What do Americans think about Scotland possibly splitting from the UK?

[Okra]

I have a friend who lives in Northern England and she asked me what Americans thought about the possibility of Scotland splitting away from the UK

 

I don't actually know what different Americans think on this topic.  What does the hive say?

[Ellie]

I don't think a true split is likely.

 

I think it's to Scotland's advantage to keep the status quo.

[Lady Florida.]

I don't have an opinion on it but am very curious to see what happens. I'll be watching closely next week when they vote.

[Starr]

I've seen articles trying to correlate it with a state such as Texas seceding from the US but I don't see it. I think we mostly watch and wonder how it would all work.

[umsami]

I think it's up to the people of Scotland, but I have to admit ignorance as to how strong their economy and other resources may be to weather things on their own.   Would it still be part of the Commonwealth, like Canada and Australia…or does it totally want to cut all ties?

 

I also wonder if successful, how that might affect Quebecois independence.  

[Kathryn]

I don't have an opinion on it but am very curious to see what happens. I'll be watching closely next week when they vote.

Pretty much this. I find it fascinating that it's being voted on now, but don't care how they vote.

[Dmmetler]

DH is watching because he handles international currency issues for his company's products, so this could lead to extra work in the short-term (although if they become part of the EU and use euros, that will minimize it.)

 

 

[Happy]

I think it's up to the people of Scotland, but I have to admit ignorance as to how strong their economy and other resources may be to whether things on their own.   Would it still be part of the Commonwealth, like Canada and Australia…or does it totally want to cut all ties?

 

I also wonder if successful, how that might affect Quebecois independence.  

 

I have a fair amount of Scottish pride via my husband's heritage...but I'm like the above quote. I don't know enough to make a good judgment.

 

Because of our travels in Scotland several years ago, I think this vote for independence will succeed. People we spoke to expressed an interest in independence.

 

[KrissiK]

I really have no opinion! Let them do what they want,

[Jennifer3141]

We are of Scottish descent and have Scottish relatives there right now but I don't feel like I have a rooster in this fight. Let the vote happen and the people decide. NPR has been reporting on it a lot and it seems the Scottish people are almost evenly divided.

[ChocolateReignRemix]

The Scots can do what they want but a split will be an economic nightmare for them.  They are vastly over estimating what they will get from the North Sea oil fields.

[Violet Crown]

Dh has a part-time position in Scotland. Middle and Wee Girls are actually quite upset at the prospect of having to again spend a day at the immigration office, going through all the rigmarole for visas.

[Mbelle]

Like others have said it's their decision. 

 

I do wonder about the economics of that decision at this point.  Economics is not the be all and end all, but it is important. 

 

I do think as time goes by they could gain significant power in other ways.  What if they ramped up education, worked hard on more business opportunities, inserted many more people into the military and had lots of children?  Then the power could be in their hands. 

 

[Okra]

Honestly, this is kind of what I felt too.  It seems that most people are ambivalent about it, but I thought I would post here, so I could get out of my own little circle of people, and get others' opinions.

 

It will be interesting to see what happens.

 

 

 

 

[Seasider]

The Scots can do what they want but a split will be an economic nightmare for them. They are vastly over estimating what they will get from the North Sea oil fields.

This is what I was wondering about. I have no knowledge of how Scotland and the rest of the UK are tied together these days, but it would be a shame if the Scots let national pride be the ruination of the people's ability to lead a fair quality of life (ie, if the economy collapses/nosedives).

[MrsMommy]

I think it's kind of sad, and I think that if there truly is a split, there will be repercussions that haven't been fully explored. It is their decision, however, and they need to do what they think is best for their country.

[gaillardia]

This is the first I've heard of it. I support it even though I know nothing of the economics of Scotland. What they tried to do so long ago...I'm 1/4 Scottish ancestry, haven't been there yet, but it is on my list of places to go.

[creekland]

If they want independence, go for it.  Doing it by vote is much easier on everyone that what we had to do for our independence.  I think it ended up ok for the US.

 

But if you want to know how most Americans feel... in my neck of the woods, most Americans don't even know a vote is happening.   :glare: 

[Katy]

I've seen articles about it online, but haven't taken the time to read them.  I've been more worried about our own political state, war, terrorism, and normal life.

