never mind

Case report of myocarditis following mRNA vaccine, with relevant stats at the time it was submitted (may be out of date already). Also describes symptoms and test results, negative results for other viruses. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1930043321003289 Its interesting that this person had similar symptoms after the first dose, just not as intense. Might be something to think about if a young man has some chest pain, chills, after the first dose? WHO has a note up about the investigation of this side effect. https://www.who.int/news/item/26-05-2021-gacvs-myocarditis-reported-with-covid-19-mrna-vaccines

Yes, there are some questions about whether the lower BSL level they were using for these experiments was appropriate, and how safe the precautions were even for the field work. And because many cases are mild or asymptomatic, there is a good chance if might not be immediately noticed if this virus infected a lab worker. I know nothing about this publication, but I thought this was a good interview laying out the perspective of Richard Ebright, one of the signers of the Open Letter calling for an investigation upthread. https://www.independentsciencenews.org/commentaries/an-interview-with-richard-ebright-anthony-fauci-francis-collins-systematically-thwarted/ Sounds like this whole thing goes deep, deep into history of research, politics, US and foreign institutions.

For me, it’s the workout I don’t feel like doing. 😁

Public transportation, of course, and I have seen it but totally forgot. ☺️ Bless them for putting themselves out there for so many months. I do find them uncomfortable and distracting at times, so I have a lot of sympathy for people that have had to do that for so long. The only thing that I would be concerned about while driving with a mask is the fogging for someone who wears glasses or sunglasses. And you could have everyone else who isn’t driving wear one.

Oh, I see. I don’t think it is semantics, but a question of what is the risk of a certain group. I’ve been seeing things about this for a few weeks, and wherever mentioned, the cases are in the same age group of concern. Not to beat a dead horse, but when the clots after J &J were first reported, the reports were that it was about 1 in a million. But if you are a 30 year old woman, your individual risk of a clot seems to work out to substantially higher than that, so if you are that person, the one in a million is meaningless.

No one ever said it was only teens. It is young people. They haven’t even vaccinated 12-15 yet, only 16 and up. Most of the cases were in men under 30, as stated in the news reports, so it is not 62 out of 5 million.

Well, the people that analyze these things do, I trust, consider these things when crunching the numbers. One would hope. Maybe that is one of the reasons these things take time. They may not have perfect numbers for normal rates of things in every age group and for a certain time period. And it has been pointed out that there could be some other virus involved, something seasonal. You could also wonder whether the problem is more likely to occur if you get a vaccine at the time of a recent Covid infection. Maybe normal immune response + both doses is too much stimulation for a young person. I didn’t say it doesn’t occur in some people. I said it does occur, rarely. Maybe you meant that it seems to occur at about the same rate as it does after other viruses, but I thought you meant something more than that. The article is a response to the idea that started early on, I think based on early MRI data of sicker patients, that it happened in a large percentage of people with Covid, and that it could be a problem even for young athletes with mild or asymptomatic infection. This was part of the reason for caution and delays restarting certain sports, and for those pediatric guidelines that said every child should be screened for problems after Covid; initially there were some that suggested EKG’s for children with very mild cases of Covid. Even though the idea was counterbalanced with other studies, the idea that it was a fairly common problem persisted somewhat in the public space. If a child already has a cardiologist, that is a different level of consideration. I, too, would have a higher level of concern for a child with a pre-existing cardiac issue.

It was reported by Israeli public broadcasting and retweeted a bunch. I don’t know the details so we’ll see. Whatever the number, the denominator used for the rate wouldn’t be five million, it is whatever number of people in the relevant age group are a week or more past the second dose, with cases probably separated further by gender.

I’m not married to the idea that the vaccine is for sure doing something bad, or that if it is, it is higher than what happens with Covid. Maybe it isn’t. Maybe it turns out to be a wash, but we still vaccinate for lots of other reasons. All I think about it is that I don’t know, and I am glad they are taking all of it seriously and in balance so that we can all have information to make decisions. The chance of contracting Covid is also lower all the time, so I don’t think there is as much of a rush to finish two doses while they are still figuring it out. Others will see it differently, have children at higher risk, or are planning lots of travel, and might think it’s imprudent to think about some potential, still unclear side effect for even a second. The rate that I saw for Israel was reported as the rate of hospitalized for myocarditis after vaccines. (But waiting to see what numbers come out in writing). They have symptoms and signs and go to the doctor or hospital.

