuvanted vaccine, including for groups such as pregnant women and children."

 

""We see no apparent safety signal," she said. "There is no safety concern with using adjuvanted vaccine.""

 

Quotes taken from here

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a voice of reason!!!:)

 

My pediatrician (a calm, conservative gal, in my opinion) said the opposite.

 

She is strongly recommending the vaccine for children and young adults. She has had several young patients hospitalized for it this summer, and said she hopes people will take it seriously and get the vaccine.

 

This is a doctor who has never recommended flu shots for us in the past. (I've never had one...) This year, we'll be getting them.

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My sister and I just had a conversation about this today because I am a Sunday school teacher at my church, and we've been informed if a child in the church contracts it, the children's ministries will be shut down for 2 weeks (Health Dept. mandate). This will cause severe headaches for so many families (however, I understand the whys behind this). Some are saying it's excessive and we are just being bombarded by the media to become afraid... It has me worried though.

 

Is there anyone else that is just as worried about getting the vaccine for their children? I'm fearful of the vaccine as well as the actual swine flu. I feel like we're in a tough position as parents to do the best for our children.

 

That makes no sense. They are not shutting down schools.

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The US version doesn't contain an adjuvant (squalene is one type of adjuvant; there are others). There is a possibility of adding an adjuvant later if immune response to the vaccine isn't good enough.

 

Other countries might have it. I'll look into it.

 

Thank you. I have heard from many people that this adjuvant was added, but then the CDC site says it is not approved in the US so it is good to hear it from someone 'in the know'.

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That makes no sense. They are not shutting down schools.

 

I'm not sure if the 'they' you refer to is the CDC, but, school officials round these parts decided to cancel school for a week or more if a student was infected with H1N1. Two schools were shut down in this manner.

 

When parents complained, the policy was changed to just a warning letter. I suppose if deaths start happening, they'll return to the shut-down policy.

Edited by CookieMonster
stupid unnecessary apostrophe
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Our state's public radio hosts a health show, and last week they discussed flu and swine flu (H1N1). Our state (MS) is currently experiencing "mini-epidemics" in various pockets throughout the state (our town happens to be one of those pockets). The MDs on the show said that they stopped testing for H1N1 because for the last month everyone with flu symptoms tested positive for H1N1 and running tests on everyone seemed to be an unnecessary expense. They are just reporting all flu as H1N1. Most cases they are seeing are mild; in fact, many patients coming in with complaints of "bad allergies" (and even back aches) are also testing positive for H1N1. One of the MDs on the show had it herself. She said it wiped her out for about a week. Most cases here are starting with stomach cramps and vomitting followed by rather typical flu-like symptoms in varying degrees of severity (mostly mild).

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Don't forget the 30 day prep list X how many months you're going away for .....

 

I checked out the list--thanks for posting the link! However, I didn't see Pedialyte or Gatorade listed as things to keep. We try to keep Gatorade (the light-colored Rain type) on hand to help ward off dehydration. Should those be included in one's stockpile?

 

I, too, was going to blow this off as media hype, especially since nothing really came of it last spring. Now, I'm not so sure...

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I checked out the list--thanks for posting the link! However, I didn't see Pedialyte or Gatorade listed as things to keep. We try to keep Gatorade (the light-colored Rain type) on hand to help ward off dehydration. Should those be included in one's stockpile?...

 

 

Yes, absolutely! I didn't realize that it's not there.

 

A good thing also is to print out instructions for how to make your own oral rehydration solution & put them in a folder with where the supplies are. This is simple enough that even kids can make it - if you're really sick, you may need to rely on the kids to prep it for you.

 

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=16760&highlight=oral+rehydration

 

Also you can download & place in a binder with the supplies the Home Treatment for Flu book by Dr. Grattan Woodson:

http://birdflumanual.com/resources/Home_Influenza_Treatment/files/Good%20Home%20Treatment%20of%20Influenza/Default.asp

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After reading about the 1918 pandemic, and how newspapers were required to downplay the deaths I don't believe anything I read. I'm betting there is a whole lot we are not being told.

 

I will hope for the best, but plan for the worst. If all my planning was for nothing, that's ok by me.

 

Hopefully it will all blow over, but you know what they say - it's not IF the world will experience another pandemic, but when....

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Our state's public radio hosts a health show, and last week they discussed flu and swine flu (H1N1). Our state (MS) is currently experiencing "mini-epidemics" in various pockets throughout the state (our town happens to be one of those pockets). The MDs on the show said that they stopped testing for H1N1 because for the last month everyone with flu symptoms tested positive for H1N1 and running tests on everyone seemed to be an unnecessary expense. They are just reporting all flu as H1N1. Most cases they are seeing are mild; in fact, many patients coming in with complaints of "bad allergies" (and even back aches) are also testing positive for H1N1. One of the MDs on the show had it herself. She said it wiped her out for about a week. Most cases here are starting with stomach cramps and vomitting followed by rather typical flu-like symptoms in varying degrees of severity (mostly mild).

 

It's been mild around here, too. I was kinda hoping we'd get it in the summer, thinking that we'd have some immunity if it mutated...

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cathmom -

 

I'm monitoring ILI (influenza like illness) reports for my area. While nobody is actually testing full out anymore, public health is still tracking ILI visits to drs as well as hospitalizations & deaths.

 

Your public health region will have this data - sometimes buried deep but it's public (it is in Canada anyway). It's usually at least a week out of date but you can get a sense of trends.

 

If cases rise dramatically, then definitely we would curtail our outside activities.

Edited by hornblower
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You are just chock full of information aren't you ;)

 

That's why we love this board. :001_smile:

 

When people die from this, how is it that they are dying? I read something that indicated it is from the body's overreaction to the virus. Someone somewhere stated that vitamin D can be taken to prevent this overreaction. Anyone know more about this?

 

I'm torn. I don't like the idea of getting the vaccine but if my dh or one of my dc died from this, I don't think I could live with the regret! We may just stock up on supplies for a month, medicines, hand sanitizers and masks. I'm still pondering what to do. I was worried earlier this year and dh laughed but now even he is starting to worry.

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Here is a new article on Swine

 

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2009/08/28/world/international-uk-flu-pandemic.html

 

Earlier, WHO reported that H1N1 had reached epidemic levels in Japan, signalling an early start to what may be a long influenza season this year, and that it was also worsening in tropical regions.

"Perhaps most significantly, clinicians from around the world are reporting a very severe form of disease, also in young and otherwise healthy people, which is rarely seen during seasonal influenza infections," WHO said.

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