[Pam in CT]

DH is watching because he handles international currency issues for his company's products, so this could lead to extra work in the short-term (although if they become part of the EU and use euros, that will minimize it.)

 

I think this (whether an independent Scotland would join the euro zone) is the most important variable to Scotland's long term viability as an independent nation, and it isn't to be decided on the referendum.  

 

I was in Edinburgh two weeks ago -- my daughter goes to university there -- and most everyone I chatted up about it, pro or con (and they seemed pretty evenly split) acknowledged that no one can possibly forecast how the economy would fare independently.  They have to make the choice based on the politics of sovereignty (which seem to run pretty deep) vs a big scary unknown of economic effects.

[idnib]

I think it's probably better for them on a practical level to stay, but I also understand national pride. Many times things don't go well for the smaller country in the short term, but if you think generations ahead, it might be a good idea.

 

DH thinks it's a bad idea.

[Liz CA]

Interesting. I wonder what my niece's Scottish dh would have to say to this. Obviously, he is not a great fan of the Brits. Has Laura responded yet. I think she lives in Scotland.

[Truscifi]

I don't have an opinion for or against, but I have been watching with interest. So far it seems to be a good example of how such things should work, with a peaceful vote to decide the future.

[Mbelle]

I'm just wondering if the South or Texas etc.. decided to "peacefully" vote to not be a part of the union what would happen? I know we have btdt, but that area is now quite a bit richer, more populous and most of the military comes from these places. 

 

It seems to me that Britain is better off without Scotland right now, but if they get rich and then try to leave it might get nasty.  So, in the long run, if there is a good plan in place, it might make better economic sense in every respect just to cut the ties right now....if that is what they want to do, otherwise go for the power and be the rulers.  

 

Ughh..politics!   

 

Will there be an echo in N. Ireland?  It's been fairly quiet there for awhile.

[Slartibartfast]

I am watching with interest but I don't have an opinion as to what Scotland should do, it is their country and their decision.

[MomtoCandJ]

I don't really care either way, as long as the US doesn't try to mess with any of it. I just think the government tends to stick thier noses in where it don't belong. Like the Middle East, they have been fighting amongst themselves for centuries, and nothing we do is really going to change that.

[Lisbeth]

I need to read up on the reasoning.

I will say I can understand the longing. This is different, but with the US being so nearly evenly split in elections, etc., no matter who wins nearly 50% of the people will be unhappy. I daydream about a split, an amicable divorce. Let both sides of the political divide run their portion as they wish, with no intereference or bailouts from the other side. Ahhh, daydreams.

So I am interested in Scotland's thought process, here. I have a lot of Irish and Scottish ancestry. I will read up on this and try to have a more informed opinion a bit later.

[Plink]

I have a friend who lives in Northern England and she asked me what Americans thought about the possibility of Scotland splitting away from the UK

 

I don't actually know what different Americans think on this topic.  What does the hive say?

 

Tell her that according to the Monroe Doctrine, we aren't allowed to voice an opinion on England's relationship with Scotland.  ;)

 

Like the others, I'm curious to see what happens.

[horsellian]

I also wonder if successful, how that might affect Quebecois independence.  

 

If they do separate, the people who will be watching most closely are the Catalans. (One of the reasons I think the split is a bad idea for Scotland is that Spain will veto their joining the EU as a separate member state, because the Catalans will want independence from Spain if they could separate and remain in the EU.)

[theYoungerMrsWarde]

As a royal watcher, my first thought was to wonder how this would affect the British Royal Family's Scottish titles.

[HS Mom in NC]

I don't think much at all about it.  I've always joked that the Scots were sort of the Texans of Europe (historically very independent mined) so if they do break away I guess my analogy might be a little stronger.  I don't know enough about Scotland and its relationship to the EU or how exactly the EU works, so I have no opinion either way.  I was stunned the EU thing happened at all because Europeans are so culturally different from each other that I couldn't really imagine how it could work.  I watch the whole Scotland thing with very little interest.

[Guest]

No opinion, here.  

 

The thing that is interesting to me about it is the "secession" / "split" talk that goes on in many different places and at different levels.

 

Scotland/UK

Quebec/Canada

Texas/US

 

Then, the talk about Six Californias.

