ieta_cassiopeia
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Everything posted by ieta_cassiopeia
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Where Should The Boys Attend Highschool?
ieta_cassiopeia replied to Gil's topic in High School and Self-Education Board
Gil's Academy Developing Gentlemen with Erudite Tuition? -
Remediate math--high school junior
ieta_cassiopeia replied to sbgrace's topic in High School and Self-Education Board
Would it be possible to go through MUS again as clearly-labelled "review" once or twice a week, while continuing with whichever other maths will most help your son do what he's going to do next (or, if there aren't any particularly important other subjects for his future, whichever maths he thinks sounds the most interesting?) That way, there's a sense of progression and a sense of underpinning at the same time. In community college and college, your son will probably be advised to review his books and lecture materials multiple times to prepare for exams, whichever subject he does, so you can call the review "study skills - where you get to be ahead of many other students because lots of them don't learn why this is a good idea before college" if calling that part "maths" is likely to cause a rebellion. Plus, doing it that way, you can fold in other lessons about effective study as and when you think of them, without having to artificially create a study opportunity. After all, MUS has videos as well as text to broaden the possible range of study skills to practice. -
Where Should The Boys Attend Highschool?
ieta_cassiopeia replied to Gil's topic in High School and Self-Education Board
Gils Advanced Diploma Group with Eye-Opening Technology Also, early proposal for if you end up doing college at home: Gils University of Bettering Brains with Incredibly Novel Studies (GUBBINS) -
As the item I quoted said, outside the USA, the initial data did not support 2-dose J&J over the 1-dose version. Had it done so, J&J would have offered it as an option to Britain (since they did one of the initial Phase IIIs in Britain), because why say no to free additional money? The first study protocol for ENSEMBLE 2's second attempt at Phase III (without which it could not have begun Phase III attempt 2) didn't exist until December 18 2020, so it couldn't possibly have started in November (I went with February as that was when the second Phase III for ENSEMBLE 2 started in the UK). Note that ENSEMBLE (for the single-dose version) also had two attempts at Phase III in those places where approval was not granted on the basis of the first one (the UK accepted it pending paperwork that then took several more months to complete, but not everywhere else did). It is hardly surprised J&J would object to not being allowed to market a vaccination option it had previously been permitted to use, when the threshold it was required to meet was still met by that dose regimen. Especially when the threshold has not been officially raised. There might be arguments about whether J&J makes more money from 1-dose than 2-dose, but J&J is bound to make more money if both choices are available to it, rather than only one.
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I cannot speak for the rest of the world, but J&J was seen as 1-dose in the UK because J&J met the criteria to be a valid COVID-19 vaccine (above 50%) with one dose, but their 2-dose regimen had such a small increase in effectiveness on the test that J&J knew it had no chance of getting the two-dose through the NICE value-for-money protocol. I can't find the exact study that was UK-specific for the initial ENSEMBLE 2 study (I seem to remember it got 71% versus 1-dose's 66% there), but the J&J press release indicates that on the first Phase III trial, their vaccine globally got 75% overall efficiency for 1-dose and 2-dose alike. The 20-percentage-point difference was only found in the USA site of the trial. Since that gap didn't appear in the rest of the world, countries that don't consider USA protocols sufficient for approving medicines (e.g. the UK) could not use it as evidence. This is why 2-dose J&J still isn't approved in the UK despite having passed the clinical part of its Phase III trial back in February, but 1-dose J&J, which passed Phase III at the same time, has been approved since May. (Because of this, many UK people still think of J&J as exclusively one-dose). It was only on September 29 that the numbers came back from the second set of ENSEMBLE 2 studies to back the idea that J&J was worthwhile as a two-dose regimen anywhere other than in J&J press releases and the USA. That study seems to indicate the improvement of 2-dose over 1-dose was reflected in all countries that participated in the Phase III trial this time. Before that point, if J&J wasn't viable as one-dose, there was no point using it at all. Now, there is.
