Jump to content

Menu

hopeallgoeswell

Members
  • Posts

    491
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by hopeallgoeswell

  1. Well, every year the flu vaccine has a varying effectiveness and even within each year, the effectiveness varies by strain. So some years you have a low (10%) overall effectiveness and some years you have a high (60%) overall effectiveness. Even if the influenza vaccine was forcibly injected into every single person, we would still be leagues away from vaccine-induced herd immunity. In my opinion, going in that direction, the only one winning from that is the manufacturer. It also has the highest injury compensation from VICP, which is funded by excise taxes collected on each vaccine, even though we are are under 50% uptake for adults. If there is a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, it will be interesting to see how it pans out. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/past-seasons-estimates.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/2018-2019.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/trends/age-groups.htm
  2. The percentage necessary for vaccine-induced immunity is different than that of natural immunity. I believe the percentage for wild measles before the vaccine was introduced was around 60-70%. The necessary percentage of people to take the current vaccine to induce herd immunity for measles is almost 100% due to primary and secondary failure rates (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3905323/#!po=3.12500), and even then we are still seeing outbreaks in fully vaccinated populations. One study on the difference between seroprevalence of wild virus and vaccine: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32028593/. Also, in 2017, there was a study done on how titers aren't really effected by a subsequent vaccination (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28968738/?from_single_result=28968738&expanded_search_query=28968738), so vaccinating people every few years from birth to death wouldn't necessarily be all that helpful. Studies have shown that children with adequate vitamin A levels rarely have severe outcomes for measles, though. In order for the vaccine to eradicate measles, we need a different vaccine. Another thing to consider, some vaccines, like diphtheria and pertussis, don't prevent colonization and transmission, but those are bacteria and not a virus, so ??? All of this is to say that if we need 50-60% (???) natural immunity for herd immunity to be in place for the wild SARS-CoV-2 virus, the percentage of people who must get the vaccine for herd immunity may be higher. It would also need to prevent transmission, not just make someone asymptotic/mild symptoms if they are infected. Hopefully, along with vaccine research, we will see more complete studies on the protective properties of vitamin D, other immune boosters, and different pharmaceuticals.
  3. My kids have always been homeschooled and don't go to events that don't include me or a trusted adult they feel very comfortable with. Now that they are older, when they go to sleepovers or to the park around the corner, I just give them my cell phone since we have a landline they can reach me or I can reach them on. My oldest is the only one with a phone, and she got it for her 17th birthday. All of my kids, minus the 17 yo now, use my cell phone for texting friends. If they had been away from me during the day, they would have had a basic phone with a few pre-programmed numbers when they were old enough to use it.
  4. Did the governor give benchmarks for going to the next phase and benchmarks for backtracking to the previous phase? I found his plans for a risk assessment dashboard (https://www.governor.wa.gov/news-media/inslee-rolls-out-covid-19-risk-assessment-dashboard-data) but can't seem to find any metrics for basing movements on. I know he said testing and tracking need to be increased, but I haven't seen how asymptomatic people who aren't being tested fit into the overall projections. That being said, I don't see much of anything happening in WA state before fall, at the earliest, and maybe not even then.
  5. What if over 50% of people vote for homeschooling to be illegal because it is believed to be harmful to children, and if you don't put your kids in government schools, officials will come to take your children away and place them into foster care? Do I have to wait until the next election to vote them out of office and get new laws in place?