The endless talk about splitting states into two sections (eg. Western/Eastern WA; No/Southern CO or Western/Eastern CO)

And even at the county level in King County WA.

 

I don't know enough to say whether this kind of "split" talk has a long history or is fairly recent and a mark of our times.

 

[Caroline]

It was actually huge talk at a dinner party I attended last week. Of course there were two Scots and two English at the party. The conclusion I heard from my fiends was that it would be a bad idea economically for both parties. However, my friends felt the vote might go for independence, and it would be carried by the young people. But even with the vote, what would happen? So my Scottish friend was thinking of getting back his right to vote, however his wife, also of Scottish descent, although she grew up on Kenya, thought that was a bad idea because of the taxes they would owe. It was a very interesting conversation. In fact, one of my friend called his dad in England and wine him up so he could participate in our conversation. The father is Scottish, but now lives in Englad as he retired from being the manager of the Bolton team when his kids were in school, and they just stayed there. Big Jim thinks it would be a bad idea.

[VeritasMama]

I'm part Scottish and part Irish. My grandpa wore a kilt on certain occasions :).

 

I understand the sentiment, but if they become independent it will create issues with the military, NATO, the EU, etc. Will Scotland be allowed in the EU and NATO?

 

More importantly, will the royal family still vacation in Scotland? ;)

 

I have no opinion on it, but I am interested.

[ChocolateReignRemix]

If they want independence, go for it.  Doing it by vote is much easier on everyone that what we had to do for our independence.  I think it ended up ok for the US.

 

But if you want to know how most Americans feel... in my neck of the woods, most Americans don't even know a vote is happening.   :glare: 

 

1.) Our need for independence was quite different than theirs, so I wouldn't draw any comparisons between the two.

 

2.) I am not surprised most don't know about the vote.  In the grand scheme of global events it is a minor story at best.  An independent Scotland will be completely irrelevant on the world stage.

 

This would be much better if the numbers were more lopsided one way or the other.  A slim vote for independence will mean a lot of people against it will likely be screwed economically which will lead to additional internal issues.

[RanchGirl]

On a purely emotional level, I support independence 100%.  I have very limited understanding of the economic ramifications.

[MrsMommy]

As a royal watcher, my first thought was to wonder how this would affect the British Royal Family's Scottish titles.

 

My understanding is that it wouldn't. Her Majesty would still be the Queen of Scots, at least for now. I think it would be similar to Canada, in that regard. The political leaders in Scotland seem to want to maintain the country's ties with the Royal Family.

[Mom in High Heels]

I don't have a dog in the fight, thus have no real opinion either way.  I am curious to see how it will turn out.  How will the economy in Scotland and England be affected?  Will the economy be a deciding factor in the final vote?  Curious.

[ChocolateReignRemix]

I don't have a dog in the fight, thus have no real opinion either way.  I am curious to see how it will turn out.  How will the economy in Scotland and England be affected?  Will the economy be a deciding factor in the final vote?  Curious.

 

The currency issue alone will be a mess.

 

The Yes supporters contend that they will be able to use the pound as part of a currency union with the UK.  However, the word from the UK is that they will not agree to a currency union.  Even if they did, Scotland would have get its budget approved by Parliament as part of any currency union, which would be essentially giving back some of its new independence.

 

The fallback from there is that Scotland could still use the pound even if they are not in a currency union (Panama does that with the dollar), however, economic conditions in Scotland will not be taken into consideration when the Bank of England sets interest rates, which means monetary policy at times in the UK could be in conflict with what is needed in Scotland - but the Scots will have no input into those policies.

 

If Scotland joins the EU they can use the Euro (which has its own sets of issues) but there is no guarantee that inclusion into the EU is a given - Spain being one nation which will likely fight tooth and nail to keep them out.

 

The Yes proponents having been waving their hands at these issues but they are real, and are only a small part of the potential fallout.  A number of banks/financial services companies are already making contingency plans to leave Scotland and set up their HQs back in England.

 

Yes proponents are also basing Scotland's future financial security on revenue projections based North Sea oil reserve estimates that are considered by many industry analysts to be overly optimistic.  If those projections are off, Scotland could find itself in a budgetary disaster in a relatively short period of time.

[Farrar]

I'm pretty sure most Americans would say, "Scot-where in the what now?"