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In fairness, England's limiting most young teens (those under 16) to one dose of Pfizer specifically. They're not allowed any other vaccine - not Moderna, but also not OxfordAstrazeneca or J&J. The other types of vaccine haven't completed testing in this age group under UK protocols yet. Given the great enthusiasm to get as many teens as possible vaccinated (in some parts of the country, 10% of 12-year-olds already have their dose, and England's so early into this that some other areas haven't got supplies yet!), it's not clear if any other manufacturer will get round to presenting the necessary safety data in time to be part of the school vaccination programme for this age group. (OxfordAstrazeneca's trying to get their vaccine approved for 5-11-year-olds, so there's no guarantee Pfizer will get a similar monopoly on the next age group down). 16 year olds can have 1 dose of either mRNA vaccine. People who are 17+ can have any approved vaccine (including J&J) in the usual adult course (with dose 2 timed for when the recipient turns 18), although under-30s don't get OxfordAstrazeneca unless their doctor specifically says so (typically because they've had a bad reaction to an mRNA vaccine that was isolated to an ingredient OxfordAstrazeneca doesn't use). The same applies to anyone who is 12+ and either lives with someone who is immunocompromised (whether they themselves are or not) or have a condition that increases the risk of severe illness from COVID-19 such as immunocompromise, Down's Syndrome or cerebal palsy. So for example, a 12-year-old who is immunocompromised can get a full course of any vaccine except (usually) OxfordAstrazeneca. It's all to do with risk and benefit balances. England's getting a massive amount of spread in secondary schools, but a big factor there is that social distancing and masks have been rendered optional in law. Which due to various practical issues (notably cramped school buildings) and a certain amount of stubborn-mindedness, means neither is particularly common at this point. (On the other hand, students who want to mask have their right to do so protected and schools still require non-medically-exempt teachers and staff to use masks any time they are not teaching or drinking/eating on school premises). The UK is betting on high flu numbers, at least for planning purposes. I wouldn't have said its hospitals were in much position to handle any sort of surge because the staff are now rushing through waiting lists as fast as possible before an anticipated surge of Delta Plus (this is another part of the reason the UK's COVID case counts are so bad this month. If it's any comfort, Delta Plus doesn't appear to induce more illness once caught than Delta, despite being more apt to spread). My local hospital is no longer requiring patients to isolate for 3 days before scheduled appointments. It is instead testing on site and triaging only if an immediate positive result occurs. The standard advice to stay away and reschedule elective stuff if one has COVID symptoms applies. This brings it into line with Accident and Emergency (which for obvious reasons couldn't tell people requiring urgent treatment to go home for 3 days before receiving medical attention!) For anyone wondering, this is a particularly bad time to go to Accident & Emergency anyway. At least 1/4 of patients are having to wait over 4 hours for triage, and then typically several hours more waiting on a trolley while waiting for a bed if the triage nurse decides other urgent people need a bed more urgently than you do. Everyone in my family is reminding each other to be very careful. (In case you're wondering, this is down to a combination of people going back to work, with associated increase in traffic accidents and occupational injuries, and people finally going to hospital with things they probably should have gone to hospital for at some point over the summer. The latter is increased especially by people who cannot use the phone or internet methods for getting a GP's/doctor's office appointment, and whose condition eventually deteriorated to the point where A&E was the only option).
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120 hours, or working through an amount of material similar to someone spending 120 hours on foreign languages. Unless you're going to AP level/another formal certificate, trying to get out of taking a college language requirement or considering taking an outside course later on that requires previous study, there's less expectation in foreign languages of having done or not done specific things than there is in, say, maths. Colleges expect students turning up to their foreign language courses to have holes in their knowledge, in a variety of places depending on what they were taught (not just on how well they learned the material). The first 120 hours of a language is always level 1, and you'd count subsequent work as levels 2, 3 and 4 in 120-hour blocks. In a more general sense, Level 1 might be enough language to get by in a country speaking that language as a tourist (often, Level 1 books don't cover major travel emergencies or medical stuff though). Level 2 would have more complex situations and, often, expect work to be done in multiple tenses (if your choice of Level 1 didn't cover major travel emergencies or medical stuff, it's very likely to be in Level 2). Level 3 is often where more academic uses of the language start to happen - students may be asked to write essays and make presentations that aren't on a small set of previously-digested topics, and general-interest (short) books start to enter the picture - it's typically the first level which allows a student to skip (part of) a language requirement in college. Level 4 is commonly where complex literature starts to get read and is equivalent to AP. However, there's significant overlap between all these levels.