  6. I think that people who live in countries where the government has outlawed guns, or severely restricted types and overall access, and where "the government knows best," culturally cannot understand why most Americans protect the Second Amendment. If you look through the past 100 years, you'll see dictators who first took away their citizens' right to own meaningful weapons and then killed hundreds of thousands to millions of people. Without the Second Amendment, we cannot protect our other liberties defined by the other amendments. Benjamin Franklin is attributed to having said, "A Republic, if you can keep it." A republic protects the rights of the individual, as opposed to a democracy where majority, however marginal, rules. How does one protect their individual rights with flowers or flags or a poster board? How do I protect my daughters if someone breaks into my house? Hopefully get to a phone, call the police, and wait for someone else with a gun to protect us? If my government tries to forcibly take away my liberties, do I ask them politely to go away? Americans take guns to protests as a symbol, to remind the government officials that they work for the People, not because if the officials don't vote the way the protesters want, shots will be fired. Ronald Reagan said, "“Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn't pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same, or one day we will spend our sunset years telling our children and our children's children what it was once like in the United States where men were free.” If American teachers and media are teaching this generation that "guns are bad" and that the government will protect us, I hate to think of what kind of country my grandchildren will grow up in. Edited to add: The saying "Hope for the best, prepare for the worst" is probably the easiest way to sum 2A up. You hope you won't have to protect yourself, your family, and your neighbors from a tyrannical government, but you better have the ability to do so if the need arises.
  7. Every page of every book (!) or just the covers?
  8. I have a non-enamel from Lodge that I use indoors several times a week. I follow the basic care instructions: seasoned it correctly, no soap, and don't let it soak for too long. I love everything about it...except for the weight!
  9. My governor (WA) does not appear to be opening anything any time soon, and the libraries have been closed since mid-March. The Libby Overdrive library for my county is decent, so we've been using it and just reading borrowed books on Kindle. Do you have an ebook program in your library? You could preview and then make a decision to purchase or not? My plan for the fall semester is to use the library ebooks and scrounge to buy all other books that I need the kids to have. I *love* real books, but right now, I am going online for nonfiction things and getting ebooks for fiction. Is there anything helpful online for gardening? (I have a brown thumb, so I don't know!)
  10. Might slightly higher numbers that don't overwhelm the hospitals help with achieving herd immunity faster? I am just wondering about the places that have had stringent lockdowns. What happens when cases get low, people are allowed to go out, there is a spike, restrictions are tightened back up...lather, rinse, repeat...until ????? As opposed to somewhere else, like Sweden who has had few restrictions and looks like they will have 50% immunity sooner rather than later?
  11. What percentage do you consider "lots" to be? Keeping in mind that these numbers are for people who were 1. sick enough to get a tested (asymptomatic and mild/moderate cases were not likely to be included in March) and 2. tested positive: "Hospitalization rates increased with age, with a rate of 0.3 in persons aged 0–4 years, 0.1 in those aged 5–17 years, 2.5 in those aged 18–49 years, 7.4 in those aged 50–64 years, and 13.8 in those aged ≥65 years." Also, "...89.3% had one or more underlying conditions." https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm For some sort of comparison: "Our estimates of hospitalizations and mortality associated with the 2018–2019 influenza season continue to demonstrate how serious influenza virus infection can be. We estimate, overall, there were 490,600 hospitalizations and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 season. More than 46,000 hospitalizations occurred in children (aged <18 years); however, 57% of hospitalizations occurred in older adults aged ≥65 years. Older adults also accounted for 75% of influenza-associated deaths..." So about 32% of hospitalizations were in the 19-64 age range. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html In 2017, 160,201 people died of lower respiratory illness and 55,672 from pneumonia and influenza (Table B). https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_09-508.pdf And yes, I do know that influenza isn't covid and we have better knowledge and treatments and a semi-effective vaccine for influenza, but I am comparing two respiratory illnesses that get spread similarly. People/government officials/media have not previously demanded everyone wear a mask and then shamed everyone for not wearing masks or telling non-mask wearers that they were directly responsible for hospitalizing a forty-something mom of three with hypertension. Maybe it's just people on this forum, because I'm not seeing it in any of my widely-varied friend groups, but people have jumped off the deep end with their confirmation bias and blinders.