 

It's interesting... Dh and I were talking about it and we agreed that either way at this point the results will basically be rotten. Is it worse to stay in the UK knowing that 49% of the people want to leave? Or is it worse to be in a new country knowing that 49% of the people don't support it? Since the whole thing has become so close, I do wonder if it's just setting themselves up for a mess either way.

 

I also wonder about what it says about the state of nationalism.

[elegantlion]

The people I talked to today were split - bringing up economics as the reason not to split. 

 

I'm curious how it would affect services such as education between countries. Would English universities change their enrollment and tuition for what would now be international students?

[VeritasMama]

This article brings up some issues that would directly affect the US, if anyone is interested.

 

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/09/scotland-independence-vote-us-headache

[bobbeym]

I don't have any ties to my Scottish ancestry, and haven't followed it enough to understand all the ramifications of the split if it happens. But I'm curious to see how it goes and whether it will lead to other countries/areas/states deciding to do the same.

[horsellian]

I'm curious how it would affect services such as education between countries. Would English universities change their enrollment and tuition for what would now be international students?

 

Scotland and England actually have completely separate education systems already.

 

One potential problem for Scotland is that their universities don't charge fees to Scottish students but they do to the English/Welsh students (whereas England's universities charge everyone).  If Scotland were independent and an EU member, then that would be illegal discrimination against another member state, and they wouldn't be allowed to do it any more.  

 

The current situation in all EU countries is that international university students from other member states pay the same as home students, and there are generally separate rates for non-EU international students.

[Laura Corin]

  Would it still be part of the Commonwealth, like Canada and Australia…or does it totally want to cut all ties?

 

The Scottish nationalists want to keep the Queen - probably as part of the Commonwealth

 

DH is watching because he handles international currency issues for his company's products, so this could lead to extra work in the short-term (although if they become part of the EU and use euros, that will minimize it.)

 

I think that joining the Euro would be hard to sell in Scotland at present, given the chaos in the Euro zone.  One doesn't have to use the Euro if one is part of the EU, however - the UK doesn't.  There is a big dispute about whether Scotland would be grandfathered into the EU or would have to join the back of the queue for entry.  The former would face opposition from other countries (primarily Spain) that have separatist movements that they want to discourage; the latter would be economically very disruptive.

 

 

I do think as time goes by they could gain significant power in other ways.  What if they ramped up education, worked hard on more business opportunities, inserted many more people into the military and had lots of children?  Then the power could be in their hands. 

 

I would say that Scots, as individuals, are disproportionately represented in most professions and positions of power in the UK in general.  Politically, this has been, in recent years, because a large proportion of the Labour party's support has been in Scotland, so there has been a good Scottish pool to draw on.  The educational system in Scotland has long been considered better than that in the rest of the UK, although Scots of my acquaintance are not sure that this is still the case.  

 

Have lots of children?  The population of Scotland is around 5 million out of the 60 million in the UK, so that would have to be quite a population explosion, with resultant strain on education and health services.

 

This is the first I've heard of it. I support it even though I know nothing of the economics of Scotland. What they tried to do so long ago...I'm 1/4 Scottish ancestry, haven't been there yet, but it is on my list of places to go.

 

Tried to do so long ago?  Scotland was an independent country from the early middle ages until 1707.  The process of union with the rest of the UK began when a Scottish king became heir to the English/Welsh throne.

 

I was in Edinburgh two weeks ago -- my daughter goes to university there -- and most everyone I chatted up about it, pro or con (and they seemed pretty evenly split) acknowledged that no one can possibly forecast how the economy would fare independently.  They have to make the choice based on the politics of sovereignty (which seem to run pretty deep) vs a big scary unknown of economic effects.

 

I think that this is a good assessment of the situation.

 

Interesting. I wonder what my niece's Scottish dh would have to say to this. Obviously, he is not a great fan of the Brits. Has Laura responded yet. I think she lives in Scotland.

 

Why 'obviously not a great fan of the Brits'?  The poll is running at about 50/50.  I think that those outside of the UK sometimes have a very Disneyfied view of relations within these isles.

 

Will there be an echo in N. Ireland?  It's been fairly quiet there for awhile.

 

No.  Very different situation.  Neither Loyalists nor Republicans would want an independent N. Ireland.