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Testing faciliy access is becoming increasingly erratic here, due to reduced funding. The local council's also taken the COVID-19 data off the front page of its website (though it's still on there). Positive tests in the community are down by 20% compared to the previous fortnight, but hospitalisations are holding steady. It has been noted that in my area, the average positive case in the community is in line with the average age of people in my area, but the 209 positive tests in hospital are mostly over-60s. (We have to be a bit careful with that one, since anyone testing positive who stays in hospital for more than a few days will inevitably have multiple tests, even if COVID-19 has nothing to do with their reason for being in hospital and the infection is less trouble than whatever hospitalised them). Overall cases are holding steady at 0.7% positivity. Deaths from COVID-19 are falling, and deaths from other causes are falling faster. Optimism is in the air and with it carelessness about biosecurity measures. I continue to use my mask whenever out of the house. There's a big flu campaign but I do not plan to vaccinate for it this year due to my bad reaction to the flu shot last year. (Also, last time I managed to get a community test, the organiser gave me two home test kits because they'd been told to get rid of them. Note they don't use the home (antigen) test kits to do community testing; they're mostly used for people who want to find out if some illness they have is COVID or not, or to do convenient informal testing before e.g. inviting friends or family for an extended visit).
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I think the point now is to confirm that no mistakes were made during the reduction. Later, when working with potential syllogisms in the wild, then you can use the same structure to say whether that potential syllogism is true or not. However, it's worth something even at this stage because it saves you (or anyone else marking the work) having to meticulously go through the whole thing to find out whether there's a problem. The test shows if it is right or wrong, and if it's wrong, the student can go and troubleshoot it right away without needing a teacher to tell them it's wrong.
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If going down the path of option 2), I would lean towards writing about why the alternative option was chosen (whatever that may be), rather than emphasising why foreign languages were not. Admissions people like to see why things were done more than why things were not done. Bonus: you can talk about why the alternative was chosen even in foreign-language-optional school applications (making it compatible with 4)).
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Ticket to Ride also has a computer game/app version, which is useful if you need something that counts as "productive screen time", that is portable in low-luggage situations (e.g. on holiday) - or you just plain want some variety of maps without filling half a cupboard with the different Ticket to Ride variations that exist. Editing to add that I just realised I'm replying to something that was said a long time ago and OP may no longer find useful.
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What is "The End" of Learning to Write?
ieta_cassiopeia replied to Gil's topic in High School and Self-Education Board
There is another external arbitration element that is useful for at least some types of literature essay: how people relate to one another. Granted, this study is itself squishy. However, it is one that people have to do all the time in their adult lives in order to function in society. It's also one reason why literary analysis of character-based novels is so difficult for young teenagers: they often don't have much experience of how adults react in those situations (even taking into account differences in time and setting between when the novel was set and nowadays). Literary analysis can help crystallise the notion that there are multiple types of truth, which apply in different settings, are demonstrated in different ways, and have different effects - as well as the notion that people in well-written books have something in common with people in reality (in other words, that novels have something to say about human nature). Writing is something that can be used to get a task done*, to preserve some idea for the future, to persuade others and to help gain a deeper understanding of something. Once a student can do all four of these things well enough to support their current needs, using the tools you have available in your home (including the computer, to the extent you use one for the parts of adult life you think your child is ready to learn), writing can fall away from the curriculum as a separate subject and simply be re-introduced at the point of need. It's a lot easier to teach writing if you know you're only going to be doing it to explain writing for college applications/unfamiliar exam formats/complex job applications etc. , rather than feeling like you have another 4/5 years of daily work to go with no particular endpoint. * - Writing classes that encourage students to just aim for the A are guilty of overemphasising "writing to get a task done" - namely, the task of getting the A. Such courses are at risk of not even teaching the full range of what tasks writing can accomplish, let alone the other things writing can do. -
Is this Economics program out of date?