Was masking while driving ever recommended? I mean, I did see some people doing it, and I think it’s mostly because they were in the habit of keeping it on all day and not touching it, but I didn’t think it was widely done. I’d driven other people in my car when I needed to, but cracking windows when possible seemed like the better choice than driving with my mask on.

So you’re picking out mention of one study that cited 1%, which is based only on MRI of student athletes who had mild or asymptomatic infection. And cardiologists who have been speaking about this note we don’t know the significance of something that only shows up because you did a test, with no symptoms. If you read the whole article, many other, larger, studies showed rates much lower than that. The vaccine cases are young men who had symptoms and signs of myocarditis within a few days after the second dose. They were only evaluated because they were ill. Now if you want to do a study where you do MRIs of a bunch of teens and twenties, after the second dose of vaccine and see what shows up, who knows, maybe you would find more “myocarditis,”, or maybe not, but that is what you would have to do to compare rates of that particular 1% result.

A retrospective study on symptoms of long Covid in adults. Overall, risk is 5% higher than controls from 2020, and 1.65% higher than following other viral illnesses. https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1098

yes, but is that only because there was so much press about it from elsewhere first? As with the clotting issue, where the EU, that was not even giving the JNJ vaccine yet, noticed the issue and reported on it first. Not saying US officials would never have done anything, but just that it seems slow. Or maybe it’s just a slight difference in philosophy, where US is more cautious about saying something that might affect vaccination rates. People in the US military noticed it last month. What I saw from Israel said that in their country, they think so far it looks higher than background rate. But I do note that we haven’t had as many second doses here.

I note again, as with JNJ, that the US seems to be the last to acknowledge these things, only after several other countries are announcing they are looking into an issue. I find this concerning, and don’t know whether it is problems with our reporting system (such as delays), or the people responsible for monitoring being limited and overstretched, or what. But I am taking that into consideration when I hear reporting about what our officials say about events like these, and how long we might need to wait to make sure a problem is noticed. Some of it here might be though, that as of a few weeks ago, most of the teens vaccinated in the US had not even had their second dose yet. And then there is a delay for symptoms and reporting. It sounds like Israel was ahead of us in vaccinating young people.

The Covid myocarditis thing is a myth that grew out of some shoddy science and bad reporting. https://www.statnews.com/2021/05/14/setting-the-record-straight-there-is-no-covid-heart/ While it still occurs rarely, we don’t know yet whether Covid or the vaccine will be most associated with myocarditis in this age group. It is still being investigated. No reason to freak out, but also no reason to blow it off. Saying it resolves, okay, but the possibility of heart muscle damage that gives you some time in the ICU and limits your exercise for months is not something to downplay in a young person. There were two deaths in Israel. There was a report on Israeli news that their ministry of health is estimating the rate is at 1 in 3,000-6,000. They are considering advising only one dose for age 12-15. https://www.timesofisrael.com/to-beat-side-effects-israel-considers-giving-teens-just-1-covid-vaccine-dose/

That whole post reminds me why I stopped reading anything from Circe a few years ago. A few mostly-true things, wrapped up in a bunch of other stuff that seems arrogant and oversimplified. I wonder who they are reaching these days.

MIS-C is so rare. Even if it’s been undercounted, it is too rare to conclude anything from the trials on a few thousand children. There are calculations to figure out how many participants you need to detect certain outcomes. The numbers they have used and are using are much too low to detect even one case of very rare events.

Wow, one of the references for that article shows that antibody levels were about 10 times as high in the children with MIS-C. Could this not be as much of a concern now that we know what the antibody levels after vaccine are for age 12-15? I don’t think you can directly compare the numbers, but the pediatric specialists must have some insight. I saw a chart comparing average antibody levels measured after all the vaccines as well as natural infection, and as we’ve been told, it struck me that a few of the vaccines got the levels up higher than natural infection generally does. And levels are higher for 12-15 than for 16-25, but not 10 times as high, 1.5 to 2 times as high.

There was a CDC model that estimated 100 million back in the fall. CDC has some seroprevalence data on their site. You can look at each state as well. Antibodies aren’t going to be a perfect measure, and this says it is a commercial lab survey study. When I click on “about the study,” nothing happens, so I don’t know if it is a planned sampling, or is it just people who decided to get their antibodies tested? https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#national-lab

Do you remember where you saw this? I shared this article that mentioned the theoretical possibility, but I haven’t seen anything else and would like to read more if there’s anything.

