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Danae

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  1. There’s a nice chart floating around Twitter that breaks down jurisdiction by type of crime and whether the victim and accused are native or non-native. Those are the factors that determine whether responsibility for prosecuting crime on reservation land is tribal, state, or federal. If I run across it again I’ll link to it. Edit: I think the progressive victory has less to do with this specific case and more to do with the precedent that ignoring a treaty for decades doesn’t invalidate it. The SC said that since Congress never officially repudiated this treaty it’s still in effect.
  2. And if you really can’t handle the rap you can listen to Weird Al’s polka version. He leaves out the profanity too, except “bastard” and “whore” in the first line.
  3. I mean, I'm "running statistics tests" by using the functions in OpenOffice spreadsheets. But I did consult with my husband who does data quality stuff for a living. He's going to send it to a couple epidemiologists he works with.
  4. Using the data from The Covid Tacking Project, data range March 15 - July 9, the closest correlation between %+ and daily deaths is a 13 day lag. The correlation is .9409 and I really want someone to check my numbers because that is ridiculous and if it holds up the fact that none of the actual professional statisticians tweeting about CV-19 has noticed this is nuts.
  5. I’m headed out the door to a socially distanced meeting soon, but I’ll try it when I get home, or tomorrow if it goes late. The group is tired of Zoom so we’re doing outside, masked, bring your own lawn chair. It’s the first time I've looked forward to a committee meeting in ages.
  6. I just ran correlation coefficients with different lag times. On MN data the strongest correlation is at 14 days. .825 correlation between 7-day average positivity rate and 7-day average daily deaths 2 weeks later.
  7. It’s true with MN state level data too, only here it’s x2. Over 90 days it’s been predictive: seven day average positivity rate is 3%, seven day average of deaths two weeks later is 6. Positivity rate is 5%, average deaths/day two weeks later is 10. I’ve been feeling good because our positivity rate has been stable for the last two weeks, but it’s just started to climb. 😞
  8. And that is exactly why parents demand the sibling exception. Having a new driver doesn’t reduce the parent’s driving load much if they can’t drive their siblings to activities.
  9. Yard dice. We got a set of these early in quarantine and they’ve been a ton of fun. We mostly play Yahtzee and Ship, Captain, Crew, but you can play any dice game.
  10. For the first six months NO other teens/kids in the car without a parent, not even siblings. The data on this is very clear, and the only reason restricted license provisions make exceptions for siblings is that parents don’t support them otherwise. New situations are encountered with a parent first, when possible — night driving, winter driving, downtown driving, freeway driving . . . anything that wasn’t practiced during the permit period is off-limits until you’ve practiced it with a parent in the car. Keep your phone charged and family sharing and location services enabled. Driving privileges can be revoked for attitude, because attitude affects driving safety. No driving mad, and if you’re too tired to get up in the morning you’re too tired to drive. ANY time you feel unsafe driving pull over and call a parent. Tired, sick, emotionally volatile, weather conditions, road conditions, heavy traffic, whatever. Drugs or alcohol, obviously.
  11. I can’t remember where I read it, but way back when all this started I read an article written by an epidemiologist that stated that “herd immunity” is a term that was coined to talk about the levels of vaccination required to protect a population and that it can not exist absent widespread vaccination. Mainly because new people are always being born. So either you stamp out the disease to the degree that the new generations of people aren’t immune but don’t catch it or it becomes a childhood illness that nearly everyone gets. The only way people don’t get it because of herd immunity is if the new cohorts of people being born acquire immunity without having the disease, i.e. through vaccination.
  12. Even most of the time health officials were saying “not airborne” they were trying to make a technical distinction between carried on droplets and airborne on its own. Which was again a massive messaging mistake because the general public doesn’t care about that technical distinction. When a lay person hears “not airborne” that sounds like you can’t get it from breathing in and can’t spread it by breathing out.
  13. We usually meet up with friends in the Dells twice a year. I have been swamped with emails from every place we’ve ever stayed advertising specials. Not happening.
  14. Danae

    Steak

    Don’t get a ribeye for him. I served ribeye once to my won’t-touch-fat son and he got so agitated trying to cut around the fat that he didn’t enjoy the meal and ended up leaving the table early.
  15. Danae

    Steak

    I wouldn’t do this for a special dinner, but if you live near a target that has grocery, their chuck tender steaks are actually quite nice for steak sandwiches or a small dinner portion. They come in a pack of four 4oz steaks for $8. I’ve also gotten whole chuck tenders and cut these steaks myself. For a “real” steak dinner I use ribeye or filet.
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