Well, I would make a lot of choices - not because I really regret anything or don't like my life as is (pretty happy with it in general) but I know how these choices have turned out so would want to try something else next time... I guess I might study biology - have always been quite interested in it but back then it never even occurred to me to go for a science. Not sure why. Or maybe something with tourism. Or archeology. Or maybe something with film or... Actually, I think I would go for something completely different. Focus less on school/studying and more on fun and maybe finding a husband...

Not sure what will happen in the fall but this is what is happening at my kids' public school in Germany right now: Seniors have been back in school for the last 2+ weeks. Juniors (and 4th graders) went back this week. 5th and 6th grade go back next week. The other years will start up after the next vacations in Mid-June (school year ends at the end of July). This is how our school handles the seniors: They only attend those classes they will have exams in (exams start next week), so 5 subjects per student (generally kids have about 12 subjects per week). Classes were split in half (no more than 15 kids max, generally around 10) and alternate (i.e. one half of the group starts with math and then has German and the other half the other way around). As only a few grades are back right now there are plenty of classrooms available. Right now the seniors have a total of 10 periods a week, spread over three days (Mon to Wed). Kids have to wear masks in public transportation and hallways etc. but not in the classroom. Desks have been moved apart and there isn't regular recess etc. As far as my 9th grader is concerned, I think he will probably start again in Mid-June; either every second week or 3 days per week. That's the only way they will have enough teachers/classrooms. My friend's daughter is a junior at another school. They have classes according to the regular schedule but are split in two classrooms. One has the teacher, the other kids watch via video.

I don't think looking at cases tells you much here as I believe Sweden doesn't test unless it is a severe case (not sure about the other countries). Deaths are Sweden 105 vs. Norway 23 and Denmark 65. Per million in Sweden it is 10 vx. Norway 4 and Denmark 11. I think it is too early to tell how this will develop (though it seems obvious that Sweden will have more cases/deaths than other countries if the don't limit people meeting). Of course it could still turn out that their approach is good/better in the long run.

As for the study done by Washington University (I think) someone quoted earlier which came up with a fairly low number of deaths and predicted the end of the pandemic in just a couple of months I read a fairly long twitter review that disagreed with the conclusions. Not with the conclusions per se but with the possible implication for real life. I think the main criticism was a) some mathematical stuff I didn't quite get but more importantly b) that the whole paper assumed social distancing measures similar to Wuhan (or at least close to them) which seems fairly unlikely at this point in the US. So they thought the conclusions made sense given the assumptions but that the assumptions were far too optimistic.

Well, I think it depends on what you mean by "vastly undercounting". I do think there are quite a number of unknown cases in Germany but I wouldn't call it a huge number. I would estimate (just a guess, nothing to back it up with) that there might be twice as many actual cases as known once. I seriously doubt there are 10 times as many (for example) because a) comparing death rates to other comparable countries and assuming the difference is mostly due to different percentage of tested cases it would mean that for example in the UK the number of undetected cases would be even larger (like 50x known cases) and b) there is a lot of testing/tracing in Germany (obviously, some clusters don't show up until someone gets seriously sick and there is a timing delay).

As far as testing in Germany is concerned, I am pretty sure they are not randomizing, Quite the opposite. I think they mainly test contacts of known cases or people with possible travel/contacts. However, they are testing quite a bit (I read something about 500k per week though I am not sure if that is correct) and I think it is not too difficult to get a test if you have a reasonable suspicion. A boy in my son's school had been to Italy over vacation and he got tested quickly (he maybe had a bit of a cold but definitely wasn't really sick as he returned to school after the negative results). Test took about 24 hours I think. The plan seems to be to seriously ramp up testing though. As far as the lower death rate is concerned: a) a lot of initial cases were in younger people as most got infected while skiing in Italy/Austria b) due to quite a bit of testing cases show up earlier in their cycle than in places where only seriously sick patients are tested (i.e. there is a delay before a new case turns serious/deadly) c) I think more testing/tracing makes it easier to stop some clusters (not really relevant to death rate unless this also means less high-risk people get infected) So I don't think German numbers are better than many other countries' due to better sampling etc. However, given the relationship of cases to deaths it seems less likely that there are huge numbers of unidentified cases (maybe x2 but seriously doubt x10 or similar)

Well, I still go out to the grocery store most days - I have two teenagers and no car so it is difficult to get enough food stored. We do have enough for about two weeks but I am keeping that in case one of us gets sick or the restrictions are tightened etc. There aren't any cases in our small town as far as I know so far, I really have little to no contact with anyone while shopping, and nobody in our family goes out otherwise (so highly unlikely we are infected yet). Of course none of us are high-risk either so if we did get sick it probably would be okay.