I’m not sure if this is the predominant thinking, actually, from what I’ve heard. I’m not trying to be argumentative, but the author of the article and site you linked, though a doctor, is not the kind of expert I am talking about. His primary goal is to shut down the quackery, and that seems to be about it. Anyway, Covid wasn’t a casedemic, that we agree on. If we kept on testing asymptomatic people with this much population immunity and recommending restrictions based solely on that, then I think it is possible we could transition to a “casedemic.” But the US is thankfully not going that way.

I wanted to add that if I knew that someone in a smaller group I was part of was in this category, still in danger and not feeling comfortable attending without certain precautions, I would be happy to put on a mask or meet outside for a while longer so that they could come. That’s a little different than trying to keep everyone wearing them at Walmart for another few months. Last week I went to a store where masks were optional for the vaccinated. So my children wore them and I did, too, because they are my kids and when they wear them and I’m with them, I will do the same.

I have a hunch that it is going to be a thing, because the cases are clustered within a few days after the second dose. Putting it out to providers may result in more cases being reported so that they can get a better handle on how many cases there are and whether it is connected. I posted about it probably a month ago when there were articles about Israel and the US military, but a couple of weeks ago, the European Medical Agency was looking into it, and there were reports from Italy and somewhere else in the EU, maybe France. What I would love to know is why this wasn’t discussed by the committee in approving the EUA for 12-15. They knew about it then. Even parents just being aware that it was being discussed would have been good. Yes, the casedemic term is a falsity. However, there are many credible doctors, experts in their fields, who were noting the lack of infectiousness of certain PCR results (including Dr. Fauci) from last summer. They were calling for the numbers to be reported for better interpretation, and one reason was so that people were not unnecessarily isolated for 10 days. I don’t understand why that didn’t seem to to happen to any great extent. Some change comes slowly, I guess. Cant break apart these quotes. 😕 ETA and now the one I replied to is gone.- A lot of public school refugees are wanting the same thing (someone else to teach the kids five days a week for “homeschooling”) even with no vaccine exemption issues. I don’t really understand it.

Yes, this is the position of some people. It’s fine to take outlet for your frustrations on a message board or in your own home, but be publicly gracious. But there are a number of posts that do indeed read to me as though they are saying all of us should still wear masks, and that the CDC is wrong. Maybe they don’t read that way to you, because they are read through the filter of you and others with your more reasonable view. Many on this board seem to have been much more cautious than public health guidelines ever recommended in this country, and that’s fine, but you can’t expect others to hold that same perspective. I think it’s a minority of people, for example, that have not had their minor children interact with any friends without masks and other precautions since last March. It is hard for me to imagine requiring (rather than encouraging) that of most teens 14-15+, or thinking that just because parents tell them to do this, that they are actually being as careful as you think they are when you can’t see them. CDC is cautious and slow. They could have made this recommendation months ago. They were very slow on schools and outdoor advice, and other things, according some of the experts. Not only do many people not follow their advice on runny eggs, unpasteurized cheese, alcohol, exercise, and many other things, but even on infectious disease, I saw something about their Zika recommendations and wonder if everyone in the US follows it or even knows about it. https://www.cdc.gov/zika/prevention/sexual-transmission-prevention.html They recommend, for example, sexual precautions (abstinence or condoms) for pregnant women and their partners when traveling anywhere where Zika has ever been diagnosed, which includes the US (so would include everyone that lives here), most of the rest of N and S America, and France. I am sure we could find other examples where people have no idea they are not following CDC guidelines in some area, or they do know and don’t care, because it is a matter of personal choice. ——————- I do have a lot of sympathy for those with health concerns that mean they are at much higher risk and that their vaccination may not protect them. But doesn’t this need to be calibrated to pre-pandemic risks? People with certain conditions/meds have to be careful all of the time, not just with Covid, and probably aren’t as protected from other vaccines, either. Cases of Covid are now below the levels seen in a mild flu season, and no one expected special precautions pre-2020, even though people were certainly contracting flu at group events. And flu vaccines are notorious for their low levels of effectiveness. We have been through a terrible time with a new infectious disease, but now that it is waning, we have to get back to some sort of balance.