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happysmileylady

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happysmileylady last won the day on April 29

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About happysmileylady

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  1. I haven't heard anything like this, and I won't lie....there's only so much I can calculate at any one time so...yeah, I haven't been working on those calculations.
  2. This is the link to the Ohio dashboard. You can click on each county and it will give you county totals. If you know the county total over yesterday, then you can figure that daily increase https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards Also however the downloadable spreadsheet is pretty informative If you click on the link that says "download the summary data (CSV)" It lists cases by county, gender, test date, etc etc. As an excel sheet, it's easy to sort and then set up the formulas to do the math. Now, to try to figure out trends, day over day, by county, you would have to track the data by yourself....at least as best that I can tell.
  3. I don't necessarily disagree with you, I just think........everything is already stretched to it's very limit in terms of medical practice, medical research and medical data collection. So, sure....try to be as accurate as possible specifically because very real very big decisions have to be made. I also however think it's also important to remember that many similar very big decisions are regularly made with similarly imperfect data.
  4. totally correct. But since it's super easy, I don't have an issue with it. Much like I feel like it's pretty much security theater to wear it into the store....It's also really not worth the hassle to me to potentially deal with the other side of things. My costco cheese is much more important to me than trying to take some sort of stand about a topic that doesn't matter than much to me IRL. (FTR, that's not sarcasm. I would rather wear a mask in costco and get the cheese that's affordable to me, than deal with trying to take some sort of political stance at costco.....or spend more money than necessary trying to order pick up from Kroger.....that's going to screw it up anyway. )
  5. Really, it probably has to be. I mean, if most people who test positive are just sent home with some sudafed or nyquil and never show up at an er....it's likely really hard to track. It's not like most public health officials are requiring people who test positive to come back for testing to make sure they are negative.
  6. Truth is, this sort of guesswork has always been part of medicine. Often, what is listed as "complications of influenza" or "complications of cancer" or whatever, is really some actual other cause.....blood clot caused stroke, heart attack after a particular test, etc etc.
  7. Ohio has total cases broken down by county. But then on the Ohio website is a downloadable spreadsheet that is easily sortable by age, county, positive test date, hospitalization date (if hospitalized) and date of death when the unfortunate happens.) So, it takes some math to try to work out the percentages and such. And, as I said, a bit of estimation. I estimate that if a case was tested positive over a month ago, it's most likely that the person has recovered. I mean, not in all cases, but since in many cases, people recover in closer to two weeks (ish) then I figure a month is a good enough estimation to try to figure current active/contagious cases. BUT, I know I have said it before.....we just don't DO a lot. I grocery shop. In the summer we spend maybe an hourish at the pool maybe 3 days per week, and we aren't there socializing with others, generally. Library is like once every 1 to 3 weeks, and....it's closed right now, they aren't even open for curbside pick up yet. (though that should start next week.) The kids had scouts but that's all way cancelled and no one here is strongly affected by that. So for us.....there's really not a lot to assess. DH has to go to work, and his work provides masks for him since they require it, plus they are doing temp checks on each employee every morning. When all of that is added to a very low number of active cases in our area....I just feel that the overall risk is just super super low.
  8. actual active cases in my area is totally a part of my overall risk assessment. It's for sure a factor in figuring out how likely I am to actually be exposed myself and then potentially expose others. When like 98% to 99.5% of the population isn't likely to be contagious....EVEN when using generous assumptions of asymptomatic/untested cases....the likelihood that I will encounter one of those people is extremely low. Add to that the fact that the vast majority of my own encounters are brief, pass someone in the grocery store type encounters, and yeah, I figure the risk is low. Even once our local pool opens, the likelihood that someone among the less than 400 total families that are members, will be infected, AND be there at the same time, AND be close enough to us, in outdoor air, and/or chlorinated water, again, extremely low....especially since about an hour is really all I can tolerate at the pool with my kids anyway lol. One problem I have is that Ohio isn't reporting recovered cases, that I have found. So what I have had to do is, every so often, go into the actual spreadsheet, and then run the math on cases that are a month or more out. So, sure, it's an estimate, but I think people still being infectious AND regularly being out and about is probably a super rare situation.
  9. Sure, I have no problem helping other folks feel better about it. Thats why I do it when I am at the store.
  10. looking like weather is going to postpone Yep, official....try again on Saturday.
  11. Much like asymptomatic carriers, levels of black ice are just a guess. In terms of weather, I would be making my decisions based on the actual weather conditions I could see. The more weather I can see, the more likely that dangerous conditions I can't see are present. I am not going to not go to the grocery store if it's 25*, but not snowing. But there could still be black ice on the road.
  12. It might very well do so, because the overall risk level changes.
  13. I consider myself very low low risk for catching Covid, as well as for having complications. I think my greatest exposure risk is actually coming from DH, who is back at work now (though he has never worked with the public.) People who aren't coughing, aren't sneezing and trying their dangdest to avoid small talk (I really didn't want to talk to people in the grocery line before covid lol) are producing so few respiratory droplets that the risk to others is already extremely low.
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