ieta_cassiopeia replied to Homemama2's topic in High School and Self-Education Board
The Notgrass 2009 quiz and exam pack is available to purchase online if you don't have them. So if you have the student notebook for 2009, you're good to go. -
Double post
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Sorry to hear it, and genetic vulnerability is possible (pretty sure nobody has explored that angle in research yet in relation to COVID vaccines). If people are used to medicine not being free, they tend not to look for information about health treatments because they assume they couldn't get it even if it turned out to be applicable to them. They're also more likely to be vaccine-hesitant as a result. This is before taking into account correlations. Being uninsured tracks really well with poverty and quite well with living in rural areas (both potentially restricting information flow, which would result in more vaccine hesitancy if the first they heard of e.g. FDA approval was from this survey question). It tracks quite well with being Black or under 30 (both categories where there's relatively high mistrust of the government in general, thus not trusting its recommendations, and have the highest levels of "only if required" vaccination levels). It also tracks somewhat well with being Republican (the category we know they have the highest amount of anti-vaxx opinion) or Independent (especially the "neither party has my best interests at heart" variety, which would of course lead to greater scepticism of anything the government or its agencies might say on the matter). Edited to add: Being uninsured (especially above 26) tracks somewhat with people who have problems using the phone/non-face-to-face methods of healthcare. They may not be able to book themselves an appointment and may not wish to impose upon their family to arrange it. (57% of autistic people in the UK surveyed this week said they did not see their GP on at least one occasion they should have done because they couldn't use the phone well enough to either do a telemedicine appointment or book a face-to-face one. This is a category I can imagine having no healthcare insurance in the USA if living independently due to problems arranging it, or anticipated problems using it if needed).
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At the moment, in the UK the advice is to get only one jab (for under-16s), so if you really want two jabs, long spacing makes sense. Perhaps one soon, in time for any winter surges, and another in late winter/early spring when sites aren't trying to juggle COVID and flu vaccinations at the same time.
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Harvard did research about Twitter messages in February which suggested vaccine opponents were spreading over 3 times as much (by proportion) misinformation as vaccine proponents. A strong vaccine opponent may well have over a third of their COVID-related timeline filled with outright COVID misinformation (not counting discussion that wasn't verifiably wrong). Also, 1 in 6 accounts discussing COVID on Twitter are bots, evenly divided between pro- and anti-vaccine bots. The anti-vaccine bots' owners may well have an endgame of promoting misery, and there were an unspecified number of state-sponsored or likely-state-sponsored trolls identified (for whom the endgame may be getting paid a small amount per tweet to forward their home nation's cyberwarfare agenda. Misinformation on the social networks is some people's daily income). There's also a variety of errors going on, that vaccine opponents are especially prone to miss, and therefore spread in the belief they are being helpful. In KSera's example, some people may have a genuine belief that spreading posts telling people to avoid hospital and remdesivir in favour of something else might save lives because they've fallen for an erroneous but persuasive argument. The large amount of misinformation surrounding them that fits in the argument of which they are persuaded means that if anyone turns up with accurate information, it comes across as obviously wrong because it does not tally with the (wrong but predominant in their timeline) information that's surrounded them for so long.