  12. I am in a little Washington town about 60 miles from Seattle. The first week the schools were closed and the next week when SIP orders were given was pretty quiet. After that, though, people have been out and about. Any store that has been deemed "necessary" by the governor and is open has a good number of people in it, especially older people. The past two weeks or so the total number has been increasing. Even though fishing has been outlawed, I'm sure some are still doing it to feed their families. People are walking and biking and kids are out playing with friends. I was talking with a hair stylist yesterday. It took her a while to get unemployment (over a month) because of red tape, and she's not able to get any help for her business. If she can't pay for her chair, she loses it. I asked her if she is ready to start working again. She said most definitely, but she is afraid the governor is going to extend the shutdown past May 4. I was talking to another business owner who has had a 50% drop in income. She can't pay her rent and the building owner isn't being very flexible. Kicking a renter out of a business space is easier for the owner than kicking a renter out of a residence is for a homeowner. People here are ready to get back to work. We have more data now than we did 6 weeks ago and the numbers are not nearly as bad as originally predicted, especially in areas with high testing of anyone/antibody testing.
  13. This isn't just to you, StellaM; yours was just the easiest to quote. Only people who have symptoms should stay home? Illnesses are often spread before someone is symptomatic or from asymptomatic people to others all the time. There are numerous studies in medical journals that substantiate this. Would it be helpful if there was an easy, inexpensive, fast test to check for all illnesses before people left their homes? Everyone of all ages would have to have a device to show that they were free of all diseases and would have the proof necessary to enter any space. That would protect people with inadequate immune systems. Or we as a society could put more energy and funds into how to optimize people's immune systems? We could focus more on how to prevent chronic illnesses and put more emphasis on healing people's immune systems instead of putting on band-aids, like drugs. I know that, at least in America, focusing on building a robust immune system is not a popular option. There is too much junk for caloric intake, too many stressors, too few opportunities for exercise, and too many drugs that are pushed as quick-fixes. I guess I am just trying to point out that if someone is only focusing on symptomatic people as "bad" then he/she is missing a large asymptomatic population that is also "bad." I don't know how we overcome that.
  14. In the U.S., part of the stimulus bill was for the increase in unemployment payouts. The halt of evictions is to keep people from getting evicted (which, in normal times, is a long, expensive process for the homeowner) in the event a person lost their job and unemployment payouts were not enough to cover normal monthly costs. I agree that people who have not been laid off or had their hours greatly reduced due to mandatory business shut downs should not have been given any part of the $2,000,000,000,000. But I also think that a lot of that stimulus bill was unwarranted and now future generations will be paying dearly for it.
  15. "Give me a fever, and I can cure any disease.” Hippocrates I have read that pediatricians, at least my kids' doctor and the ones I listen to on podcasts, are leaning towards not treating fevers because they are beneficial.
  16. If the NY antibody testing numbers that were released today are echoed by other hard-hit areas, and the death rate is closer to 0.5% or lower and not 6% or higher, what should states do with that?
  17. Untreated would be the control group. Using a drug on an individual or group outside of a study might have good outcomes, but no one can say anything with any certainty about what caused the outcome, could be chance or confounding variables or that the drug is actually efficacious at treating the symptoms. If doctors just throw drugs at an illness and we see a pattern that one is promising, we still can't say that it's effective, but we would have anecdotal evidence that might lead to a study being done (treatment v. control).
  18. With no control groups, you can't tell if it's the treatment that is aiding recovery or something else. Studies that have no placebo controls don't give much useful interpretation of the data/treatment.
  19. "Self-reported vaccination for the current season was associated with a trend (P < 0.10) toward higher viral shedding in fine-aerosol samples; vaccination with both the current and previous year’s seasonal vaccines, however, was significantly associated with greater fine-aerosol shedding in unadjusted and adjusted models (P < 0.01). In adjusted models, we observed 6.3 (95% CI 1.9–21.5) times more aerosol shedding among cases with vaccination in the current and previous season compared with having no vaccination in those two seasons. Vaccination was not associated with coarse-aerosol or NP shedding (P > 0.10). The association of vaccination and shedding was significant for influenza A (P = 0.03) but not for influenza B (P = 0.83) infections (Table S4)." https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5798362/