I know a lot of people here are interested in actual numbers/data so thought I would post the following for informational purposes. The numbers are for a specific (hard hit) area of Germany, posted on a fairly reliable news website, based on information by the Robert Koch Institut (kind of like the German CDC). As mentioned before, I think Germany has a very high test rate compared to many other countries (also saw some research about that) and I think data is quite reliable here (of course there are delays and errors but I doubt any intentional misstatements). Cases total: 8011 Deaths: 40 Currently in hospital: 443 ICU: 146 (of above 443) Ventilator: 121 (of above 146) ICU beds total: 6100 I believe the data is from 2/3 of the hospitals in the region. Not sure whether the others don't have (many) cases or if they need to be added. However, the relationship between the numbers shouldn't be affected either way.

I agree with a prior poster - the comparatively low number of deaths relative to cases is probably mostly due to early testing/contact tracing. I think the numbers for Germany are actually a good indication for how many actual cases some other countries might have. Right now on Worldometer Germany shows at around 25 k cases and almost 100 deaths. Obviously, not every infected person gets tested so let's assume there are at least 30k in Germany. Extrapolating from the around 400 deaths in the US it seems likely that there are at least 100 k cases in the US (for example). Obviously, there are still timing differences (i.e. many cases in Germany are quite "new" compared to cases e.g. in the US) and there is a timing lag as well so that is just a very broad guess. Still, it does give some indication- I don't think huge difference in general health / age are responsible for the difference. Obviously, once health care systems are over-stretched quality of care will suffer and death rate will rise but I don't think most countries are there yet.

Kind of sad but my life really hasn't changed much compared to normal even though everything here is pretty much locked down. Church has been canceled, only "essential" stores remain open, all leisure places are closed, and starting tonight you are only supposed to be out for essential business (work, shop, errands, exercise). Kids are home of course but mostly stay in their rooms. I always work from home so no big change there and generally my only outside activity is going to the store which I still do. Stores are looking better. There are still some empty spaces on the shelves but they change from day to day and there is plenty of stuff available.

I am pretty sure it has nothing to do with better/worse hospitals or a significant difference in age/health of population. My best guess is that Germany has been doing a lot of tests and tracing of contacts from the very beginning. I remember one case in which some young person without any reason to suspect Covid-19 was tested as a matter of routine and identified as infected. He was a student and had loads of contacts. Pretty sure they went ahead and isolated / tested all they could find. So maybe 20+ cases were found (I don't know numbers, just a guess). Many of these were probably just mild cases that might have not been identified at all. Even if some of them turn serious/lead to death there would be quite a delay between identification of a case very early on and possible death maybe 2+ weeks later (as opposed to only counting a case when someone shows up in the ER already very sick). So I think in the end the death rates of Germany and France should be fairly similar (provided enough people get tested). Of course more clusters can be stopped by early detection so possibly the total number can be kept down in Germany (or at least spread out over time) which might lead to lower death rates than in places with overburdened hospitals etc. (i.e. Italy). Obviously, that can change as sometimes clusters are identified too late even with quite a bit of testing.

As far as the death rate in Italy is concerned, I don't think it is because Italian hospitals are significantly worse and I definitely don't think it is because other countries have lied/stated the death rate on purpose too low. In my opinion the main reasons it is so hight are: - Average age of Italians is higher than in many other countries - Apparently they are running a lot of post-mortem-tests so identify cases that might be lumped under other causes instead - Pretty sure the number of infected is seriously understated (probably not on purpose). Last week Germany designated South Tyrol as a risk area. Italy complained as they claimed that there had been only a handful of cases there. However, a fairly large number of Germans that have returned from skiing trips to South Tyrol have since been diagnosed with Covid19 which seems to indicate that a lot more people in South Tyrol are infected that is known. I would assume the same is true for other areas.

Definitely getting closer here! Just got a message from kids' school. There is a possible case in older ds's class. His class has to stay home tomorrow and Wednesday. Test results are expected for Wednesday afternoon. If negative they go back on Thursday, if positive they will decide what to do (I assume close the whole school for two weeks). This is especially bothersome as he is a senior and supposed to sit for final exams in May (and this week and the next two he has tests that will also count for his final grade).

Yes it almost seems like it. However, the death rate for the US is going to look absolutely horrible. Not exactly a glowing endorsement either.

Well, I don't disagree with you that society is a problem. Of course noone should be losing their home etc. just because they are sick. I definitely agree that something should be done to help in such cases. Aside from basic decency it is also much cheaper for society/government to pay some people what they would have earned (presumably not that much anyway) than having to pay for dozens of additional infections. I also understand that it isn't easy and can lead to severe consequences for the individual. I really do BUT I still can't agree that it is okay to go to work in such a case. I also don't think it is okay to rob a bank because you can't pay your bills (even if through no fault of your own). I definitely think governments have to come up quickly with a clear rule on how to make it possible for people in such circumstances to stay home and to communicate the solution clearly.