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Side effects for all vaccines (including but not restricted to mRNA) reported in the UK. All percentages are inclusive. Unless otherwise specified, the risks on first and second dose are similar, but tend to cluster to the same people (so if you had a symptom on the first dose, there's a good chance you'll have it on a future dose too). : Very common (more than 10%): headache/muscle ache, stiffness, tiredness, fatigue, combinations of the above. Common (1-10%): Redness at the injection site Uncommon (0.1% - 1%): swollen lymph glands (which is considered a medical concern if lasting more than 10 days), unusual results in breast screening (which is a medical concern if lasting more than 7 days as the changes should revert) Side effects for doses of Pfizer specifically: Very common (above 10%): "Heavy", painful feeling and tenderness in arm receiving injection, joint pain, chills, mild fever Common (1-10%): Nausea/vomiting Uncommon (0.1%-1%): Insomnia, rash/itchiness at the injection site Rare (0.01%-0.1%): Palsy, hives at the injection site, facial swelling Below 1 per 10,000: Anaphylactic allergy (always a medical emergency) Below 1 per 10,000: Heart inflammation (medical concern if not cured with 2 weeks of home rest) Below 1 per 10,000: Various severe/acute heart problems, including myocarditis and pericarditis (always a medical emergency, for the ones in this category) (Note: we do have more of an idea for this one, because the statistic given for 12-15 year olds was 32 in 1,000,000 and the risk apparently decreases with age, all else being equal). Below 1 per 10,000: Severe swelling of the vaccinated limb Side effects for doses of Moderna specifically: Very common (above 10%): "Heavy", painful feeling and tenderness in arm receiving injection, joint pain, chills, mild fever Very common (more than 10%): Vomiting/nausea Common (1%-10%): Rash/hives at the injection site Uncommon (0.1%-1%): Itchiness at the injection site, Below 1 per 10,000: Anaphylactic allergy (always a medical emergency) Below 1 per 10,000: Heart inflammation (medical concern if not cured with 2 weeks of home rest) Below 1 per 10,000: Hypersensitive immune system (potentially a future medical emergency) Below 1 per 10,000: Various severe/acute heart problems, including myocarditis and pericarditis (always a medical emergency, for the ones in this category). It's thought to be less common than Pfizer but I've not seen any exact numbers for this. Side effects for doses of OxfordAstrazeneca specifically: Very common (above 10%): warmth/bruising/pain at the injection site (not associated with fever), chills, joint pain, mild fever Common (1%-10%): Moderate fever (a medical concern in this case if lasting longer than 3 days), swelling/lump at the injection site, limb pain, vomiting, diarrhoea Uncommon (0.1% - 10%): dizziness, sleepiness, decreased appetite, abdominal pain, excessive sweating, hives, excessive sweating, itchy skin (unlike J&J, these generally resolve with care at home and are rarely a medical concern) Below 1 per 10,000: Anaphylactic allergy (always a medical emergency) Below 1 per 10,000: Facial swelling Below 1 per 10,000: Reduced platelet count (potential medical emergency) Below 1 per 10,000: Capillary leak syndrome (fluid leakage from small blood vessels) Below 1 per 10,000: Hypersensitive immune system (potentially a future medical emergency) Very rare (15 per million first doses / 1 in 66,666): Blood clots (always a medical emergency). No statistically significant risk of it in the second dose for people who did not get blood clots on the first dose. First-dose risk decreases with age. Low platelets associated with increased degree of risk but average/high platelet levels are not 100% protective (which is almost the case with J&J). Side effects for doses of Janssen & Janssen specifically: Very common (above 10%): Nausea Common (1% - 10%): Swelling at injection site, joint pain, chills, mild fever, cough Uncommon (0.1% - 1%): rash (generally or just at the injection site), muscle weakness, limb pain, feeling of weakness, sneezing, sore throat, back pain, tremor, excessive sweating (all a medical concern if lasting for more than 3 weeks), itchiness at the injection site Rare (0.01% - 0.1%) : Anaphylactic allergy (always a medical emergency), hives Very rare (between 1 in 100,000 and 1 in 10,000): Blood clots (always a medical emergency). Unlike OxfordAstrazeneca, this appears to be almost exclusively in people with a history of low platelets. In the UK, this is only ever given as a single-dose vaccine, except to those people in the 2-dose trial. mRNA shared symptoms that are more common in mRNA vaccines than either UK-approved non-mRNA vaccine: Very common (above 10%): "Heavy" feeling and tenderness in arm receiving injection Below 1 per 10,000: Heart inflammation (medical concern if not cured with 2 weeks of home rest) Below 1 per 10,000: Various severe/acute heart problems, including myocarditis and pericarditis (always a medical emergency, for the ones in this category) For anything listed as "below 1 per 10,000" without a descriptor of how common it is, the side effects are rare enough that the precise frequency is considered unknown, however anything above 1 in 10,000 is reported with a category of severity, so we can be reasonably confident it's low for the general population. This is as distinct from, for example, the J&J blood clots, which is common enough that an actual percentage is considered statistically reliable despite happening so rarely. There's also talk that some/all of the vaccines may be causing changes to people's period patterns, which would count as a symptom for NHS purposes. However, due to the way the data is collected, no reliable numbers exist (either in total or by vaccine). Hope this helps.