 

L

[Laura Corin]

If they do separate, the people who will be watching most closely are the Catalans. (One of the reasons I think the split is a bad idea for Scotland is that Spain will veto their joining the EU as a separate member state, because the Catalans will want independence from Spain if they could separate and remain in the EU.)

 

Yes.

 

 So my Scottish friend was thinking of getting back his right to vote, however his wife, also of Scottish descent, although she grew up on Kenya, thought that was a bad idea because of the taxes they would owe. 

 

She would only have to pay taxes on overseas income if she lived in Scotland.  The US is among only one or two countries that demands taxes of their expatriate citizens on worldwide income.

 

I understand the sentiment, but if they become independent it will create issues with the military, NATO, the EU, etc. Will Scotland be allowed in the EU and NATO?

 

NATO is a big issue.  A major part of the UK's contribution to NATO is the nuclear submarines moored at Faslane, in Scotland.  If Scotland is no longer part of the UK/no longer part of the NATO, then the UK will have to adjust its position in NATO.  You can't just sail a nuclear sub to a different harbour - it needs to refuel and it needs deep water.

 

I'm curious how it would affect services such as education between countries. Would English universities change their enrollment and tuition for what would now be international students?

 

The university system is a big problem.  The first issue is the one you just brought up, but the EU makes it slightly different than how you posed it.  Currently, there are no fees if a Scot attends a Scottish university.  Under EU law, this has to be the same for all other EU countries, so EU students study in Scotland for free.  Currently, there are domestic fees in England (because the education system in the two places is managed separately) for anyone from the UK, and domestic fees in Scotland for anyone who lives in the UK but outwith Scotland.  Clear as mud?

 

If Scotland is a separate country within the EU, then it will have to let English students study here for free, which is economically untenable.  I keep telling Scottish friends that a vote for independence is a vote for university fees for their children, because Scotland will have to introduce fees for its own students in order to charge rest-of-EU students (including the English) the same.  And if Scotland is a separate country outwith the EU, then yes, England could charge overseas (not domestic) fees to Scots.  

 

Secondarily: the UK universities are supported centrally by government grants for research.  It's the way that the whole PhD and postdoc education system is financed.  There is no way of knowing if the Scottish government will be able to match those grants.

 

In the end, as a PP said, the economics are unknowable, so most people will vote with their hearts.

 

L

[Caroline]

 

 

 

 

She would only have to pay taxes on overseas income if she lived in Scotland.  The US is among only one or two countries that demands taxes of their expatriate citizens on worldwide income.

 

 

 

L

 

 

They own multiple hotels in Scotland. They understand what it would do to their taxes. They have actually looked into the situation.

[Laura Corin]

They own multiple hotels in Scotland. They understand what it would do to their taxes. They have actually looked into the situation.

 

Yes - that's a different situation: they would then be Scottish people with Scottish income.  I did not realise that they had taxable income within Scotland from your previous post.

 

L

[stripe]

I don't really care either way, as long as the US doesn't try to mess with any of it. I just think the government tends to stick thier noses in where it don't belong. Like the Middle East, they have been fighting amongst themselves for centuries, and nothing we do is really going to change that.

Well, there aren't too many places that have lived utterly without conflict, including the US, which has had its fair share of wars. But if it's outside interference that causes problems, why not acknowledge the role that colonial powers or other countries had in things like carving up the area into separate countries, suppressing and promoting various factions, suppressing the existing culture and language, propping up dictators/royal families, or the displacement of Palestinians? When conflict is created or enouraged by outsiders, it seems disingenuous to suggest there is a natural tendency of war. Jews, for example, had a long history of peaceful life in the Middle East ; the conflict is only recent.

 

I am sympathetic to the Scottish yearning for independence. I think it's always sort of sad when issues are resolved (or attempted to) so late.

[creekland]

1.) Our need for independence was quite different than theirs, so I wouldn't draw any comparisons between the two.

 

...

 

This would be much better if the numbers were more lopsided one way or the other.  A slim vote for independence will mean a lot of people against it will likely be screwed economically which will lead to additional internal issues.

 

Any country's reason for wanting independence does not really matter to me.  What matters is if it can be decided peacefully rather than "might makes right."

 

I totally agree with regards to your last two sentences.  Hardship with a vast majority vote is one thing.  Without it is completely another.