  20. Is there anything in English that points to the false positive/negative rates of this test?
  21. Pittsburgh Vaccine: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32249203 I am calling this Lots-of-hands-in-the-pie Vaccine: https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/03/30/hhs-accelerates-clinical-trials-prepares-manufacturing-covid-19-vaccines.html The complete lack of liability is concerning, especially since these vaccines are being fast-tracked, I'm not sure as to whether they have placebo-controlled studies, and they might be government-mandated: https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/04/15/2020-08040/amendment-to-declaration-under-the-public-readiness-and-emergency-preparedness-act-for-medical A vaccine and a "tattoo" to show you got the vaccine all in one? It doesn't seem too far off, scientifically-speaking. https://stm.sciencemag.org/content/11/523/eaay7162 (Full paper: https://sci-hub.tw/10.1126/scitranslmed.aay7162)
  22. I don't want to turn this into a vaccine thread because, in my experience, not many can speak civilly, but if people are wanting mandatory vaccines for covid-19 in order for people to be able to leave their houses, I guess it's going to be discussed at some point. For pertussis: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2013/11/whooping-cough-vaccine-does-not-stop-spread-disease-lab-animals https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24277828/ It's hard to find any studies, favorable or not, about how effective a specific vaccine is for preventing the spread from person to person. Vaccine studies are not placebo controlled, concomitant, or longitudinal; they just look at if it makes antibody titers. That might be why we only see the flaws in a vaccine after it's been in circulation for a few decades. Measles: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/article-abstract/619215 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3905323/ Possibly mumps, though as powerful as corporations are, I doubt this will go anywhere. If you search, there are more occurrences of mumps outbreaks in populations with very high vaccination rates, similar to measles paradox. https://www.syracuse.com/health/2017/11/su_mumps_outbreak_whistleblowers_say_vaccine_ineffective.html The influenza vaccine is known for not being very effective, but it's mandated in some career fields and now in some places for kids over 2 years in order to go to daycare/school. If I remember correctly, this vaccine decreases symptoms to mild or asymptomatic, so does it prevent the spread? We always hear the number 95% when talking about herd immunity, but the adult population has never been any where near that. Some of the more recent vaccines that kids are getting now have incredibly low uptake in the adult population. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/imz-managers/coverage/adultvaxview/pubs-resources/NHIS-2017.html#trends-coverage New vaccines that are rushed have possible unforeseen consequences. My friend lost her baby because of this. https://childrenshealthdefense.org/news/cdc-study-shows-7-7-fold-greater-odds-miscarriage-influenza-vaccine/ And then there is the underreporting of vaccine adverse events. https://digital.ahrq.gov/sites/default/files/docs/publication/r18hs017045-lazarus-final-report-2011.pdf There are more studies if you look for them. It definitely isn't a black and white issue.
  23. Do you know if the any of the vaccines are being tested for person-to-person transmission or efficacy rates? A few of the vaccines we have now only protect the recipient (mild symptoms or asymptomatic if the person does contract it) and don't prevent the spread or are so infective that even if 100% of the population was vaccinated, we couldn't reach the 95% immunity necessary to protect the community relying only in the vaccine.
  24. Thank you for posting that. I have seen it. Is that not myopic, though? Are those numbers going to carry over every day through next year? The next decade? Will covid-19 deaths always outpace all other causes? People acquire immunity to viruses and bacteria or the human race would be extinct, right? Things that look bleak in the here and now seem to look different after we get to the end and look at the big picture. Right now, the big picture is being ignored, which is understandable because some people are in the trenches and just trying to survive. The blinders are on and we are looking right in front of us at only one factor. I really hope Sweden doesn't cave and initiate the same lock down as everyone else; it would be beneficial for the world to have some controls so we can see, retrospectively, if locking whole countries down for months was the only efficient way to handle the virus.
×
×
  • Create New...