A 7th case in Illinois. No travel and no connection to any known cases.

Like I said earlier, it seems to me that many/most countries hesitate to impose strict limitations/act decisively but then at a certain point it changes. Not sure exactly what/when that occurs but right now we can see it in Italy where a whole region is supposed to be locked off. I wonder whether the US will follow eventually?

So I have been thinking and to me it seems that what is happening in countries so far (thinking China/Iran/Italy) is that at first not that much is done to stop the spread. It looks like a mix of "won't happen here" (of course for China it was a bit different as it probably did take a while to realize what was going on) and "it won't be so bad" (i.e. the death rate isn't that high, we'll just get through it). But then something seems to change and lead countries to serious measures to stop/delay the virus. I think it is probably a combination of infections hitting close to home (e.g. knowing someone who is sick/in danger of serious illness) and the realization how overburdened the health care system is getting. I wonder if the same pattern will hold true in the future. So far not that much has been done in the US (or in most European countries) - will they also lock down cities, close schools for extended periods etc.?

Yes, I am sure it can be very difficult and I absolutely agree that legislation is needed to help people who are doing the right thing. I also can see someone slightly going against orders (as in I am doing a last run to the store or I am dropping of these packages etc.) though of course that is also not okay. But going to work in the hospitality industry after a positive result in a place that doesn't have wide-spread infection yet? That is just not okay.

Sorry, but no. I do understand how hard it might be to stay home without sick leave/pay (I work freelance and even here in Germany would not get any money if I don't work) and in a general scenario I would agree. If you have a bit of a cold you might still go in. If you don't know that you have anything worse you might go in. But if you have been tested as positive for COVID? There is NO excuse for this and there should be consequences (not so much to punish the patient but to discourage others from doing the same). In my opinion this is a case in which the public good trumps personal interest (though I do feel an emergency fund or similar should be set up to help people in this situation). Also, how would the person feel if going back to work and someone they worked with (and clearly infected) was to die? Wouldn't that be worse than losing a couple weeks of income?

I am pretty sure this is partly luck but mostly because there is quite aggressive testing here. The cases have gone up very fast because with carneval there were a lot of parties and a lot of people in Italy on vacation. However, as soon as a sick person is identified there seems to be a lot of contact tracing, people are then watched/tested and of course isolated (actually they are supposed to stay home as soon as they are possible contacts) so there is less spread. I know a couple of weeks ago a young man got some immunization shot and got really sick afterwards. At the hospital they tested for flu but also ran a COVID test even though the symptoms didn't quite match. They sent him back home (bad) but got him back in the hospital as soon as results were in. They traced a lot of contact persons (60?) and I think a fair number of them are now cases as well (though hopefully it ends with them). If they hadn't run the test he would have gone on to infect a fair number of others and the ones he already infected would have gone on to infect others etc... Of course not everyone is caught even so and mistakes are made. For example a bunch of students from my kids's school were in South Tyrol up till 3/2 on vacation. They went back to school on Monday as it was not considered a risk area. However, in the meantime many people returning from there have gotten sick and guidance has changed. They are now not allowed back next week (to make 14 days in total). If any of them get sick in the next couple of days they might already have infected others. Still, noone can predict the future and they seem fairly on top of it (if anyone does get sick I am sure they'll close the school).

Also, without testing it will be difficult to determine in how far people gain immunity after being exposed a first time. Knowing that would be helpful as for example people who have already had the disease could work with sick people with less worry.

And let's not forget that there is a significant delay built in - i.e. people dying now probably were infected about 2 weeks ago. They (and all the other cases from then with less severe illness) went on to infect several others who again probably have infected others since then. So with more wide-spread testing the US number would likely look pretty daunting.

I can|t believe the US is just not testing so the numbers look bad (that's what it seems like). Just looking at the number of deaths (and assuming a fairly consistent death rate) it seems pretty obvious that more than a few cases are being missed: South Korea has around 6700 cases and 44 deaths Italy has around 4600 cases and 197 deaths Switzerland has around 200 cases and 1 death US has around 330 cases and (I think) 17 deaths

So sorry you are feeling sick. It's difficult to know what to do. I think it isn't that likely to be Covid19 if you haven't travelled/don't live in one of the more impacted areas, especially as the symptoms aren't that typical (how old are your kids?). But there is no way to know and with so little testing going on it is impossible to say how close other cases are to you. I think for now I would try to stay as comfortable as possible (i.e. do what you normally would do to treat a flu or similar), try to limit exposure for other people as much as possible, and see a doctor right away if breathing problems get worse. Hope all of you recover soon!