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ChocolateReignRemix

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Everything posted by ChocolateReignRemix

  1. The article has some accurate information but trends towards the hysterical a bit. Every day you don't have a recession you are a day closer to your next. The 3 mo/10 year yield curve did invert, and this is often an indicator that a recession is looming. Some of the impact of the indicator is lessened as that time horizon for the predicted recession is fairly wide, with the average time lag being somewhere around a year (give or take). There is a question as to whether the amount of debt held by central banks is lessening the reliability of the inversion as a predictor this time around. I am still catching up on the financial news today, but I don't think the inversion lasted through the trading day. If not I would be looking more closely at the average yield between the 3 mo and 10 yr over a 30 day average. Institutional demand can play a role in a brief inversion. We definitely are seeing slowing economic growth due to variety of headwinds. The past year of the trade war has caused a many companies to hold off on making investments as they are not sure about future pricing/demand. China has showed weakening growth (more alarming due to China usually overstating growth so admitted declines causes a concern that things are even worse), we have slower growth in the EU, and Brexit is looking more like a shit show ever day. On the plus side, there are signs the US and China could reach something that looks like a deal, China started a stimulus effort in late 2018 which should yield fruit soon, and the job market and consumer spending in the US remains strong. The US housing market has taken a hit but most of that impact has already appeared in the data and shouldn't get much worse in the near term. Summary: I have expected a recession or enough of a slowdown to feel like one by 2020. I don't see anything that really changes my mind, other than a small chance that the China deal causes some exuberance and sparks business investment again. The Fed has also backed off of rate increases in the near term which takes that fear off the table, and helps alleviate some of the debt concern expressed in the article. We also do not have any indications yet that credit markets have gotten overly risk averse (helped a bit by future business investment running low at the moment), In the end I think all the headwinds together gives us a short recession and without additional negative stimuli I don't expect anything more than something along the lines of what we felt around 2000. What I do not see is a massive global meltdown akin to 2008. And yes, every analyst wants to be the one who can say they called "The Big One", which means some will call everything that next Big One until they get one right. Keep in mind that consensus of economists have successfully predicted 12 of the past 3 recessions. 🙂 If you want to play economist with the pros, watch the labor markets, energy markets (especially a collapse in demand) and the manufacturing reports. If you see unemployment increasing while the manufacturing reports decline and energy demand drops, you will know the recession is on the horizon. ETA: the inversion did hold through the day. I would still wait and see what the movement is over the next month.
  2. The acceptance rate is around 35%. A lot of the top state schools can be highly selective, especially in states with large populations.
  3. Mail fraud has some fairly stiff sentences at the federal level. Sentencing guidelines will come into play. I doubt anyone involved has past convictions which would increase the sentencing level, but the chance of some time in a federal prison is high.
  4. FWIW the claims in that link are greatly disputed, and while indentured servitude was awful, it legally was a very different status in the colonies than that of a slave. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/17/us/irish-slaves-myth.html https://www.encyclopediavirginia.org/Runaway_Slaves_and_Servants_in_Colonial_Virginia#start_entry
  5. Oh hell naw! Did you rattle a cage at corporate? Marriott is usually much better at customer service and they should be comping you some Rewards points which would cover part of another stay.
  6. Just taking a flyer, I am going to say because others disagree and believe the evidence does support it? Just a guess as I don't follow the research closely.
  7. I can't say I have had my mind swayed but much on WTM, but over the years I have gotten a lot from discussions on other boards.
  8. Except according to the law in BC the child is legally old enough to give consent. In the end the final decision should go to the one with the most at stake if there is reasonable evidence to support that decision. In this case the child does have the support of one parent and health care professionals.
  9. States do not have to enforce federal law. The federal government declaring something illegal does not mean a state has to do so. The state cannot obstruct the enforcement of the federal law but they do not have to support it either.
  10. More than likely, yes. Bail conditions often restrict multiple legal activities.
  11. Correct - don't get why you think the court shouldn't have ruled. It's like you don't get why courts exist.
  12. And when the parents disagree? I mean it's like you aren't grasping why this ended up in a court.
  13. Also, if you want a legal YouTube channel that can take you down a lot of rabbit holes, I highly recommend Lehto on the Law. He isn't infallible but brings up some good topics.
  14. I actually was thinking about that as I was typing that and forgot to come back to it. I believe if they get a warrant for the device they can tell if voice to text was being used or if the device was being operated manually. I need to reach out to a friend who does accident investigations for an insurance company as I really would like to know how this is addressed.
  15. I watched this tonight and thought it was well done. You could actually see the woman who was facing conspiracy theories about herself almost have an epiphany and realize how that related to her own beliefs, but then the hamster running the wheel that powers her brain died and the moment passed. I follow various conspiracy theories and movements, and the flat earth types are usually floating around the fringes of the sovereign citizen and redemption movements. I found the part of the doc where the experiments failed and the flat earthers simply ignored the results to be very much like how the sovereign citizens deal with the mass of evidence that their theories are simply wrong. I have lost count of how many videos I have watched where someone claiming the "right to travel without a license" has had their window broken out and then arrested, yet they still cling to their beliefs (even after losing in court). The redemption movement (belief that there is an account at the Federal Reserve with millions in it under your SS #) was all the rage in 2017, and no matter how many times these people had bill payments rejected and racked up late fees, they would insist it really worked and sooner or later their bills would be paid by their secret account. Some actually lost their homes/cars and still think it will eventually be made right. Many of the redemption gurus are now in jail for fraud, but their followers still believe there is a great awakening on the horizon and they will be freed any day. A lot of them jumped on the Q-Anon silliness as proof that something "big" is about to happen. *sigh*
  16. Actually the IRS must show "willful evasion" to have any shot at getting a conviction. There is a clear cut difference between mistakes and evasion. If the IRS is pursuing criminal charges against someone for tax evasion (which they rarely do), then it's a pretty good bet they have the goods. The FBI conviction rate is also a factor of what they choose to pursue.
  17. They can request access and seize the device. If you are a US citizen they can detain you for a reasonable period of time but cannot deny you entry. If someone is not on their phone at the time of an accident, it is in their best interest to comply, as they will be able to resolve matters with their insurance more quickly with a completed police report. If the police believe you were distracted due to your phone (and you were), they will be able to easily get a warrant for your phone and for your activity on your phone from your service provider. They generally cannot force you to comply at the scene (what the police can/can't do as far as compliance/assistance with accessing a device is still being litigated) but they can seize the device as evidence.
  18. The biggest red flags were the location and timing of the attack. For a hoax it was poorly planned, but after hearing he paid the accomplices by check I guess it isn't surprising.
  19. The details and description of the alleged shooter came straight from the police reports. And the police put out the description of the alleged shooter based on those details along with the footage of the pickup in the area. Which is standard as they can only go on what they have at the time. Often the police are investigating other angles quietly but if they have a possible suspect they go ahead and release what they have instead of letting the trail run cold.
  20. Not exactly. The media reported what the police had at the time. The pickup/driver in question did exist and were caught on video - he just wasn't the shooter.
  21. I am not really sure what you are asking. I don't believe the public has any direct access to his emails. We do have access to court documents which include evidence from the investigation, including some emails. The charging documents provide the legal justification for his arrest, detention, and trial and should be accessible to the public. I would be more afraid of a legal system where charging documents were kept secret.
  22. I'm not sure about the rest of you, but I personally welcome our new Emojii Overlords and look forward to their benevolent reign.
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