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The 2-dose J&J was submitted to the UK for testing last autumn through to this spring; 1-dose was approved in late April). J&J would need to re-submit the 2-dose for Phase III testing in the UK to see if the results it discusses are replicated there, if it has new information. Otherwise this is potentially an apples-to-oranges comparison.
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In a post-Covid world, would you prefer
ieta_cassiopeia replied to Dmmetler's topic in The Chat Board
For the instrument, I think a hybrid of 1 and 2 would be good; that is to say, rental of known good-enough instuments to all students who are just starting, with purchase of the instrument at the end of the first semester/year (however far you want students to pay ahead) for those wishing to continue. Two-stage commitment can be a motivator for some students (that "you can't keep it unless you put in the effort to show it's worth continuing to pay"), you can be sure everyone knows how to look after their flute before they own one (because you can cover it in class, in context, without worrying about anyone doing it wrong before they've absorbed the knowledge), having everyone use the same instrument means the tones will 100% match (not that beginner's classes necessarily worry much about this), and if it turns out a student is a bad fit for an instrument, the parent isn't out too much money. I'm used to books being the parent's responsibility (since a beginner's book is often cheaper than an instrument commitment and easier to re-sell/pass to another sibling if the instrument doesn't take). -
J&J 2-dose didn't get approval in the UK because it was only slightly more effective than 1-dose in the UK (I think it was 71% vs 66% if I recall correctly, but I don't have the studies to hand, which wasn't felt to be worth doubling the cost and complexity of initial dosing). If the USA data is similar, it would be difficult for them to justify doing a second dose immediately... ...though of course this says nothing about whether that second dose would be helpful months or years down the line.
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Large new real-life study of mask wearing in Bangladesh
ieta_cassiopeia replied to Laura Corin's topic in The Chat Board
It's also worth considering that the research wasn't testing a scheme with rigourous education on how to wear particular types of mask (though I think it had some generic mask-wearing advice), so respirators likely wouldn't have been at maximum effectiveness at individual level in this study in any case. Someone seriously considering a respirator would presumably learn how to use the specific respirator they were going to use and have access to the necessary knowledge (such information access cannot be assumed in a population study somewhere with high levels of poverty). -
Can you help with a language question for a project?
ieta_cassiopeia replied to Dmmetler's topic in The Chat Board
I'm not familiar with the colloquial meaning of "edge", though I've heard it be used for incisive comments as well as for the more common geometric definitions. "Edgy" is something that walks the line between social acceptability and being too outrageous for mainstream tastes, with the implication that it's slightly in the realm of the latter. It also has the implication of being a deliberate choice, intended to communicate with other people with "edgy" tastes, rather than being accidental, due to a misunderstanding - or indeed to upset anyone with mainstream tastes. (Deliberately offensive actions are occasionally said to be "over-edgy" or words to that effect). "Edgelord" is someone who behaves like a troll and puts annoying/dramatic messages all over the place, but is (usually) equal-opportunities aggravating and doing it because they like being on the line between social acceptability and being too outrageous for the tastes of wherever they are posting. Unlike a troll, there is rarely malicious intent towards anyone else and it's not necessarily meant to divert the discussion off-topic or interfere with the (perceived by the edgelord) goals of that social space (although all of these things can be true in a specific example). They can be difficult to moderate in a forum space - trolls usually mean to break forum rules so applying the consequences is easy, whereas an edgelord often tries to be just within the forum rules (while clearly causing drama and aggravation to other members). They are to the internet what Diogenes* was to philosophy. * - For anyone wondering, Diogenes was at a lecture Plato gave that described men as "featherless bipeds". Diogenes immediately went to the local market and returned to the Academy with a plucked chicken. "Behold, a man!" Yes, he was trying to make a valid philosophical point, but the method was bound to cause drama and cause aggravation, which appears to have been on purpose (in this case, to help underline the point that this description of men needed improving). You can almost hear the frustration in Plato's tone when he added to the defintion of a man "with broad flat nails"...